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explo

TTM Export Deliveries

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Having purchased CEDR since the start I have now acquired 2 full years of data. This makes trend analysis a meaningful and fun exercise. I did a trailing twelve months (TTM) trend analysis of CN9 that I'd like to share with the club (as always odyd, feel free to delete it if you think it is excessive exposure of data). Each month in the attached chart represents the sum of monthly exports the past 12 months. By using 12 month compounded exports the seasonality effect is eliminated from the trend lines and the trendlines should thus reflect pure competive strength trend on the global market.

 

It's quite clear that the "investable" CN4 have had a strong trend in the global market share competition. It is also clear that financially stressed Suntech and China Sunergy lost a lot with their hands financially tied. Also significantly financially stressed Yingli with nose just above water (unlike Suntech and CSUN) lost their dominance. Slightly less stressed Renesola have had trouble growing their global presence after their huge success in 2012 and early 2013. Note that their relatively new global OEM manufacturing base might distort CEDR's reflection of their global shipments for recent months. HSOL always having mediocre product offering and marketing compared to leaders is a long-term lagger that grows slower. Despite having been around much longer as module brand than many others they achive less volume, especially considering that a lot of their exports lately are tolled QCELLs modules.

 

Edit:

 

I'm adding an index style chart, where they all start at 100 in June 2013. This illustrates the difference in growth rates more clearly. Solar9 in total grew global presence with 17% the past year. Biggest losers Suntech and CSUN lost 50% of their presence, while biggest winners Jinko and JA gained around 90% global presence.

 

Edit2:

 

I'm adding total shipment charts as well for the same period. The monthly data was based on estimates and interpolation of monthly domestic shipments from quarterly total shipments and monthly export data. Some definitions are needed. For total shipments only external products sales related shipments are included. Any shipments related to internal downstream projects, processing service for other brands or warranty replacements etc. are thus excluded. For exports this is not true. There all shipments are included, but in most cases internal downstream projects and processing service for other brands are likely more negligible than for domestic shipments (HSOL tolling QCELLs module and exporting them to high ASP markets and CSIQ global projects being the most significant exceptions). For 14Q2 the guided/guestimated total external module shipments was used.

 

Note that Suntech could not be included in total shipments as there's no visibility there, but I kept them in export charts since although Suntech ADS is worthless Wuxi Suntech is still a panel market player, now in the hands of the new cowboy in town (Shunfeng). Module exports grew 17% for Solar9 in the period, but total external module shipments grew 40% for Solar8. This is partially explained by Suntech drag not being included in total shipments and domestic shipment growing fast than international (naturally as China market has grown faster than international market the past 2 years).

 

Note also that the "domestic" sales part (diff between total and export shipments) actually would include international module manufacturing too. SOL and CSIQ should have the most significant impact from that.

 

A couple of interesting conclusions are that several of those losing market share on the international scene have been able to exploit domestic demand to retain utilization levels despite that loss, but likely at the cost of lower margins. Yingli increasingly continue and CSUN, SOL and likely Suntech massively started to rely on domestic demand to keep their manufacturing lines busy, while HSOL are still skeptical about betting much on domestic market. Trina keep and CSIQ started to exploiting domestic demand peaks, while both being strong in international market between the domestic booms. Jinko maintain a strong and stable domestic presence while growing international presence. JA is reducing domestic presence and managing to more than offset that with fast growing international presence (applies to cells as well). Even though trend for CN4 leaders is not as strong for total shipments as for exports I still view this as a signal of the CN4 brand and financial strength. They gain in the most attractive markets that have tougher barriers, while the weak have to resort to the less attractive but more accessible domstestic market.

 

Edit3: Attached charts updated for Q2 actuals and July CEDR.

 

Edit4: Attached charts updated for August CEDR.

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Thanks guys.

 

Josh, yes total module shipment index could be plotted too (I'm only referring to module exports in the attached charts by the way), but on quarterly basis since we have that in the ERs (except for Suntech). Global market share index is a bit more complicated as we need quarterly market sizes too, but total shipment index would indicate share gained/lost within the group. Was this what you meant or did you mean a share (within group) view (instead of MW view) of export deliveries?

 

I'll see if I have some numbers of total module shipment lying around to put into a chart.

