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No.  Those should come out after their customers get the chance to buy what they want....

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5 hours ago, yomama said:

No.  Those should come out after their customers get the chance to buy what they want....

It was a nice turnaround but then it sold at the end. Not sure why it is so intensely sold. Looks to me as someone was hoping to crush it and it can bring it down enough. Yet it can't go up either.

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Do not know about JPM yesterday, but S&P today cut JKS to "strong sell" from "hold", and PT from $27 to $18. They still expect them to make $4.70+ EPS this year and next. What's the PE? Under 4? Ridiculous. Is it a buy signal? Not just yet it seems.

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Though market may not like it (or maybe they do but already ran the stock up before), JKS for the first time made more money ($42M) than TSL($40M) and CSIQ($39). Still strong guidance for Q3. Unlike 2012, this time around true CN tier-1 (JKS, TSL, CSIQ) appear to be effected by the headwind less than others. We'll have to wait and see.

While Q2 revenues were still behind TSL's (but rapidly closing) it was well ahead of CSIQ's Q2. GMs were well about the other two as well. As unbelievable as it sounds now, but in August of 2012, JKS' MC was only around $50M. 

Edited by pg6solar

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Note: JKS in Q1 earned $48M, beating them both. This is the year of JKS, too bad it falls on a year of panic about solar demand and glut. The worse part is that as in 2011/2012, I think 2010 Q4 was the best quarter. Now the focus seems to be shifting from H2 2016 to 2017 being a bad year. So in many minds, Q2 2016 is going to be the best quarter for a while.

I have no doubt about CN4's survival; it is a matter of market appraisal of it. What is the indicator that things are better and what is the indicator you looking at the bottom.

 

 

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Very short conference call. Its like analysts were not believing what JKS were saying for Q4 and 17Q1 (or it did not follow their gloom 2017 prospects).

Of course their guidance could be the reason - they have a flat guidance Q2 to Q3, While keeping original full YR guidance. Which means that Q4 will be shipping decline and its opposite of the JKS stated in the Presentation and the Q$A. So, now I'm confused on how Q4 ASP will not be less than falling Q3 ASP, while based on full year and Q3 module shipping guidance there's about 300-500MW shortfall for Q4 shipping vs. Q3. 

(http://seekingalpha.com/article/4002023-jinkosolar-holding-co-ltd-2016-q2-results-earnings-call-slides page 2)

Edited by pg6solar
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PG, can you pass on what has been said, I was unable to listen.

One observation based on the 5.7GW 3P shipments for the year and guided 1.6GW for 3P in Q3, Q4 looks like 1.1GW which is the low of the year, what did they say about that?

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1 minute ago, odyd said:

PG, can you pass on what has been said, I was unable to listen.

One observation based on the 5.7GW 3P shipments for the year and guided 1.6GW for 3P in Q3, Q4 looks like 1.1GW which is the low of the year, what did they say about that?

Exactly, that's what I posted above. And that's where inconsistency lays - they say that Q3 ASPs are dropping, but Q4 not only will not continue yo, but may even rebound (at least in CN), so the question that they did not answer to my satisfaction was how to reconcile at least flat Q3 to Q4 ASP with dropping shipments from Q3 to Q4. At the same time they said they're 60% booked for the H2, so maybe there's an unlikely upside to current 16FY shipment guidance. Have to wait for the transcript to read again. In any case they (as well as CSIQ, TSL) look solid for 2017 compared to 2011 to 2012 periods,

I have no idea where bottom is, but it can not be since market is still at all time highs. Market will correct sooner or later (even if temporary) and with addition to 2017 solar glut, all will be taken down more. Currently, I'm set up for $10 to $7 for CSIQ in identical 25% allocations, $14 to $11 for JKS (once correction takes place $6-7 delta can not stay and will be reduced to $4 or at least that;s how I'm set up) and $35 to all the way down to $25 for FSLR with even 10% allocations.

  

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And here we go with a quick S&P "response":

"S&P GLOBAL KEEPS SELL OPINION ON ADSS OF JINKOSOLAR HOLDINGS We keep our 12-month target price at $18, on peer-discount P/E to reflect our concerns about pricing/margins. We cut our '16 earnings per ADS view to $4.11 from $4.70 and '17 to $4.59 from $4.80. JKS posts Q2 earnings per ADS of $1.92 vs. $1.04, beating the $1.74 Capital IQ consensus. Sales rose 74%, near expectations, led by higher shipments into China. We see significant margin compression ahead, as pricing pressure remains intense due to recent industry capacity growth and end-market demand challenges in China/U.S. We see more downside ahead to consensus estimates/margins"

So with forward PE of 4 (yes 4), are there any wonder strong CN are starting to leave? If its keeps on going, there will be none left when true solar boom starts after 2017/2018 and with HRC in office  

Edited by pg6solar

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I know this is an old concern, but FiT payments how much of it is still outstanding? Any change on this front?

Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk

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Transcript: http://seekingalpha.com/article/4002091-jinkosolar-holdings-jks-ceo-chen-kangping-q2-2016-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single

Can anyone make sense of these exchange: 

"

Philip Shen

Okay great. One more from me here, in terms of your downstream business, you mentioned in your release that you are still working on perhaps the potentially still that business ops, can you update us on where that stands and what the next steps might be and if there is anything in the near term that we could expect there?

