Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Guest Klothilde

First Solar (FSLR)

Recommended Posts

13 hours ago, Klothilde said:

If I were FSLR I would put U.S. expansion on hold. The time has come to preserve cash and focus on technology. Yet again. 

Maybe they know they can get $/W down.  Maybe that is part of the reason why they sold out a couple years, knowing that's all they need to get this first version of production going, allowing them shift into whatever they have next.  Just dreaming...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Whatever it is they know, whatever the plan may be and however China affects it, I'd like to hear an update on it from the horse's mouth.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Mark said:

Whatever it is they know, whatever the plan may be and however China affects it, I'd like to hear an update on it from the horse's mouth.  

Do you think IR would answer us little guys and let us know if they'll be effected?   I hope this selling has chilled out a bit.  The stock got a few bids near the close.

Edited by sunnypease

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, sunnypease said:

Do you think IR would answer us little guys and let us know if they'll be effected?   I hope this selling has chilled out a bit.  The stock got a few bids near the close.

They should, I mean all the other Chinese cos do and always have. CSIQ got back to me within a couple hours.  Jinko, Trina... were always quite responsive. Today was a institutional buying day, tomorrow will be our first up day in a while.  There was big money buying at quite a few times today, far more than selling for a change.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

While trying to find solace in some Seeking Alpha posts, I came across George Wind.  

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3363088-first-solar-defended-baird-citing-comfort-revenue-visibility#comment-78784520

He says that there are two big things that we need to worry about with FSLR.

1. they have not fully pulled of their S6 manufacturing ability.  With power levels around 400W and certification still has not happened. 

and then, longer term 2.:  PERC technology is getting better & better & he believes will be cheaper than CdTe.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, sunnypease said:

While trying to find solace in some Seeking Alpha posts, I came across George Wind.  

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3363088-first-solar-defended-baird-citing-comfort-revenue-visibility#comment-78784520

He says that there are two big things that we need to worry about with FSLR.

1. they have not fully pulled of their S6 manufacturing ability.  With power levels around 400W and certification still has not happened. 

and then, longer term 2.:  PERC technology is getting better & better & he believes will be cheaper than CdTe.  

That George guy is a notable FSLR basher on SA. I replied to him with links to Series 6 ' certifications:

http://database.ul.com/cgi-bin/XYV/template/LISEXT/1FRAME/showpage.html?name=QIIA.E355993&ccnshorttitle=Photovoltaic+Modules+and+Panels+with+System+Voltage+Ratings+Over+600+Volts&objid=1082552828&cfgid=1073741824&version=versionless&parent_id=1081808401&sequence=1

https://blog.iec.ch/2018/05/iecre-issues-first-solar-pv-certificate/

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, sunnypease said:

While trying to find solace in some Seeking Alpha posts, I came across George Wind.  

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3363088-first-solar-defended-baird-citing-comfort-revenue-visibility#comment-78784520

He says that there are two big things that we need to worry about with FSLR.

1. they have not fully pulled of their S6 manufacturing ability.  With power levels around 400W and certification still has not happened. 

and then, longer term 2.:  PERC technology is getting better & better & he believes will be cheaper than CdTe.  

Which will be cheaper at the time is up for debate and all depends on how you look at it. I believe they both will be about the same cost per watt to manufacture. I would probably give FSLR the advantage in real life power output due to their thermal characteristics and low light advantages per watt. I would give a cost to install per watt to the cSi due to higher power levels in the newer technologies. In the end on an LCOE perspective they will probably be similar and that LCOE is the bottom line.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Klothilde said:

Thank you for clearing up those worries.

Series 6 efficiency is something like 16-17%?  

Do you know if the technology to allow >1V open circuit voltage achieved at the University of Washington back in 2006 has been incorporated (doping with phosphorous?)

FSLR in their own lab managed 22% efficiency, so... we can hope to get there in Series 6 some day?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Farhad Ebrahimi raised his stake in FSLR from 5.09% to 6.17%.  Thanks for buying the dip.  Got more money to throw at this?  :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/nevada-beat-arizona-record-low-solar-ppa-price

2.3cents / kWh bid in Nevada.   Can First Solar compete with bids that low?   Article says the ITC is included.. over a 25 year term.

Maybe these prices were quoted with some of that pre 201 stockpiling?

 

ps.  When will I learn that when solars drop, buy SPWR?  It lives on unicorns and rainbows.

Edited by sunnypease

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Dang well I forgot this rate hike was coming.  And another two after it. 