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I like the index view, it shows how Jinko and JA had drove the growth in the recent months. I am curious if JKS can or will be able to continue this growth in the incoming months. I think this could be more critical for the recognition of the company on the market than their energy gains in China.

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I like the index view, it shows how Jinko and JA had drove the growth in the recent months. I am curious if JKS can or will be able to continue this growth in the incoming months. I think this could be more critical for the recognition of the company on the market than their energy gains in China.

I agree, the index view is very illustrative for growth trends. I managed to find some old total shipment analysis data from ERs that I've kept and edited the original post to include that perspective.

Both Jinko and JA are aggressively expanding panel capacity to enable production volumes much higher than current shipments thus suggesting they believe their growth trend dominance will continue.

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Explo, 

 

If I'm reading the index concept correctly JASO has been outperforming as of late.

 

I'm getting interested in JASO .. do you have rough EPS estimates for 2Q 14?

 

I believe the consensus on Yahoo is $0.21. 

 

What' I'm concerned about are cell prices in China .. since JASO derives some revenues from the sale of cells. It looks like their module business has really been taking off however and they have very high effiiciencies.

 

Any additional color would be appreciated.

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JASO growth curve looks quite exponential. Trend continues with CN4 plus SOL growing faster than the rest (for SOL exports don't reflect global shipments as the produce panels globally through outsourcing).

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Attachments in first post of this thread have been updated for August CEDR. CN4 domination in TTM export growth is expanding.

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Explo, I am curious if you could create the US and Japan module delivery graphs using CEDR.

I am curious what we can see there.

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Explo, I am curious if you could create the US and Japan module delivery graphs using CEDR.

I am curious what we can see there.

I'll check if I have something in old sheets prepared for plug and plot. The index could be extreme for those with little presence in those markets a year ago, so I might need to skip that view (at least for some names).

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It took some work to collect 2 years of individual market data, but I have Japan ready now. The market breakdown data starts two months later than the total exports data, i.e. from September 2012 instead of July 2012, but as we have August CEDR in now that makes it an even 2 years of data with market breakdown.

I've attached the TTM Japan Module Deliveries. Note that only 4 companies had reached a delivery mass to Japan during the period from September 2012 to August 2013. It thus only makes sense to look at those 4 companies plus the Solar9 total for an index starting in August 2013. If we fast forward to March 2014 most companies had reached a history of 12 months of significant Japan shipments, so that's were I start the index that includes all Solar9. There is still reason to be careful as some companies, e.g. Jinko and CSUN never reached any level of significance in Japan. Jinko just waking up there looks like it is growing full steam there, but it is still too small volumes shipped to conclude that they are grabbing big market shares there.

Back to the original four - CSIQ, HSOL, JA and STP. Of these STP had negative growth the past year and only JA grew faster past year than the Solar9 group in Japan and that only first now after an impressive acceleration in August. CISQ and HSOL still have dominating market shares there together with JA, but they are all three chased by Trina and Yingli who entered later but are growing faster now.

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Thanks Explo.

What is interesting here, either Canadian has flatlined its presence due to more modules being available from others or shifted its priority to something else. In my opinion their volume is going down as they are focusing on plants not third party. Of course, that is my interpretation. 

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It was a bit easier to make a second market trench after having the system in place for the first one. Attached are the same plots for USA deliveries. In the case of USA CSUN is too insignificant to date to make it into any index. Jinko had a too insignificant start in USA to make it into the first index, but instead replaces a losing STP in the second one.

There are some interesting dynamics going on here related to the tariff case.

STP who got the highest 2012 tariff (2014 tariff is irrelevant as it is higher and more supply-chain constraining) of named companies had basically already left the market in 2H12.

SOL who was not named in 2012 case and thus got 250% 2012 tariff and in 2014 case got bundled up with Jinko to get higher tariff in that case left the market in terms of exports from China already in April this year as risk of import cost impacts for ReneSola panels after TW loophole closure became unfeasible to bear.

YGE who dominated the market a year ago seems to focus a lot less on it now and is in severe decline there while still shipping signifcant volumes and holding on to third position. YGE got preferential treatment in the EU case, while in the USA case it was Trina who got it. Maybe YGE needed to shift customer focus to China, EU and Japan.

