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dydo

SunPower (SPWR)

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9 hours ago, dydo said:

$568M loss in Q4.  One more year of this and gone?

It's another great money losing machine in the industry. They had 1 billion in equity a year ago and lost 85% of that in one year. It is hard to understand the excitement about that causing it to rise from 6's to 9's in Q4. Investors can't separate those that create shareholder value from those who destroy it in the solar industry.

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Well.. nobody even commenting on SPWR today?

They are exiting the power plant business.

And they seem to be running tight on the money.  Yet they are still shooting for profitability end of year.

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ok.  guess it's just me here on SPWR again..

They seem to have negative margins in all segments now?  

Their numbers & forecasts assume that they will receive an exclusion to the tariffs.

And they are rolling out some magical new solar technology that I did not understand.  Anyone else get it?  Plus, they don't plan to spend CapEx to deploy this new tech themselves, rather they will seek partners.

Somehow the stock is up.  Surreal!

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15 hours ago, sunnypease said:

ok.  guess it's just me here on SPWR again..

They seem to have negative margins in all segments now?  

Their numbers & forecasts assume that they will receive an exclusion to the tariffs.

And they are rolling out some magical new solar technology that I did not understand.  Anyone else get it?  Plus, they don't plan to spend CapEx to deploy this new tech themselves, rather they will seek partners.

Somehow the stock is up.  Surreal!

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPWR?p=SPWR&.tsrc=fin-srch-v1

 

This is a dog of a company. They lost $478Million this quarter and are expecting another $195-$215M for Q3.

 

For those that thought lease arrangements were a good business model in the past, Sunpower took a $50M writedown on the lease agreement assets in Q2.

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I see them as the American Yingli.  Dead but still alive somehow.

Does anybody know why they have $1B in market cap with a book value of $35M ???

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2 hours ago, Klothilde said:

I see them as the American Yingli.  Dead but still alive somehow.

Does anybody know why they have $1B in market cap with a book value of $35M ???

I think it's all about the name.  They could be a permian basin shale oil extractor and still catch an environmentalist bid with a name like that.  In fact, they are in cahoots with a major oil company.

Getting my popcorn ready for Travis' report!

Edited by sunnypease

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SunnyPease, 

Please make an effort to read the transcript in order to contribute meaningful feedback on the earnings report. Let me assist you with that.

"They seem to have negative margins in all segments now?"

No they do not. 0% on PowerPlants. 6% on Commercial, 20% on Resi.

Since they had plants write off due to refurbishing Fab 3 to NGT their GAAP numbers took a $460M hit. 

"Their numbers & forecasts assume that they will receive an exclusion to the tariffs."

No, this is wrong. Not sure where you got it from. See transcript:

As a reminder, our guidance assumes our estimated impact of the Section 201 tariffs for Q3 and 2018 as a whole. We expect Q3 tariffs to be around $25 million.

"And they are rolling out some magical new solar technology that I did not understand.  Anyone else get it?" 

See transcript below:

First of all, NGT is based on a six inch M4 wafer platform compared with our five inch legacy wafers. The resultant cells produce almost 70% more power per unit. Our technology has developed a simplified manufacturing flow that enables 25% cell efficiency with fewer steps and fewer production tools, thereby reducing capital expenditures.

 

Hope this helps.

 

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13 hours ago, SCSolar said:

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPWR?p=SPWR&.tsrc=fin-srch-v1

 

This is a dog of a comppany. They lost $478Million this quarter and are expecting another $195-$215M for Q3.

 

For those that thought lease arrangements were a good business model in the past, Sunpower took a $50M writedown on the lease agreement assets in Q2.

Sounds like a negative equity by Q3, that is a sign that the company is done. However, it may not be with Total paying for it.

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Robert,

In Q3 sale of lease portfolio will result in

"proceeds to be about $200 million in cash and the buyer will assume or pay off $436 million of debt for total proceeds of $636 million."

So I am not sure how you come up with negative equity in Q3

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4 minutes ago, stolypin said:

Robert,

In Q3 sale of lease portfolio will result in

"proceeds to be about $200 million in cash and the buyer will assume or pay off $436 million of debt for total proceeds of $636 million."

So I am not sure how you come up with negative equity in Q3

I thought to have one of $35M faced with I quote below was explaining it:

"The company's third quarter GAAP guidance is as follows: revenue of $425 million to $475 million, gross margin of negative 1.0 percent to positive 1.0 percent and a net loss of $215 million to $195 million."

 

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Ok, I see. You just didn't take it into account since asset sales are not guided in the guidance. 

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10 hours ago, stolypin said:

Ok, I see. You just didn't take it into account since asset sales are not guided in the guidance. 

Correct me if I am wrong, asset sales are not revenue. They may have some profit built positive or negative . If like  CSIQ, the assets sales gains show up  as a line item  of other income. I would presume that the Net Income guidance would include any net gains from asset sales.

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1 hour ago, SCSolar said:

Correct me if I am wrong, asset sales are not revenue. They may have some profit built positive or negative . If like  CSIQ, the assets sales gains show up  as a line item  of other income. I would presume that the Net Income guidance would include any net gains from asset sales.

Yes. You are right. The asset sales like one 8point3 Energy Partners was recognized in the cash flow. That transaction of $360M turned around $2M cash after they paid the debenture off. Those are likely in the other income on the income statement. Despite the toss of high figures from another asset selling, the net income loss/deficit will wipe the equity to a negative figure, as they are included. That is the state of Yingli in a making. SPWR is on the cusp of bankruptcy, imo. 

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19 hours ago, stolypin said:

Ok, I see. You just didn't take it into account since asset sales are not guided in the guidance. 

So you think that will result in larger than 160m profit (equity gain)? From what was said above and if they don’t sell their stock their equity in Q3 will be below

35 -195 = -160 million

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Explo,

"So you think that will result in larger than 160m profit (equity gain)?"

Yes, it surely will be. Please see excerpt from transcript below:

"So we have lease, microinverter and power plant, all three we expect to close in Q3. And we have not guided a number for proceeds from those transactions. I would say it could meaningfully be used to ramp NGT.."

 

Edited by stolypin

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1 hour ago, stolypin said:

Explo,

"So you think that will result in larger than 160m profit (equity gain)?"

Yes, it surely will be. Please see excerpt from transcript below:

"So we have lease, microinverter and power plant, all three we expect to close in Q3. And we have not guided a number for proceeds from those transactions. I would say it could meaningfully be used to ramp NGT.."

 

Profit is not the same as cash generated from the sale. They may recover 20-30%  equity invested which is not profit. That equity returned as cash can be invested into NGT.

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