RE has not really ever seen higher (more normal) interest rates, has it?  Though I suppose everything out there must also deal with the higher interest rates, including loans to coal companies?  Oil & gas exploration?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, sunnypease said:

When will I learn that when solars drop, buy SPWR?  It lives on unicorns and rainbows.

I think some analyst wrote that they would have a hard time to compete with cheap panels now. Analysts.. SPWR can't compete on price. That's why China has taken so much market share, because they can. Since SPWR is not competing on price they might not see the same margin erosion (not that they have any to erode). SPWR's problems doesn't start now. They have always existed and been of a permanent nature. They difference is that other will have problems too now. Temporary ones and when they get out of them (by rolling up their sleeves and making SPWR level high tech cheap) SPWR's relative problems vs it competitors will increase again. Other already troubled stocks like YGE might trade irrationally green when all else are red it is sort of feeding on the others getting sick. Itself is already dead so it has nothing to lose. Somehow the market feels better about the dead guy when all the strong ones are getting sick.

It is not healthy for a solar stock to not react to the recent event:

https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/YGE#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

The link might not work. Plot YGE,JKS,SPWR,FSLR for the past month. The strong ones have suffered the most.

Edited by explo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thank you Explo.

 

Klothilde... George over on SA is sticking with the idea that FSLR has not yet passed a level of UL certification that will allow them to sell to third parties.   Specifically:

   Certification of Module Sunlight Irradiance efficiency and PID resistance, or 30 year (or at least 25 year) degradation maximum (should be 0.5% per year or better). Also no temperature coefficients."

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3363088-first-solar-defended-baird-citing-comfort-revenue-visibility#comment-78806612

Yikes how did I get myself into this situation of a large long FSLR position in the day & age of QT & rising interest rates.

Next ER July 26...  I hope that will allay some fears?  I'm trying hard to imagine what the next bit of positive news will be for FSLR.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ALERT ALERT

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/06/15/us-to-slap-additional-25-tariffs-on-chinese-cells-modules/

Isn't this GOOD news for FSLR??

51 calls expiring today are selling for just 21 cents each.  I just bought 5 on this news.

Or is this somehow bad for FSLR??

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh I'm out with the girls so I cannot inquire. But I don't see how this can be bad for FSLR. ASPs should go up in the U.S. and so should margins.

But is it for real?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Klothilde said:

Oh I'm out with the girls so I cannot inquire. But I don't see how this can be bad for FSLR. ASPs should go up in the U.S. and so should margins.

 But is it for real?

I feel like this could be one of those pretty rare chances where solar takes a day to react to big news.

The China news broke on Thursday but market did not really move until Monday.

Same with this I think.  I'm thinking of buying some more calls.  Bought a few hundred bucks worth now.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, sunnypease said:

ALERT ALERT

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/06/15/us-to-slap-additional-25-tariffs-on-chinese-cells-modules/

Isn't this GOOD news for FSLR??

51 calls expiring today are selling for just 21 cents each.  I just bought 5 on this news.

Or is this somehow bad for FSLR??

Uhhh.... so first, thanks a lot for posting this.  I hadn't been to PV Mag all day and didn't see this.  I've been too busy pacing around my office trying to decide whether to dump another batch of shares.  If this is true, then that's one of the two scenarios that Gordon said he may change his mind on his FSLR downgrade.  Not that he'll be out beating the $95 drum again on this, but if this stops the bleeding, then I'll just hold on to this big bag of poo a bit longer.  Thanks for posting.  Of all days to not check PV Magazine a few times in my normal routine, sunnypease to the rescue.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Everybody too busy buying Yoga pants stocks. 

One guy on Stocktwits explained it so eloquently:  Not touching this until oil recovers.  

US stock market is run by frat boys with "analysts" telling them how to think. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I take that back... He said he would only reverse his position on the stock if the Trump administration’s solar tariffs were extended and China reversed its position.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Mark said:

I take that back... He said he would only reverse his position on the stock if the Trump administration’s solar tariffs were extended and China reversed its position.

How about a double tariff?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't think that helps a ton, simply because of the timing of the expiration of the 201 tariffs and FSLR being sold out until then.  Maybe Klothilde will have some good insight for us or maybe I'm wrong.  I'd say all this does is shore up the domestic prices so they don't have to renegotiate to accommodate the collapse in ASPs going on right now.   If in fact those were domestic projects they may have had to re-negotiate or otherwise adjust.  Dunno what to believe there between Roth's checks and what everyone else says.  The damn company won't tell us a stinkin' thing, that's for sure.  Emailed them again this morning and crickets.  I don't know that double tariff is enough to really make a big difference other than now the residential installers are gonna get stiffed too and solar in the US will be stuck until we get the orange clown out.  I'd love to be told I'm wrong, so fire away with a hole in my thinking, please?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't see any holes in your thinking.  

