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REC Silicon out with Q3 numbers today.  FUBAR:
https://ml-eu.globenewswire.com/Resource/Download/e90a8646-e099-4359-94a2-9816fbe11b0e

OCI out with Q3 as well today.  Polysilicon EBITDA: -4%
https://www.oci.co.kr/eng/sub/investment/ir_view.asp?idx=664&pageNo=1

Wacker published Q3 numbers one week ago.  Polysilicon EBITDA:-15% excluding special income from insurance
https://www.wacker.com/cms/media/documents/investor-relations/q3_19/WACKER_Q3_2019_Presentation.pdf

Both OCI and Wacker have slipped below cash cost in Q3, however both are committed to fight.  Means this supply (160kT) is not going away anytime soon...

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Daqo New Energy to Announce Unaudited Third Quarter 2019 Results on November 12, 2019

Will they repeat their BS about polysilicon prices about to surge?  My guess is yes...

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Tis earnings season again you guys.  I'm getting peanuts again in Q3.  Sorry.

Rev $82.7M
GP $13.3M
OPEX & Net Int $11.4M
EBT $1.9M
Tax $0.3M
NI $1.6M
#shares 13.94M
EPS $0.11

How bout you guys, anybody seeing more than peanuts?  SCSolar, you had them break-even, right?

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4 hours ago, Klothilde said:

Tis earnings season again you guys.  I'm getting peanuts again in Q3.  Sorry.

Rev $82.7M
GP $13.3M
OPEX & Net Int $11.4M
EBT $1.9M
Tax $0.3M
NI $1.6M
#shares 13.94M
EPS $0.11

How bout you guys, anybody seeing more than peanuts?  SCSolar, you had them break-even, right?

Not certain about break even, but a $9 ASP and target costs of $7.5 puts them at $13.75M gross on mid range volume shipments. That suggests about $0.18 in EPS before 1 time adjustments.

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13 minutes ago, Klothilde said:

Their production cost came in way below guided, that screwed up my estimate.  I'm so mad.

Look on the bright side, their ability to cut costs dramatically will slow down while the ASP should fall faster than the cost savings for Q4.

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Thanks for the encouragement. 👍

One thing I got right is that they keep bulls***ting us with increasing prices:

"...we believe this will lead to continued increase in mono-grade polysilicon demand, which should lead to improvement in the price of mono-grade polysilicon for next year..."

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37 minutes ago, Klothilde said:

Thanks for the encouragement. 👍

One thing I got right is that they keep bulls***ting us with increasing prices:

"...we believe this will lead to continued increase in mono-grade polysilicon demand, which should lead to improvement in the price of mono-grade polysilicon for next year..."

$8.75 per KG on PVinsights for this week. This suggests an ASP that is not dropping for Q4 as of yet even with the slower demand in China. NExt Q could be a bang up quarter with a price spread over $2. They could be looking at $25-$30M gross this upcoming quarter before the capacity expansion hits the pricing.

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China polysilicon output ramping to 35000 tons in December you guys.  That's roughly 40% more yoy.
http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20191127/1024130.shtml

Also that's a yearly runrate of 420kt and would be enough for roughly 117GW of PV.  Assuming global demand goes to 140GW next year there's only a gap of 83kt which is roughly the capacity of either OCI or Wacker.  Means one needs to exit the market or both need to curtail production by 50%.  

Exciting times ahead you guys!  I see prices hitting rock bottom over the next months and the western polysilicon makers starting to shut down their most expensive lines.  Hard to believe we've come to this point but it's simple math 101.

 

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32 minutes ago, Klothilde said:

Polysilicon crashing in China, especially the multi-grade one.  Guangfu shows a 7% drop to an avg. of 51.5RMB/kg incl. VAT:
http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20191204/1025932.shtml

Great news for DQ, The mono Poly is between $8.50-$9/KG. With their costs dropping to $6.50 that is a $2.25 price spread. When you look at their volume shipments, they are going to generate 60% more gross profit with minimal Operational and Interest increases. That is $11M more in gross profits or what ~$1 a share more in EPS. Good times coming.

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Question is what will happen with mono-grade prices.  Q4 is fine for sure but let's see how that spread behaves over the next weeks.  Fact is mono-grade has been relatively stable for months and has started sliding over the last coupla weeks.  Just sayn'.