Cao Haiyun

Philip, this is Charlie. We continue to move the contest forwards and the target to complete the projects by the end of this year. And Chinese kind of the market is the first options and the Chinese regulators are analyzing the detail [indiscernible] for the overseas as the company coming home. And we are optimistic because China encourages the merchant operators for the low economies and renewable energy is small the key area to develop low carbon and sustainable economies. And so far, I cannot disclose the plan in detail and we will [indiscernible] posted if we made some significant milestone."

 

Is Charlie talking about listing Power in China (if so we know that's their only chance) or there's a hint of the whole Jinko doing a TSL?

 

Edited by pg6solar

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Roth on Jinko

Roth Capital affirms JinkoSolar (NYSE: JKS) at Neutral with a price target of $18 following Q2 results on Thursday.

Analyst Philip Shen offered the following overall thoughts on the numbers, noting that management sees emerging solar markets as key moving forward:

JKS delivered external shipment volumes near the midpoint of guidance, while margins were a bit lower-than-expected as tariffs on increased U.S. shipments impacted costs. Despite challenging industry conditions, management remains cautiously optimistic on margins through the back half with module margins expected to be in a range of 15-17% vs. Q1 of 18%. Electricity margins (largely cashless) are expected to be in a range of 60-65% for Q3. Management attributed the relatively healthy margin outlook to an improving cost structure (~10% lower by YE'16) and stabilizing ASPs in Q4 vs. Q3 (a view shared by SOL on its recent earnings call).

JKS indicated that H2 ASPs could be supported by increasing demand in India, Japan, and LATAM, while China demand could rebound in Q4 as developers rush to complete projects by YE. For 2017, management believes emerging solar markets could drive ~10GW of new demand, while the top three countries—China, Japan, and the U.S.—remain flat. We are less optimistic on 2017 growth as we believe the U.S. and Japan are likely to meaningfully contract, though management believes greater-than-expected demand from emerging regions such as Abu Dhabi, Dubai, South Africa, Mexico, and certain South Eastern Asian countries is possible and could provide upside to 2017 demand.

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The question now is, can Jinko actually make money off this?  If they can (and surely they're not selling BELOW cost?), that is indeed huge.  When solar becomes CHEAPER than fossils, that should unleash an entire new boom.  But they have to show they can still MAKE money off these price levels, not just break even.

Once again, I vacillate between ecstasy and despair when contemplating the future of solar....

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For any project over the past decade, the aggressive low prices bid in year X, have turned out to be relatively reasonable in year X + 2 (or +3) when they are actually built.  I'm guessing the bidders are assuming this trend continues.  Also it appears that module prices have dropped about 2-3 years worth in just the past 2-3 months.  So maybe this is breakeven today, with the assumption that margin will develop over the next 2-3 years?

In any event, I think we will see a dozen countries get to gigawatt/year scale in the next couple years if module prices hold at or below $0.40/watt (which implies sub $1/W installed utility scale).   

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In response to the above notes, according to JKS in their Q2 presentation deck, their cost to manufacture is .37 / watt.  .06 / watt of that is the raw material cost that was also dropping in a similar way to the cost of modules coming down. (about 27% YTD?)   I'm repeating numbers from Credit Suisse's "this week in solar" notes.  Schwab gives me free access.

 

I'm getting stated with solar stocks.  A little late to the game!  Hoping to cash in on my love for the planet.

Curious what you all think about JK Solars decision to sell off its power unit:

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/jinkosolar-enters-into-definitive-agreement-for-the-sale-of-jinko-power-downstream-business-in-china-300342490.html

Looks like they sold off about 1.1GW for $250 million + (I assume) the obligations to their debt of about a billion.  Not sure where those numbers came from -- but I think thats right.

So my question:   Is $1250 million for 1.1GW a good or poor price?   A move of desperation or calculation?

Too bad this deal happened too late for Q3 it seems?

Cheers-

Matt

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Matt, I don't remember exactly, but I think Jinko invested close to 200m in Jinko Power equity and now they get 250m from that equity investment (for those who want to know more precisely the potential one-time profit to be reported should dig up the exact details about how much equity Jinko put into Power). This is absolutely not what I hoped for. I was hoping they could instead redeem the partner shares and take full ownership over the 1.1 GW fleet.

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Some suggest that Trump's withdrawal from TPP has hurt Jinko's business in Malaysia. I was going to say First Solae manufacture in Malaysia would also be impacted. Is this the start of the selling?

Having a shop in Thailand Canadian could benefit again. However, their Vietnamese production would be off.

I am not even sure if this has ant tariff implications.

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Yes, a trade war with China could dramatically increase panel prices, which would set back solar development in the US by eliminating the current financial advantage solar has over coal.  That would be a real negative for all solar stocks--manufacturers, installers, leasing organizations, etc.

I can see more volatility ahead as market sentiment sees such a trade war as more or less likely based on the Tweet of the Day.

 

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14 minutes ago, odyd said:

Jinko buys notes back, why now?

it has completed the repurchase of certain 4.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2019 (the "Notes") at the option of holders of the Notes

The holders utilized an option to sell them back to Jinko. Sounds like a bearish move, but with the convertible likely virtually worthless at this PPS they probably didn't think 4.00% interest alone was sufficient reward for the risk.

Edited by explo

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Extremely good, no sign of any stress in the business. GM drop was expected, but I doubt module volume of 28 to 36% in 2017 was expected. In the last glut, Chinese companies grew shipments, and I do not expect a difference now.

Sounds like Jinko prepared itself for the shift very well.

Now the most interesting parts will be said in the cc about forecast and ASP. ASP is the only soft play here. Does this mean expanding or buying volume of the market for JKS?

 

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