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odyd

SunPower (SPWR)

365 posts in this topic

21 hours ago, explo said:

It's part of a resolution to a conflict. SPWR is likely using the market conditions to get a cell plant interest for pennies as part of a conflict resolution during times when multi-Si cell prices have crashed below 20 cents. When it's a buyers market it is the time to make those counter-intuitive (buying into glut) capacity purchases.

As part of the resolution, I get it, but this is not the best financially for them. $170M for 400MW sounds costly and that is why offset by 100MW purchase of modules, still costly. There is no offset to improve GM, as the jv cell prices would not have margin when bought from that end of the production by SunPower. Plus it is old meal when original capacity was erected. Forced hand in my view, at best.

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2 hours ago, odyd said:

As part of the resolution, I get it, but this is not the best financially for them. $170M for 400MW sounds costly and that is why offset by 100MW purchase of modules, still costly. There is no offset to improve GM, as the jv cell prices would not have margin when bought from that end of the production by SunPower. Plus it is old meal when original capacity was erected. Forced hand in my view, at best.

I know that $170m sounds like a horribly high price, but if they for example were in conflict over whether they owed 150m from some take-or-pay wafer purchase agreement or not and they said we'll buy the your cell fab stake for the very high price of $170m if you eliminate your claim then it might have been a good deal for SPWR by playing on the general distress of cell capacity assets now and the counter party's potential interest to resolve a conflict and exit distressed assets. My point is we don't know the "price" unless we know the value of the conflict resolution.

 

 

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During the conference, they have said they have over 850M in high-quality PPA projects.

I have added all project they have with PPA, and that is the only 627MW there are over 760MW in total with PPA, so 100MW I am missing from overall.

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I think I know what they are doing, they are talking about 224MW in construction in LAM and adding to 627MW with PPA, calling it 850MW, but 224MW does not have PPA, according to them.

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I read the cc transcript finally. Mgmt have certainly done a good job selling their situation. Mainly defense on debt questions was somewhat shallow, but I can see that those guys sounded upbeat.

I am not buying it.

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4 hours ago, sunnypease said:

Sunpower in a JV deal to mass produce their "p series".  Up to 5GW of them!

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2017/02/28/sunpower-dongfang-to-establish-5-gw-p-series-cell-module-factory/

It doesn't say when they'll ramp to 5GW though.

Thanks. This kind of shows Solarworld and others claiming CN dumping that the lower prices of China PV panels comes from lower cost due to an efficient PV supply-chain in China and not from subsidies and dumping.

When CN companies diversify manufacturing base from China to Malaysia and US companies from Malaysia to China they are just affirming eachother in that business rationale trumps political rethoric.

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Agreed.  Unfortunately, the EU has decided to keep tariffs in place for another 1.5 years: 

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2017/03/01/-european-commission-confirms-18-month-extension-of-antidumping-and-anti-subsidy-tariffs-with-a-staged-phase-out/

 

Very lame when the Earth's climate is at stake.  And how many GW does Europe produce?  Looking at solarWorld's website, it says a total of about 800MW in Europe.

Meanwhile Germany is struggling to phase out & nuclear.  Hmm, wonder why.

Is there another big European producer like SolarWorld?

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38 minutes ago, sunnypease said:

Agreed.  Unfortunately, the EU has decided to keep tariffs in place for another 1.5 years: 

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2017/03/01/-european-commission-confirms-18-month-extension-of-antidumping-and-anti-subsidy-tariffs-with-a-staged-phase-out/

 

Very lame when the Earth's climate is at stake.  And how many GW does Europe produce?  Looking at solarWorld's website, it says a total of about 800MW in Europe.

Meanwhile Germany is struggling to phase out & nuclear.  Hmm, wonder why.

Is there another big European producer like SolarWorld?

Although the unfair competition argument is still very questionable to me at least there seems to be some acknowledgment and consideration of the negative effects of protectionism now in an effort to balance the protection right with the economic and climate harm it is causing.

“This approach balances our legitimate right to protect our industry from unfair competition from dumped or subsidized imports, with the need to consider other companies that rely on these imports to develop their final products and employ thousands of people,” the spokesperson added.

The “essential role” that PV is playing in achieving greenhouse gas reduction goals was “an important factor” in the decision.

 

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Just now, explo said:

Is there another big European producer like SolarWorld?

The big and successful PV companies of Europe are actually exporters of polysilicon and factory equipment to the Chinese PV panel manufacturers and the distributors and project development companies that import PV panels. These former great European companies were indirectly hurt by the EU tariffs as their customer got hurt and ordered less products and then even more as China retaliated by slapping tariffs on their exports to China. The latter were directly hurt by higher supply costs.

The biggest victim in the trade war is likely the US polysilicon producers though. Nobody has gained on this trade and the very least those who started it.

 

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