HSOL never got any growth momentum in the market and seems not much affected by the tariffs.

The whole group accelerated growth until May this year after which the growth flatlined.

Three companies however continued the accelerated growth from May to now - TSL, CSIQ and JKS. In TSL case they have the edge of lower tariff rate. JKS have the edge of lower production cost, which gives slightly lower tariff in dollar amount and a competitive total cost. CSIQ have projects under construction there as well as ability to convert cells (subject to US tariffs and thus cheap) to modules at one of the lowest costs in the industry which could motivate them to continue the US market focus.

JA grew well early this year in line with TSL and CSIQ, but from much lower level so with much less significance in absolute volumes. They however flatlined their US focus at the same time as the group flatline, YGE and SOL broke down and TSL, CSIQ and JKS started to dominate the growth in the market.

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Thanks Explo.

What is interesting here, either Canadian has flatlined its presence due to more modules being available from others or shifted its priority to something else. In my opinion their volume is going down as they are focusing on plants not third party. Of course, that is my interpretation. 

 

I made a new post on US market. See my point about incentive to focus on USA market and their growth there instead for CSIQ. It's only Trina that manages to grow quickly in both Japan and US market right now. CSIQ and JKS are growing in US while JA and Yingli are growing in Japan.

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I had China readily available too. So here it is. Note that this is estimated as reported quarterly shipments dirstributed monthly minus CEDR. Only 4 names are tracked. Only one index needed here, starting June 2013. The following five names were eliminated:

 

  • STP - no quarterly reports
  • CSUN and HSOL - too small China presence to estimate properly. Overseas factory (CSUN) and parent tolling (HSOL) distorts.
  • SOL - Foreign OEM fabs distort estimate.
  • CSIQ - Foreign factory and quite small presence distorts estimate.

 

Things to note is that the market grew a lot end of last year, while being in limbo so far this year. Yet again Trina is a growth dominator. YGE and JKS hang in there, while JA seem to lose interest in China. The picture could change once the market wakes up again the final four months of this year, but I think it is clear Trina will dominate growth this year too.

 

Trina as we've seen in guidance is the market leader now and with this market breakdown it is clear that growth leadership in 3 major markets is behind that global growth.

 

Only EU remains to be analyzed of the big 4 PV markets. It should only be slightly more difficult to collect.

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EU deliveries and Index (start August 2013) attached.

 

Of the five market breakdown (China, US, EU, Japan and ROW) viewed EU is the only one that declined past year.

 

STP and JASO are the only ones bigger than a year ago, which is primarily explained by their early exit, i.e. past years growth came from a low level (lowest among peers).

 

YGE, TSL and SOL were clear leaders in the market a year ago and the development of the market (exports from China to EU) have very much followed their development which been quite in synch we a quite recent rebound to growth.

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ROW deliveries and Index (start August 2013) attached.

 

While the 4 other markets have shown radical changes with Japan and USA having explosive growth from already respectable levels last year, China having high growth from high level last year and EU having severe decline from from high levels last year, the ROW market have shown stable growth from a mid-size level.

 

Clear gainers in ROW the last year are SOL, YGE and JKS.

 

TTM market size ranking a year ago for the group:

 

1. EU

2. China

3. ROW

4. Japan

5. USA

 

TTM market size ranking now for the group:

 

1. China

2. Japan

3. USA

4. ROW

5. EU

 

 

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Thanks. And here's the final result of the 2 year CEDR collection by market. Attached is the Solar9 TTM Exports from China broken down by the 4 major destinations.

 

The conclusion is that the export market for Solar9 grew by 20% (in MW size) the past year despite severe contraction by EU as USA and Japan expanded a lot. USA have stagnated since May this year, but a slowly rebounding EU seems to pick up some of that slack. Meanwhile Japan despite having highest growth past year seems unstoppable.

 

Besides this 20% growth in the exports market for Solar9 we know that they have grown TTM shipments a lot in domestic market too the past year.

 

The curve looks solid. Nice to have hard data on the state of the market for our companies in days like these.

 

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After a gloomy week I thought I'd add some to the positive note it ended on after all.

 

I've updated the CEDR TTM charts. The CN4 lead keeps extending and there's nothing indicating their curves are bending. Nice to consult the hard data in these times.

 

 

 

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