explo

JinkoSolar (JKS)

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$0.41 per watt in Q4, from $0.49 (they said it was $0.50 in Q3). At the average $0.35 cost, that is a precisely $14.6% GM. They have about 3 cents over the in-house.

So if Q1 drops to $0.39, this becomes 10% GM on $0.35, and loss. They say 12 to 15%, not sure how if the ASP dropped and poly is up.

They are saying that  ASP is $0.37 to $0.39 for the first half. There are only 4 cents left to hit their range of cost-cutting by the end of the year.

A second half is 10 to 15% drop. That $0.39 becomes 0.33, and their cost is 0.30 that is 9.5% margin. So, they are going for volume now.

The balance sheet is an improvement on a project debt, but they like to run without money. $1.1B in AR and $1.3B in AP. Horrible.

They are expanding, scarry.

 

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In fact if you were to take a gain on the disposal the income is negative, However, it is probably in the range of about $14M for the quarter.

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7 hours ago, odyd said:

They are saying that  ASP is $0.37 to $0.39 for the first half. There are only 4 cents left to hit their range of cost-cutting by the end of the year.

They provided explicit GM guidance for Q1 and Q2 suggesting stabilization of GM after the Q4 free fall.

Sebastian Liu

Phil, this is Sebastian. I’ll just have one point. So, ASP, we just mentioned or just talked about, just so you know probably average multi high-efficiency product but remember that we have more and more shipments of the mono PERC, which definitely will help increase our overall ASP as well.

Philip Shen

Okay. That’s definitely helpful. So, as we think about margins, can you share what your expectations might be for Q1 and Q2?

Cao Haiyun

In terms of gross margin, we estimate a gross margin is relatively stable and in range of 12% to 15%. The high polysilicon price did put some pressures on the gross margin but we are taking our efforts to consolidate silicon cost.

 

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Some other interesting observations.

Gener Miao

Yes. So, on front global demand side, we believe 2017 -- compared with 2016, 2017 will definitely be another strong year. And for 2018, from what we have seen, the demand will continue to be strong, maybe the increase will not be as big as what happened in between 2016 and 2017 but still we believe the market demand we will continue going up a little bit. In that case, meanwhile actually there is another expectation from the industry that the gap between tier 1 and tier 2 will become bigger. So, it means that for the top part supplier or top player in this industry will increase their market share across this two to three years time, meanwhile the smaller guys may suffer even further.

 

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I read the cc explo as well, they said has dropped and they quoted $0.37 to $0.39 for H1.

"What we have for the first half ASP, for the first half, the number we got is pretty aligned with what we have from the market, which would be about at least 37 to 39, like high-30 range, I’d say between 37 and 39"

The poly went up and the ASP went  down, yet they say they get 15% GM, better than Q4 with poly at 7 cents and ASP at $0.41?

What is the operating profit at 12% GM at $0.39 per watt? It sounds as negative to me. I guess who cares anyways as FSLR negative net income and SPWR's no ability to create cash flow matters not. 

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41 minutes ago, odyd said:

What is the operating profit at 12% GM at $0.39 per watt? It sounds as negative to me.

Cao Haiyun

Operating expenses, we look into 2017, we still are seeing operating leverage and we estimate it in the range of 10% to 11% of total revenue.

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3 hours ago, explo said:

Cao Haiyun

Operating expenses, we look into 2017, we still are seeing operating leverage and we estimate it in the range of 10% to 11% of total revenue.

How can that be? They had operational expenses of $345M in 2016 from continuing operations. They expect to ship 8.5-9GW. From their preliminary guidance, this is in the range of $3-$3.25B in revenue. Can they really reach 10-11% which is lower than 2016 Opex while shipping 30% more shipments?

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