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Guest Klothilde

First Solar (FSLR)

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17 hours ago, Klothilde said:

First Solar winning a dispatchable power tender with a combination of PV and battery storage:
http://investor.firstsolar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/aps-first-solar-partner-arizonas-largest-battery-storage-project
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-12/a-powerful-mix-of-solar-and-batteries-is-beating-natural-gas

Things are starting to get interesting in solarland guys and gals.  No time to be switching to marijuana yet.

GTM analysis of what this contract means:
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/50-megawatt-battery-will-give-arizona-peak-power-from-the-sun#gs.LmA_2IM

Is it nerdy to get excited over stuff like this?? 

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11 hours ago, dydo said:

LOL, not so much. Let's see what SPWR will bring out tomorrow. I am surprised how solid they traded today, forgetting they are reporting after the close. I got some predictions around $5 per share for this one by mid-year, although I see you are holding the stock, so I guess all the best under the circumstances, as I do not have a skin in a game, but a proof of the point troll bet.

It's alright, I don't own much and I fully expect to take that capital loss sometime this year or next whenever it serves me best.  I can't see anything good coming out of the SPWR earnings and call today.

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Any pre-earnings commentary Klothilde? Would be interested to hear your predictions or what you're looking for, aside from the possible Nevada project.  Be curious to hear what you want to see/hear if you have a few moments to share.

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19 hours ago, Mark said:

Any pre-earnings commentary Klothilde? Would be interested to hear your predictions or what you're looking for, aside from the possible Nevada project.  Be curious to hear what you want to see/hear if you have a few moments to share.

At the moment I don't see too much upside for FSLR from a fundamentals point of view. The PPS already reflects the anticipated higher earnings of 2020 and beyond and imo there's still market and operational risk we need to work through to get there.

Regarding the ER I hope they post a slightly lower loss than what they are guiding (-0.37). In addition I'm interested in:
- an update on S6 roll-out incl. plant and product certifications
- the current demand picture globally and in the U.S. after the 201 resolution (demand freeze?)
- a possible further capacity increase of ~1GW in the U.S. after the 201 decision
- a possible increase of 2018 EPS guidance to $2+ as a result of the tariffs in place

Edited by Klothilde
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1 hour ago, Klothilde said:

Why announce this the day before earnings?  Bad news tomorrow or even better news coming tomorrow (NV?).  Theories?  Just seems odd to release that the day before, eh?

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2 hours ago, pg6solar said:

So FSLR missed revenues by a whopping 33%. If CSIQ would miss by that much, they would be down 20+%.

But they raised guidance going forward.  I think that's what's propping up the price.

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The last question on the call re: margin expansion was also encouraging.  But the part about everything being backloaded in 2018 and putting up two stinky quarters in the first half, eh... doesn't worry me, how it goes with solars, but WS hates it and we're due for more market corrections this year.   

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But there's only one analyst I really wanna hear from, where ya't Gordo?  You have to like the expanding margins in 2019+ with Series 6, project backlog, re-opening of Ohio line... there's a lot to like here.  

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Perhaps I'm being too greedy, but it seems like there is still some growth opportunity here not being taken advantage of with all the cash and bookings.  Not saying we need to go the CN4 route of going for volume, but I feel like FSLR could stand to take a little more risk in this environment.  Kinda sad to hear they're booked for the next 2 years.  Kinda limits the PPS until the efficiencies and resulting margin expansion shows up next year.  Just feel like right now, FSLR could safely take a bolder step than they are.  But again, maybe I'm just being greedy.

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3 hours ago, Klothilde said:

Annual report published:
http://investor.firstsolar.com/static-files/a2995596-28ac-4627-9e40-27684c0bec09
 

"As of December 31, 2017, we had entered into contracts with customers for the future sale of 6.5 GWDC of solar modules for an aggregate transaction price of $2.3 billion."

 

That's a long read.  Does it say over what timeframe (how many years), and at what profit margin?  In other words, can we extrapolate an EPS profile over the next few years?

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OMG I'm out wirh the girls but it looks yummy! Say hello to the new Ohio factory! I think EPS is above consensus, ain't it? Congrats to brats.

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1 minute ago, Klothilde said:

OMG I'm out wirh the girls but it looks yummy! Say hello to the new Ohio factory! I think EPS is above consensus, ain't it? Congrats to brats.

Yeah, pretty pumped... not sure the street will be tomorrow, but I'm pretty excited about the future here.  Yeah, beat on top and bottom line.

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Just now, solarpete said:

If it drops tomorrow, it should only be temporary, and an opportunity to enter a quick swing trade.  Looks good long-term.

Agreed.  I'm glad I didn't unload any shares leading up.  I feel comfortable here with whatever happens tomorrow.

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2 hours ago, Mark said:

Always sell the upgrades and good news, I guess.  

I think in this case it's the news that the tariffs that give First Solar its domestic price advantage might be even more short-lived than initially thought:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/biggest-threat-first-solar-investors-100300488.html

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1 hour ago, solarpete said:

I think in this case it's the news that the tariffs that give First Solar its domestic price advantage might be even more short-lived than initially thought:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/biggest-threat-first-solar-investors-100300488.html

I heard that as the excuse, but I'm not buying it.  And not just because Travis is peddling it.  I didn't read his latest gem, but I mean they're sold out into 2020.  By the time they actually have more capacity online and ready to take orders, those tariffs will be largely phased out anyway.  I never truly bought into the idea that tariffs were going to substantially impact FSLR in the first place, beyond locking in some longterm term bookings, which are already locked in now.  I feel like any benefit they got from tariffs has been baked in for a while.  I don't buy today's selloff as tariff removal fears.    

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