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Guest Klothilde

First Solar (FSLR)

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23 minutes ago, odyd said:

I don't doubt that they'll be able to sell their modules, it is just impossible for them to keep up their earning power going forward. With 100M shares, it will be very difficult to even make $1/share off selling modules alone with current pricing. There is a reason they aren't expanding capacity, but instead touting the tech breakthroughs they intend to make over the next two years.

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dydo    1,423
23 minutes ago, odyd said: FSLR shows it can sell modules

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/first-solar-wins-160mw-module-123000199.html

I don't doubt that they'll be able to sell their modules, it is just impossible for them to keep up their earning power going forward. With 100M shares, it will be very difficult to even make $1/share off selling modules alone with current pricing. There is a reason they aren't expanding capacity, but instead touting the tech breakthroughs they intend to make over the next two years.

Exactly, if they sell 2GW of modules, they pay 6 cents per watt in R&D. This is why one needs to be careful.

Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk

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explo    671
1 hour ago, odyd said:

A shallow story about usual China knocking off the competition has a funny twist; Canadian is put in the group of those losing value as a result. 

https://www.thestreet.com/story/13671417/1/u-s-solar-industry-has-a-problem-and-it-s-not-tax-credits-it-s-china.html

LOL, they're annualizing the cell price drop to above 90%.

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dydo    1,423

FSLR sold 140MW in Australia, ~1.7GW left to sell to meet the forecast. It is always good to remind yourself the total goals. The average ASP forecasted by FSLR is $0.34 per watt. I wonder if sell price is closer to $0.38 or $0.34. 

I suspect that FSLR will operate with zero GM for module sales this year.

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dydo    1,423

Is anyone able to comment here?

The forecast went from making $0.45 per share now to lose 0.05 per share and even losing the operating profit. Operating margin is to be negative. I am not sure I ever saw this without impairment.

Margins are down; revenue is up. Would like to learn what the detail is.

I guess $40 tomorrow.

 

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dydo    1,423

The new revenue forecast allows for full revenue recognition on the Moapa project sale, located northeast of Las Vegas, Nevada, the company said.

So I guess, the project margins are so bad they will take 1.5% of the entire year guidance?

That calls for $40 tomorrow for sure now.

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ravalos    26
3 minutes ago, odyd said:

Is anyone able to comment here?

The forecast went from making $0.45 per share now to lose 0.05 per share and even losing the operating profit. Operating margin is to be negative. I am not sure I ever saw this without impairment.

Margins are down; revenue is up. Would like to learn what the detail is.

I guess $40 tomorrow.

 

There's low probability of this breaking $40 tomorrow. The 200MA is down trending and it will require more than today's ER to break that. That's from a technical perspective. From a fundamental perspective, things have not only changed but worsened a bit. The adjustment to revenue to the upside is the result of a different accounting method required by FASB. It's true that prices have stabilized as of late, but there's ZERO a indication that now things will turn up for the better. This continues to be a demand and supply situation and I don't see supply being reduced significantly (impairments, bankruptcies, consolidations). Granted solarcos are better prepared this time around and more cautious, but price competition continues to be cutthroat. As for the series 6, although they say it's going as planned, there's still not only execution risk (albeit limited) but timing. It'll be at least 2 years for FSLR to start benefiting from series 6 panels, at least on a module-only basis. The First series 6 panels produced will go towards their own plants construction. The book to bill ratio continues to deteriorate and so, I don't see anything for this company to reverse the trend, if anything it MIGHT stabilize in the mid $30s until further notice. I also don't see FSLR going into the low $20s until something materially worse comes out in their progress, or the industry as a whole takes another downturn.

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dydo    1,423

Ravalos,

Thank you, I understand the same dynamic. Can you try to explain the surge of value in solar shares?

I feel things are insanely positive in the last couple of weeks. Is Trump effect hitting renewable energy now? Chinese one as well?

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