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JinkoSolar (JKS)

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2 hours ago, MVA said:

I think it became obvious to all that 400 mill investment in Florida factory was a bad decision... I didn't see other news on them though... May be something else pops up later today...

Eh, I'm thinking maybe its about the possible corruption in China and how it may affect the Top Runner program.

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/09/28/an-investigation-at-chinas-national-energy-agency-might-delay-pv-programs/

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2 hours ago, lepv123 said:

Will there ever be a future again for solar like how it used to be when JKS was trading in the $30s?

Yes, but who knows who's going to be around to see it.

In the not-too-distant future, solar will be cheaper than fossil fuels everywhere.  That should certainly trigger another explosion in demand.  Even modest margins should be enough to make a company solidly profitable at those volumes.

But right now, the market is pricing all solars as if they're all going out of business permanently.

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13 hours ago, solarpete said:

Yes, but who knows who's going to be around to see it.

In the not-too-distant future, solar will be cheaper than fossil fuels everywhere.  That should certainly trigger another explosion in demand.  Even modest margins should be enough to make a company solidly profitable at those volumes.

But right now, the market is pricing all solars as if they're all going out of business permanently.

And isn't Europe getting rid of the MIP program?

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3 hours ago, sunnypease said:

And isn't Europe getting rid of the MIP program?

At 1/10th the total global demand how much revenue do you expect his drop in price to add to current streams and at what margins and price? Any spread between normal module ASP and the MIP will be wiped out. To me 10GW of demand is going to be $2.8 Billion in revenue down from $3.3Billion. That is $500M with current 14% margins. That is $70M in gross lost. When you add in the ASP declines and margins drop, overall gross will drop from $460M down to $280M. That is a 40% drop that is not going to be offset by increased volumes.

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So are all solars un-investable? The future is in solar isn’t it? What needs to happen for stocks like JSK, FSLR to rise again? Thanks 

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2 hours ago, lepv123 said:

What does it take to get there? Thanks

Grid parity everywhere and a little more progress on the storage front.  When solar becomes cheaper than fossils everywhere, all the time, and storage solves the reliability problem, market dynamics will take over, and all the dumbsh*t climate denier politicians and their brain-dead supporters can go pound sand.

Sorry to be so blunt, but I'm tired of "living with stupid"....

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LEPV123,

Having sold JKS in the $25-28/sh range, I am starting to get interested again here around $8/sh.  It might get a bounce.  But my tendency is to buy too early, so I am planning to watch it for a bit.  We could have one more bad quarter before things start to improve, so I'll be watching q results closely.

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JKS reports on Nov. 26...CC is at 6:30AM! That's Monday after the Thanksgiving weekend. I guess they do not want anyone on the call. I wonder why?

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Its not the day, its the time. Who going to be on the call at 6:30AM? The point being that report might be even (much) worse that's already expected.

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Perhaps, but worst case scenario may be more than factored in current valuation..

JKS @7.3 implies a mk. cap of 285M.. and that has become ridiculous.

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30 minutes ago, Dan said:

Perhaps, but worst case scenario may be more than factored in current valuation..

 JKS @7.3 implies a mk. cap of 285M.. and that has become ridiculous.

Agreed that it's getting really cheap.  

No chance they go belly up?   Back in the glut / disappointment 1.0 days it went below 3 a share right?  not again?

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In August of 2012, JKS was at $2 with MC of only $50M. With current market correction, it went down from $12 something to $7 something in one month. If "they" are correct by saying that "correction" is only half done, who is to say that JKS won't touch $2 something again with further market plunge? 

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I do not agree.  JKS of 2012 is not JKS of 2018

In Q2 2012:

  • Total shipments: 302 MW
  • Total revenue: 194.9 million

In Q2 2018:

  • Total shipments: 2794 MW
  • Total revenue: 915.9 million  

A 12% gross margin today is several times more millions than the same 12% in 2012

The peers are not  the same either..  remember LDK, ESLR, STP, ENER, SunEdison, Solindra, SolarWorld, Suniva and others.. all gone..  consolidation stages clean the board and make big players bigger.

JKS is a proven survivor, it´s massive, has the lowest costs, can still make a small profit while others go under water..

..so I do not expect JKS to reach $2 or $3 this time..

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