Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
explo

JinkoSolar (JKS)

Recommended Posts

Surprised by the 17% thrashing today. They still earned 40 cents for the quarter and are maintaining full year guidance. Margins will improve rest of year. This trading is very short sited. I do not own any JKS stock but man, this is ridiculous.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, singular said:

Surprised by the 17% thrashing today. They still earned 40 cents for the quarter and are maintaining full year guidance. Margins will improve rest of year. This trading is very short sited. I do not own any JKS stock but man, this is ridiculous.

My view is 2 main issues that are glaring.

1: Q4 Guidance has to be HUGE and far exceeding their best quarters shipment ever and up to 30% increase over Q3 guidance

2: Serious concerns on margins with the ASP falling and their current cost structure and decision not to give any information on future cost structures.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, pg6solar said:

So first they blamed OEM for drop in GMs in Q2, now they are crediting OEM (due to falling component prices) as a defense of their Q1 comments regarding 15% GMs for H2. Time will tell.

Their wafer conversion cost must be running at 5-6 cts/w, which means they currently produce wafers for 10-11 cts/w.  Halting their wafer operations entirely and switching to external wafers, which currently only cost 7 cts/w, may provide them with humongous cost savings for a little while (as long as wafers trade so cheaply).  They may have pulled this trick to spice up Q3 margins, who knows.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So what's up with Junko hitting a 5-year low today after being upgraded by Citi yesterday?  Was it Qu lowering guidance and stopping capacity expansion?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Klothilde said:

So what's up with Junko hitting a 5-year low today after being upgraded by Citi yesterday?  Was it Qu lowering guidance and stopping capacity expansion?

 

In case you hadn't noticed, EVERYONE is down in the solar space these days.  Jinko isn't doing any better or any worse than anyone else operationally.  They tend to be more volatile than other solars (with the possible exception of DQ), so any overall moves get exaggerated for them.  And right now, there is just no money to be made in solar.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, solarpete said:

In case you hadn't noticed, EVERYONE is down in the solar space these days.  Jinko isn't doing any better or any worse than anyone else operationally.  They tend to be more volatile than other solars (with the possible exception of DQ), so any overall moves get exaggerated for them.  And right now, there is just no money to be made in solar.

I'd say everyone Chinese is brutally beaten down today, besides anyone stock is being beaten today. I'm impressed with CN solars today. If they followed general market sentiment about stocks and CN ones in particular they would all be down double digits.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On ‎8‎/‎15‎/‎2018 at 12:44 PM, explo said:

I'd say everyone Chinese is brutally beaten down today, besides anyone stock is being beaten today. I'm impressed with CN solars today. If they followed general market sentiment about stocks and CN ones in particular they would all be down double digits.

It's not just the Chinese.  RUN and ENPH are down sharply, even though they are borderline profitable, their businesses keep expanding, and all signs are positive for significant future sales, revenue, and earnings growth.  And FSLR isn't doing any better either, although there one can argue a turnaround isn't warranted until they stop losing money.

This is another one of those phases where the market acts as if all solar companies are going out of business sooner rather than later.  Not even swing trading is possible while everyone is in a sustained downtrend (I don't try shorting).  All one can do is hunker down and wait for the storm to pass...again....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, solarpete said:

It's not just the Chinese.  RUN and ENPH are down sharply, even though they are borderline profitable, their businesses keep expanding, and all signs are positive for significant future sales, revenue, and earnings growth.  And FSLR isn't doing any better either, although there one can argue a turnaround isn't warranted until they stop losing money.

This is another one of those phases where the market acts as if all solar companies are going out of business sooner rather than later.  Not even swing trading is possible while everyone is in a sustained downtrend (I don't try shorting).  All one can do is hunker down and wait for the storm to pass...again....

I've stopped tracking the TAN, but the emerging divergence pattern against the general market (which charges on) that I talked about before is becoming more and more confirmed. A sector pattern doesn't form in a day, but the force behind it is of course the China policy change earlier this year. The February general volatility spike moved the general market down with the TAN. The TAN then rebounded. Just to form a now quite confirmed double top. I'm not a chartist but I'd say a sector double top against the backdrop of a bullish general market is gloomy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, Jetmoney said:

Any news for JKS drop today?

