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Guest Klothilde

First Solar (FSLR)

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It came back nicely. 

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Wow, what was all that about?  A glitch in a trading program that was corrected?

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1 hour ago, Jetmoney said:

Wow, what was all that about?  A glitch in a trading program that was corrected?

Seems like tree shaking is even more prevalent in FSLR than the CNs had been.  Looking for a move to new 52 week high from here.  Just wish I'd have timed my entry a bit better!  Alas, I'm still making money.

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Agreed that new FSLR highs are probably on the way, sometime after 13 Jan, when Trump most likely announces new high tariffs on Chinese solar panels.  I'm sure you've all seen the news reports speculating about this.  He wants to punish China in general, and he seems oblivious to the possibility of losing tens of thousands of jobs in solar PV installation in the process.

I expect a short-term violent reaction, with JKS and CSIQ tanking (unless CSIQ is specifically excluded--which I doubt) and FSLR shooting up.  Yes, we on this forum know there are other factors (most of JKS' business is in China anyway, CSIQ has a buyout offer on the table, FSLR is already sold out for the next 2 years) that should dampen the effect of whatever decision is made, but I doubt the rest of the market does.

Could offer an opportunity in CSIQ if it does tank significantly below buyout offer.

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15 minutes ago, Klothilde said:

First Solar Remains Significantly Undervalued - A Comprehensive Valuation Update

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4136145-first-solar-remains-significantly-undervalued-comprehensive-valuation-update

How do you feel about their assumptions/projections, Klothilde?

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19 hours ago, Mark said:

How do you feel about their assumptions/projections, Klothilde?

Oh, I didn't read it, I just liked the headline and therefore posted it.  I will read later.

My thinking is that FSLR is currently fairly priced and there should not be much upside from a fundamentals point of view.  Specially with the increasingly likely scenario of a prolonged period of overcapacity and low margins for everybody from A to Zinc.

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