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Guest Klothilde

First Solar (FSLR)

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Everyone just hush up with your facts, I’m 50 cents away from breaking even on my remaining shares from before last earnings. 

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15 hours ago, Mark said:

Everyone just hush up with your facts, I’m 50 cents away from breaking even on my remaining shares from before last earnings. 

😥😥😥

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1 hour ago, SCSolar said:

😥😥😥

Yeah, thanks for that folks.  I was so close.  Now I'm down another 4%... I didn't dump yet, however.  Alas, my other bnft play worked out as I'd hoped for now to ease the frustrating pain of being 25 cents from break even this morning on this FSLR junk.  

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23 hours ago, MVA said:

First Solar to pay $350M to settle class action lawsuit

Oh well, they weren't using that money anyway.  So between this and predictable lack of Japanese movement (unless their worst in class investor relations/public relations just hasn't said), looks like yet another disappointing quarter and yet another repeat of the 'just wait til next quarter!' mantra.  

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Or maybe they really just wanted to clear this off the radar because Chevron or some oil major is interested in a buyout and didn't want the baggage.  😉

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1 hour ago, Mark said:

Oh well, they weren't using that money anyway.  So between this and predictable lack of Japanese movement (unless their worst in class investor relations/public relations just hasn't said), looks like yet another disappointing quarter and yet another repeat of the 'just wait til next quarter!' mantra.  

This is money straight out of my pocket and I'm mad as HELL.

The only thought that gives me solace in such a hard time is that now the black swan is out and the air is hopefully clear.  And that it wasn't apocalyptic as in other cases (some in the past and some still pending).

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7 minutes ago, Klothilde said:

This is money straight out of my pocket and I'm mad as HELL.

The only thought that gives me solace in such a hard time is that now the black swan is out and the air is hopefully clear.  And that it wasn't apocalyptic as in other cases (some in the past and some still pending).

It is not any money out of your pocket. In fact they are up good today because it removes clouds.

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It removes clouds but I put a lot of value and emotion into book equity and that definitely got a hit.  With $350M they could buy 1/3 of JKS for instance, just think about it.

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6 minutes ago, Klothilde said:

It removes clouds but I put a lot of value and emotion into book equity and that definitely got a hit.  With $350M they could buy 1/3 of JKS for instance, just think about it.

It also shows their management (at least their past management--has it changed since 2012?) is just as crooked as any Chinese companies are accused of being.

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For what it's worth, the options activity here has been very bullish for the past week or so.  Lots of volume for mostly strikes over 60.  The January 24th $63s are kinda nuts.  Maybe its hedging, maybe its someone knowing something, but I'd take 63 for the trash I still hold.

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On 1/6/2020 at 10:52 AM, MVA said:

The Rueters article suggests there are likely more to come on the lawsuit front.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-first-solar-settlement/first-solar-to-pay-350-million-to-end-shareholder-lawsuit-avert-trial-idUSKBN1Z51IT

 

"First Solar said related lawsuits by plaintiffs that chose to sue on their own rather than join the class action, and by plaintiffs suing company officials in a so-called derivative lawsuit, remain pending."

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1 hour ago, Mark said:

Barclays double downgrade with a $49 target.  

Yeah... I told Klothilde, a month ago: Drop FSLR and buy Canadian. But she will never admit that FSLR is a loser.

"Systems has lost 80%+ of its U.S. market share. And the Street has completely missed it," Barclays analyst Moses Sutton writes."

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38 minutes ago, MVA said:

Yeah... I told Klothilde, a month ago: Drop FSLR and buy Canadian. But she will never admit that FSLR is a loser.

"Systems has lost 80%+ of its U.S. market share. And the Street has completely missed it," Barclays analyst Moses Sutton writes."

Let' see how CSIQ's numbers look when their ASP drops below 25 cts.  Did somebody say humongous OPEX?

Now Moses definitely thinks he discovered the promised land.  However he completely missed that FSLR decided years ago to downsize their systems to 1GW a year and focus instead on modules.  As Einstein said:  Two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity.

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41 minutes ago, Klothilde said:

Let' see how CSIQ's numbers look when their ASP drops below 25 cts.  Did somebody say humongous OPEX?

Now Moses definitely thinks he discovered the promised land.  However he completely missed that FSLR decided years ago to downsize their systems to 1GW a year and focus instead on modules.  As Einstein said:  Two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity.

Like I said: a month ago CSIQ was a good buy. Now, not so much.... I am, personally, out of solars, and just waiting to see what happens during next 1-2 months. Too much of new production capacity means: 2011-2012 glut is possible again... And single digits prices for shares of our beloved solar companies is a possibility.

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