I think it became obvious to all that 400 mill investment in Florida factory was a bad decision... I didn't see other news on them though... May be something else pops up later today...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, MVA said:

I think it became obvious to all that 400 mill investment in Florida factory was a bad decision... I didn't see other news on them though... May be something else pops up later today...

Eh, I'm thinking maybe its about the possible corruption in China and how it may affect the Top Runner program.

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/09/28/an-investigation-at-chinas-national-energy-agency-might-delay-pv-programs/

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, lepv123 said:

Will there ever be a future again for solar like how it used to be when JKS was trading in the $30s?

Yes, but who knows who's going to be around to see it.

In the not-too-distant future, solar will be cheaper than fossil fuels everywhere.  That should certainly trigger another explosion in demand.  Even modest margins should be enough to make a company solidly profitable at those volumes.

But right now, the market is pricing all solars as if they're all going out of business permanently.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, solarpete said:

Yes, but who knows who's going to be around to see it.

In the not-too-distant future, solar will be cheaper than fossil fuels everywhere.  That should certainly trigger another explosion in demand.  Even modest margins should be enough to make a company solidly profitable at those volumes.

But right now, the market is pricing all solars as if they're all going out of business permanently.

And isn't Europe getting rid of the MIP program?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, sunnypease said:

And isn't Europe getting rid of the MIP program?

At 1/10th the total global demand how much revenue do you expect his drop in price to add to current streams and at what margins and price? Any spread between normal module ASP and the MIP will be wiped out. To me 10GW of demand is going to be $2.8 Billion in revenue down from $3.3Billion. That is $500M with current 14% margins. That is $70M in gross lost. When you add in the ASP declines and margins drop, overall gross will drop from $460M down to $280M. That is a 40% drop that is not going to be offset by increased volumes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, lepv123 said:

What does it take to get there? Thanks

Grid parity everywhere and a little more progress on the storage front.  When solar becomes cheaper than fossils everywhere, all the time, and storage solves the reliability problem, market dynamics will take over, and all the dumbsh*t climate denier politicians and their brain-dead supporters can go pound sand.

Sorry to be so blunt, but I'm tired of "living with stupid"....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

LEPV123,

Having sold JKS in the $25-28/sh range, I am starting to get interested again here around $8/sh.  It might get a bounce.  But my tendency is to buy too early, so I am planning to watch it for a bit.  We could have one more bad quarter before things start to improve, so I'll be watching q results closely.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Perhaps, but worst case scenario may be more than factored in current valuation..

JKS @7.3 implies a mk. cap of 285M.. and that has become ridiculous.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, Dan said:

Perhaps, but worst case scenario may be more than factored in current valuation..

 JKS @7.3 implies a mk. cap of 285M.. and that has become ridiculous.

Agreed that it's getting really cheap.  

No chance they go belly up?   Back in the glut / disappointment 1.0 days it went below 3 a share right?  not again?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In August of 2012, JKS was at $2 with MC of only $50M. With current market correction, it went down from $12 something to $7 something in one month. If "they" are correct by saying that "correction" is only half done, who is to say that JKS won't touch $2 something again with further market plunge? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I do not agree.  JKS of 2012 is not JKS of 2018

In Q2 2012:

  • Total shipments: 302 MW
  • Total revenue: 194.9 million

In Q2 2018:

  • Total shipments: 2794 MW
  • Total revenue: 915.9 million  

A 12% gross margin today is several times more millions than the same 12% in 2012

The peers are not  the same either..  remember LDK, ESLR, STP, ENER, SunEdison, Solindra, SolarWorld, Suniva and others.. all gone..  consolidation stages clean the board and make big players bigger.

JKS is a proven survivor, it´s massive, has the lowest costs, can still make a small profit while others go under water..

..so I do not expect JKS to reach $2 or $3 this time..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • Donate

    Please donate to support this community. We appreciate all donations!

    Donate Sidebar by DevFuse
  • Upcoming Events

    No upcoming events found
  • Forum Statistics

    • Total Topics
      33
    • Total Posts
      92,395
  • Who's Online (See full list)



×
×
  • Create New...