I think the reaction today was like...  No whammies.  No whammies.  And then BOOM 6 whammies all on the same day.

* Chinese Tariffs.  People do not know exactly what the effect of this will be or how far it will go.

* Barrons article downgrading utilities (power plant buyers) due to rate rise... though Thursday, post rate rise FSLR rallied. https://www.barrons.com/articles/utilities-and-real-estate-get-downgraded-as-the-fed-raises-rates-1529016650?mod=hp_RTA

* part of the tariffs include tariffs on batteries.  A lot of people talk solar storage as being crucial to solar.  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-15/trump-s-tariffs-are-a-glancing-blow-for-wind-power-batteries

* oil dropped 3.75%

* today was options expiration day.  Tail wagging the dog.

* doom & gloom articles published Thursday & Friday from big business news sources:  

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2018-06-15/how-trump-s-china-tariffs-impact-the-solar-industry-video   

https://www.economist.com/business/2018/06/14/can-the-solar-industry-survive-without-subsidies

A new one Friday night: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-15/trump-china-trade-spat-may-deal-solar-a-second-tariff-blow

 

 

Yes, I think the Emergency Klothilde light is flashing & spinning now.  What do you think of what is going on now Klothilde?  Do you see a likely reason for what FSLR would sell off today?

Edited by sunnypease

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And clearly my head isn’t in a good space.  I didn’t even think to think that nobody even really produces/ships from China anymore anyway.  So this doesn’t benefit FSLR at all, but also doesn’t really hurt anyone else either.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Mark said:

And clearly my head isn’t in a good space.  I didn’t even think to think that nobody even really produces/ships from China anymore anyway.  So this doesn’t benefit FSLR at all, but also doesn’t really hurt anyone else either.

Think of it as a global pile up of panels in the distribution channels (including production sites, market central warehouses, close to consumer small stocks, in week long transit on ocean to maybe no longer optimal destination). The non-movement of products will cost money. Products will be moved at a loss if it prevents a higher loss of not moving them. Markets that can move products to US at low cost will move products there and the products those market need will be moved from piled up markets that have higher cost of moving their products to US. The sum of it all is that movement costs have gone up (US are blocking the existing highways) and demand has gone down (China is feeling satisfied and want to digest for a while). All will suffer from it, some more than others.

Edited by explo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, explo said:

Think of it as a global pile up of panels in the distribution channels (including production sites, market central warehouses, close to consumer small stocks, in week long transit on ocean to maybe no longer optimal destination). The non-movement of products will cost money. Products will be moved at a loss if it prevents a higher loss of not moving them. Markets that can move products to US at low cost will move products there and the products those market need will be moved from piled up markets that have higher cost of moving their products to US. The sum of it all is that movement costs have gone up (US are blocking the existing highways) and demand has gone down (China is feeling satisfied and want to digest for a while). All will suffer from it, some more than others.

Then there is the CdTe express lane.  Direct from Ohio.  The biggest swing state.  Or from Vietnam (who doesn't love Pho.. and it's not China!)

This is a company that is officially expanding at this point.  It's an American "success story".  If Trump gets too much heat on tariffs, First Solar is the American worker he can put his arm around.

Plus, did we mention they have 2 years worth of production signed up for.  

So...  FSLR's US future looks great.  

Meanwhile their Europe/India/ROW/China story looks worse.  Lower Si module prices will mean very tough competition in those markets, correct?

 

This, to me, is the biggest cause for concern in FSLR's story going forward...

thoughts?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've realized yet another possible gremlin...

First Solar has recently had some big projects in Turkey.   As many are aware the Turkish Lira is down about 30-40% and had not yet started to recover.  Meanwhile the fed tightening will cause further stress to other ROW markets.

Thoughts anyone?  Klothilde.. have you thought this point over?

Edited by sunnypease

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My OpenInvest portfolio (~$5,500 in S&P 500 type firms--but minus all fossil fuel, large mining, tobacco, chemical, utility and big banks) just purchased 1 share of FSLR on Friday.  Normally solar stocks plummet 25-75% after I first purchase .  Fair warning!

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • Donate

    Please donate to support this community. We appreciate all donations!

    Donate Sidebar by DevFuse
  • Upcoming Events

    No upcoming events found
  • Forum Statistics

    • Total Topics
      33
    • Total Posts
      92,894
  • Who's Online (See full list)

    There are no registered users currently online



×
×
  • Create New...