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Guest Klothilde

First Solar (FSLR)

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dydo    1,425
7 hours ago, explo said:

Yes that last question in the conference call gave the most interesting comment. Clearly the petition has Mark's mouth watering. Previous tariff applied to one country, China. Then  Taiwan took over cell supply. Then tariffs were applied to them too and then South Korea, Japan and South East Asia could supply. Now nobody outside US can supply.

Regarding CSIQ I never liked that they wasted efforts on US to just tap demand without any profits staying the industry. It just drain capital out of industry. Better not consume non-profitable demand like JA decided to do. To me it would have been better if US demand stayed latent until profitable. Now there's lots of panel installed already (some of market potential already consumed) without any gains to those who made those panels.

CSIQ was profitable in every year along with other Chinese companies. Their business strategy of plant building made sense to be supported by the shipment to the US.  There is not even a year since the first project was built and sold to Southern.  They have built 1.1GW of projects and today they hold 807MW, all with tax equity owners.  The value of Recurrent since 2015 has not been returned to Canadian yet, but I think in a long term, the US will play a part in the business of CSIQ.

CSIQ was about 6 months behind JKS and not sure of JASO to have the overseas capacity. None of them have dropped the US market and I think the biggest price is still to be collected from the US by CSIQ.  I can see that paying tariff at such a length was a dumb move, but the most advanced player JKS paid tariff as late as Q4, so I suppose things do not work out as one plans them. 

CSIQ is the only company with any legacy in NA. Perhaps this was Qu's priority. My comments were about the spurious description of nothing happening and accepting a tariff knowing that your product is excluded. FSLR made $40M in a tax benefit and thanks to Suniva they have orders to add to the EPS. One cannot take credit for luck as business strategy and that is what they are doing and the market is paying as they were strategists of it. 

I cannot deny the benefit FSLR receives and people who bought the stock earned gains with it. However, It is like the pressure points and value of series 6, with all its risks, have been simply averted. I do not think this is a coincidence. Suniva's petition has one company benefit, and that is not Sunvia, but FSLR. Perhaps the strategy here is more sinister than we can publically see. 

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explo    671

I mainly dislike the capital drain from tariffs, but net, if it was the only option to tap ITC, is maybe still a plus for sector equity vs sovereign equity.

I agree that TF is getting undeserved windfall from the trade war. It used to be non-China getting this and now has turned into non-c-Si which is an entirely different magnitude of beneficiaries.

Edited by explo

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dydo    1,425

I was able to determine that FSLR recorded $340M in sales of the 176.47MW solar projects in Q2. Approximately $100.7M of those were modules. Since 176.47MW is AC, the DC number represents 229.411MW. The price per AC was $1.93 and DC $1.48. The modules were sold at $0.45 per watt, meaning the cost for series 4 is $0.37 per watt (average weighted. Based on new disclosure FSLR is selling series 4 at $0.43 so I imagine the cost will be flat due to some closures. That cost is high. 

In my article about Canadian, I basically stated they will sell their projects at $1.38 per watt. Ignoring the international content of the pipeline for sale Canadian could get as much as $60M more and obviously higher margin. Time will tell. 

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dydo    1,425

I have written here more than once. Suniva is going to choke availability of modules in the US. They are used to build plants. No new plants being built, built plants gain in value.

They had said to have two rounds of bidding. Although I am a first to complain, taking time in the seller market is a good thing. 

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dydo    1,425
2 hours ago, Klothilde said:

Based on the size of the module, at 445W the generation is about an average 360W, 72 cell size module. If 395W from Hanwha is used 10% more land would be needed for every 1MW multiple, but I see savings on connections, where there are 20% fewer connection points for the same generation. The thing is about 60% heavier, 77 lbs versus 44 lbs. So BoS is cheaper, but handling cost could be higher. They insist there is a saving in the field, but they have not built a single plant with it, while the multi gigawatts of 72 cell modules are everywhere. 

Then there is a cost to make it. This is a key. 

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dydo    1,425

First Solar initiated with $72 fair value estimate at Coker Palmer Coker Palmer analyst Brad Meikle initiated First Solar with a fair value estimate of $72 with an upside case of $97 per share and downside case of $32. The International Trade Commission on Friday will release its findings on whether there was damage done to U.S. crystalline solar manufacturers by overseas competitors, the analyst points out. He believes it is "extremely likely" that the ITC finds there were damages and that this is not priced into First Solar shares.

Read more at:
https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=2611217

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dydo    1,425

JMP Securities analyst Joseph Osha maintained a Market Outperform but slightly lowered his price target on First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR) to $65.00 (from $67.00) following the Section 201 Injury Finding.

Osha said the ruling was generally as expected, with the commission finding that U.S. solar manufacturing business, crystalline solar panels specifically, have suffered serious injury as a result of competition from imported products.

The analyst notes that a hearing to address arguments for and against tariffs is scheduled for October 3.

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dydo    1,425

Roth Capital analyst Philip Shen weighed in on First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR) 201 Injury Found by the ITC.

Shen said after the initial upside move in FSLR post-vote results, they expect the stock to continue to trade sideways until we get color on what the remedy recommendation could be.

"We'll start to get some details at the remedy hearing scheduled on 10/3, and the final recommendation is expected to be released on 11/13," he said.

The firm maintained a Buy rating and price target of $60 on FSLR.

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