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First Solar (FSLR)

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5 minutes ago, odyd said:

Ravalos,

Thank you, I understand the same dynamic. Can you try to explain the surge of value in solar shares?

I feel things are insanely positive in the last couple of weeks. Is Trump effect hitting renewable energy now? Chinese one as well?

Very difficult to gauge investors sentiment in this industry. But you have to attribute the recent surge to the whole Trump optimism which is now trickling down to solar. That coupled with the fact that the solar downturn this time around is not as bloody as the 2012's (solarcos share prices were experiencing significant losses right before this recent surge though), 60% or more, so this could merely be a dead cat bounce. FSLR is still 40%+ below its high. Things seem to have stabilized for the moment, but I don't see better margins being materialized in the short term. It's a wait and see mode still but the overall market just keeps on rising under the premise of further tax cuts and significant infrastructure spending. There's some impact of that in solar. 

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Thank you that makes sense, incredible as is, Chinese are riding Trump's waves.

FSLR seem a bit shifty with their reporting. They are adding 55 to 80M restructuring cost in association with acceleration to series 6 in 2017. Taking $728M in those in one-quarter and still needing more. I am afraid they are polishing margins to positive on S4. 

 

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No those details make a bit more sense

"First Solar also said it had been forced to write down the value of its Barilla Solar project in Texas because a slide in power prices since its construction in 2014 had hurt profitability.

Shares of the company, which also reported better-than-expected profit and revenue, were up less than 1 percent at $36.62 in trading after the bell on Tuesday.

First Solar raised its 2017 net sales forecast to $2.8 billion to $2.9 billion from $2.5 billion to $2.6 billion.

The new revenue forecast allows for full recognition on the 250-megawatt Moapa project sale, located northeast of Las Vegas.

First Solar said the more than 300-megawatt Tribal Solar project, which was planned for the Fort Mojave Indian Reservation in Arizona, would not be built. The company's contract to sell the power to California utility Southern California Edison was canceled."

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10K will be an interesting read,

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Interesting this loss is bigger than the last glut time. At least last time there were plants to be built now little margins and too much competition.

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Thanks for your comments ravalos.

odyd, ravalos, my guess on the surge is general stock market exuberance. With high demand for stocks there is a valuation risk building up and the market is now likely getting into the mode of looking for stocks with less valuation risk (not too extended PB and PS for example) e.g. due discount from near-term operational risks. It seems the market just discovered something to tap in the solar sector in its hunt for more stock.

Let me just add that it is not just the expected Trump fiscal stimulus policy fueling an already up to speed US economy that is sending stocks higher. Globally, especially in Europe, there's been US inspired monetary fueling by central banks going on for a long enough time now to finally see the economies here heating up significantly. Add a solid China and we have a global economy that has just woken up from a long slumber. The chase for stocks might seem irrational now from near-term sector and company specific perspectives. Things cheap and not on the verge of bankruptcies might surge as low priced books are appreciated on assumptions that they will grow when the tide lifts all boats. Also remember that solar is dependent on positive sentiment causing households and companies to take the risk to invest surplus in rooftop panels etc., so the market likely expects the heated global economy to eventually push the supply-demand balance to a (panel) seller's market from the current buyer's market. It's a risk-on market and the solar sector benefits from it despite its near-term glut issue.

 

Edited by explo

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FSLR sell looks on, lots of Form 4's now show selling around $32. Last time Form4's were selling was at ~$44 and then ....went to $28. How low this time?

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On 3/11/2017 at 5:15 AM, heliostat said:

FSLR sell looks on, lots of Form 4's now show selling around $32. 

Where can you see that?

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Also can  use investor.firstsolar.com/sec.cfm and set up sec filing alerts etc , have this kind of alert set up for  key stocks, the nasdaq site always gives me trouble loading.

 

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