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Daqo (DQ)

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REC Silicon out with Q3 numbers today.  FUBAR:
https://ml-eu.globenewswire.com/Resource/Download/e90a8646-e099-4359-94a2-9816fbe11b0e

OCI out with Q3 as well today.  Polysilicon EBITDA: -4%
https://www.oci.co.kr/eng/sub/investment/ir_view.asp?idx=664&pageNo=1

Wacker published Q3 numbers one week ago.  Polysilicon EBITDA:-15% excluding special income from insurance
https://www.wacker.com/cms/media/documents/investor-relations/q3_19/WACKER_Q3_2019_Presentation.pdf

Both OCI and Wacker have slipped below cash cost in Q3, however both are committed to fight.  Means this supply (160kT) is not going away anytime soon...

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Daqo New Energy to Announce Unaudited Third Quarter 2019 Results on November 12, 2019

Will they repeat their BS about polysilicon prices about to surge?  My guess is yes...

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Tis earnings season again you guys.  I'm getting peanuts again in Q3.  Sorry.

Rev $82.7M
GP $13.3M
OPEX & Net Int $11.4M
EBT $1.9M
Tax $0.3M
NI $1.6M
#shares 13.94M
EPS $0.11

How bout you guys, anybody seeing more than peanuts?  SCSolar, you had them break-even, right?

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4 hours ago, Klothilde said:

Tis earnings season again you guys.  I'm getting peanuts again in Q3.  Sorry.

Rev $82.7M
GP $13.3M
OPEX & Net Int $11.4M
EBT $1.9M
Tax $0.3M
NI $1.6M
#shares 13.94M
EPS $0.11

How bout you guys, anybody seeing more than peanuts?  SCSolar, you had them break-even, right?

Not certain about break even, but a $9 ASP and target costs of $7.5 puts them at $13.75M gross on mid range volume shipments. That suggests about $0.18 in EPS before 1 time adjustments.

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13 minutes ago, Klothilde said:

Their production cost came in way below guided, that screwed up my estimate.  I'm so mad.

Look on the bright side, their ability to cut costs dramatically will slow down while the ASP should fall faster than the cost savings for Q4.

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Thanks for the encouragement. 👍

One thing I got right is that they keep bulls***ting us with increasing prices:

"...we believe this will lead to continued increase in mono-grade polysilicon demand, which should lead to improvement in the price of mono-grade polysilicon for next year..."

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37 minutes ago, Klothilde said:

Thanks for the encouragement. 👍

One thing I got right is that they keep bulls***ting us with increasing prices:

"...we believe this will lead to continued increase in mono-grade polysilicon demand, which should lead to improvement in the price of mono-grade polysilicon for next year..."

$8.75 per KG on PVinsights for this week. This suggests an ASP that is not dropping for Q4 as of yet even with the slower demand in China. NExt Q could be a bang up quarter with a price spread over $2. They could be looking at $25-$30M gross this upcoming quarter before the capacity expansion hits the pricing.

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