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DQ share price closing in on FSLR to start the new year.

Great volatility for trading, if that's your investment strategy.

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2 hours ago, Klothilde said:

Downward trend of polysilicon prices to continue in 2020

Meanwhile, the upward price trend of DQ continues.

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3 hours ago, Klothilde said:

Downward trend of polysilicon prices to continue in 2020:
http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20200102/1033175.shtml

suggestions of ASP falling to 30 RMB.

"Photovoltaic News believes that in 2020, polysilicon for ingots will fall to 30 yuan a kilogram as a high probability event."

 

If that happens cost could be as $0.02 / watt for SI.

 

Shove that in your pipe and smoke it FSLR.

 

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3 hours ago, Klothilde said:

GCL poly getting $350M in financing to expand polysilicon capacity in Xinjiang.  Just sayn.
http://m.solarzoom.com/index.php/article/135139

So GCL must see sufficient market demand to justify that sort of expenditure--and so must their banking source.  These decisions aren't made without a cost/benefit analysis.  Just sayn.

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Today DQ finally blew past FSLR's stock price and held its lead into the closing.

Interesting run as of late.  No news to speak of, and volume is average.  But the sustained uptrend has been going on for a month now--AND we're closing in on 5- and 10-year highs.

Looks like the market is certainly expecting good news for the next earnings report.  It will be interesting to see if that optimism is validated.

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1 hour ago, Klothilde said:

Good Gracious, Tongwei expanding poly capacity to 290kt.  When will this end.
https://www.pv-tech.org/news/tongwei-investing-us2.86-billion-in-new-30gw-solar-cell-manufacturing-hub-i

OMG that sound MASSIVE until you look at the finer details. That is appx 50-60GW of Si supply for solar modules by the end of 2023. That sounds like a lot but it is really about 10 GW a year when you look at the total capacity being in production in 2024. That 10GW level of expansion is basically a 5% to 6% average average market share growth. If the marekt continues to grow at 15% for the next several years, that 10GW per year is what 33% of the supply growth?

 

My guess is that this expansion will fill their needs for current cell capacities and planned 30GW expansions.

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When the world is paved with solar panels?

DQ up 14% this morning.  The market obviously does not fear competition for them at this time.

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1 hour ago, SCSolar said:

OMG that sound MASSIVE until you look at the finer details. That is appx 50-60GW of Si supply for solar modules by the end of 2023. That sounds like a lot but it is really about 10 GW a year when you look at the total capacity being in production in 2024. That 10GW level of expansion is basically a 5% to 6% average average market share growth. If the marekt continues to grow at 15% for the next several years, that 10GW per year is what 33% of the supply growth?

 

My guess is that this expansion will fill their needs for current cell capacities and planned 30GW expansions.

You are totally missing the big picture here.  The thing is that Tongwei is just one of five Chinese polysilicon gorillas expanding.  All five are trying to establish themselves as numero uno and displace the other ones.  The other thing is that in a world were polysilicon consumption per watt comes down every year the absolute polysilicon demand growth is limited even despite healthy PV market growth.  Check out page 11 and page 20 on today's OCI release to get the big picture.  Cheers.
https://www.oci.co.kr/eng/sub/investment/ir_view.asp?idx=669&pageNo=1

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58 minutes ago, Klothilde said:

Good Gracious it's happening.  OCI shutting down their Korean plants and taking 50kt off the market.  

https://pulsenews.co.kr/view.php?year=2020&no=143783

As the CN ramps low cost poly, legacy plants will shut down. We have talked about that in the past. OCI is just another example as was  Sun Edison, Hemlock Wacker and REC.

 

China was importing 40% of their Silicon needs a year  or so ago. With that massive ramp you have been screaming about, they will be importing even less.

 

The market being 140GW conservative with China producing 85% of all product requires 576MT. By 2024 when the Tongwei 290KMT  is online for the first full year, China is going to need well over 770KMT. 

 

Eventually there will be more Chinese shuttering of the  legacy capacities they have in China. It will be all good for solar manufacturers as that means prices will be coming down more. 

 

That is all bad news for your dearly beloved company that would be near death if not for the protectionism put in place making us pay higher prices that the rest of the world.

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