Guest Klothilde

First Solar (FSLR)

1,130 posts in this topic

If India does 10GW of solar installations that would limit the extent of overcapacity situation.  Could see 40 GW between US, India, and China alone if China could push  20 GW which they are easily on pace for.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Pop2mollys said:

If India does 10GW of solar installations that would limit the extent of overcapacity situation.  Could see 40 GW between US, India, and China alone if China could push  20 GW which they are easily on pace for.

We really really really do not want to see India do 10GW this year. Very fast expansions in demand allow tier 2/3 names to provide modules as tier 1 names can't ramp capacity fast enough to absorb all the demand. If India does 10GW this year but only 12GW next year that leaves a big drop off in demand growth. Nice and steady growth will allow tier 1 names to expand at healthy rates and the push out tier 2/3 names.

 

I am amazed that FSLR still isn't getting any bounce. Debating on adding more as RSI is at the bottom of its historical range. It is just hard to see any tailwinds with where oil and the indexes currently are.

EDIT: Went and added more at 52.28. Just looking for small bounce.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm not buying FSLR yet until I see a support point..even if it bounces temporarily, I don't intend to trade FSLR but to invest in it for the LT. We continue falling, below $52 now.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'm not buying FSLR yet until I see a support point..even if it bounces temporarily, I don't intend to trade FSLR but to invest in it for the LT. We continue falling, below $52 now.

Long Term? You have to be kidding me as now is not even close to the time to be looking any any names for long term positions. Even trading them is equivalent to trying to rob the titanic hoping you get off in time.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, ravalos said:

I'm not buying FSLR yet until I see a support point..even if it bounces temporarily, I don't intend to trade FSLR but to invest in it for the LT. We continue falling, below $52 now.

I have been looking for long term solar companies for a long time now and have not found one yet. I like and believe in solar future and would like to buy a long term winner (like Berkshire) and forget about it. A few times I thought one or two (like CSIQ or TSL) might be the long term buy but history proved these thoughts wrong again and again.  Like BIPV said, these solar companies are just for trading, maybe until solar becomes cheaper than other forms of electricity without FITs and these companies still make good profit margins.  For now, they are just trading vehicles.  If you find one or two that can be held for long term, I would like to know because I am a bit tired of these trading games.  Thanks.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Pop2mollys said:

If India does 10GW of solar installations that would limit the extent of overcapacity situation.  Could see 40 GW between US, India, and China alone if China could push  20 GW which they are easily on pace for.

If history tells us anything, anytime a FIT is about to be reduced there is always a rush to beat the deadline. China demand is not expected to continue at the current pace after June.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, BIPV Investor said:

Long Term? You have to be kidding me as now is not even close to the time to be looking any any names for long term positions. Even trading them is equivalent to trying to rob the titanic hoping you get off in time.

By the time that happens it might be too late. I want to be early in a good solar name, and FSLR so far would fit the bill. How long or how much of a track history do you really need to know how solar will keep evolving/improving and that a good company with superb management follows along cautiously until another boom time comes. FSLR at this price already is a good solar value. What prevents another bigger utility company from snapping up FSLR at a bargain price when looking at the long future. 

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, BIPV Investor said: Long Term? You have to be kidding me as now is not even close to the time to be looking any any names for long term positions. Even trading them is equivalent to trying to rob the titanic hoping you get off in time.

By the time that happens it might be too late. I want to be early in a good solar name, and FSLR so far would fit the bill. How long or how much of a track history do you really need to know how solar will keep evolving/improving and that a good company with superb management follows along cautiously until another boom time comes. FSLR at this price already is a good solar value. What prevents another bigger utility company from snapping up FSLR at a bargain price when looking at the long future. 

Never ever ever worry about "being early". There will always be opportunities to buy at low prices. The number one priority is not to lose money, not to worry about missing out on a historic opportunity. The likelihood of a big entity looking to scoop up a company like FSLR is close to zero as it is clear that solar is simply a game of governments around the world sponsoring their chosen champions.

Lastly we are a good year away from really knowing what the real value in solar names are as the downturn hasn't even started.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, BIPV Investor said:

Even trading them is equivalent to trying to rob the titanic hoping you get off in time.

ROTFLMAO!!!!

How apt....

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Jetmoney said:

I have been looking for long term solar companies for a long time now and have not found one yet. I like and believe in solar future and would like to buy a long term winner (like Berkshire) and forget about it. A few times I thought one or two (like CSIQ or TSL) might be the long term buy but history proved these thoughts wrong again and again.  Like BIPV said, these solar companies are just for trading, maybe until solar becomes cheaper than other forms of electricity without FITs and these companies still make good profit margins.  For now, they are just trading vehicles.  If you find one or two that can be held for long term, I would like to know because I am a bit tired of these trading games.  Thanks.

i think some of the yieldcos could qualify for this as long as you enter at right prices...might not hold for 50 years but I can imagine holding these for many years with decent return over this time period.

Trouble with mfg is that there is no moat...FSLR comes close to it...but for others its a commodity business and returns will always reverse to mean and fluctuate with the cycle...IMHO

1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now