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Daqo (DQ)

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"China will stay flat in 2018 at best" (Klothilde, 6 hours ago)

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"Get ready for the cliff" (Klothilde, May 11, 2017)

"the approaching China cliff" (Klothilde, May 31, 2017)

"we have a China demand cliff coming up in a matter of weeks" (Klothilde, Jun 1, 2017)

"I really HATE repeating myself, therefore PLEASE put your glasses on when you read. Here AGAIN":

The China Cliff is coooooming

"The China cliff is here" (Klothilde, Jun 21, 2017)

"Looks like China cliff to me"

"you can smell China cliff" (Klothilde, Jun 28, 2017)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elephant

Porcelain shop

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blindness_(novel)

"Polysilicon price another day up" (W20, Jun 9, 2017)

"Polysilicon +8% I do not understand Why this quantitatively beautiful Enterprise is loveless. DQ neither buy Polysilicon nor sell Oil. DQ sell Polysilicon. One day maybe the market will understand these simple statements or maybe not, I don't know" (W20, Aug 2, 2017)

 

 

 

 

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Sold all of my DQ (I know, I said I was gonna scale out)... 20% gain since I bought on Monday, I just didn't want to hold anything over the weekend.  Felt like I was getting greedy, so nipped that.  But given all the insights on here, I'll be trading this name along with FSLR.  I'm not terribly concerned about the fears raised, at least in the near term, but I do figure whatever Trump does will be reason to sell off - even if its no tariffs and even though I realize DQ isn't necessarily directly impacted substantially.

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And like clockwork, I sell and it takes off to a new high.  ALWAYS!  :)

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3 hours ago, MVA said:

Watch out for Hemlock... If there will be a deal, in the next 10 days, with 201 section rejection in exchange for Chinese poly market access for Hemlock and other US poly producers, then DQ may have a problem...

https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/01/12/hemlock-calls-on-trump-to-restore-access-to-the-chinese-polysilicon-market/

Do you really think Trump will forego tariffs on Chinese PV panels because one US company asks him to?  He didn't seem inclined to do so when the entire SEIA did.

Given yesterday's comments about certain foreign countries, our "stable genius" Dipsh*t-in-Chief (sorry--I meant "Diplomat-in-Chief," of course!) will be looking to make a new headline to turn the media's attention towards.  China is always a favorite target for him and his followers.

I will be VERY surprised if he doesn't impose tariffs.

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1 hour ago, Mark said:

And like clockwork, I sell and it takes off to a new high.  ALWAYS!  :)

Don't beat yourself up about it.  You have a nice profit.  Good job!  Nine times out of ten, when I got greedy and tried to squeeze just a little more out of a winning position, I wound up costing myself money in the end.  And kicking myself for it.  Set your sets on a reasonable gain.  And TAKE IT when you have it.  Then go look for another good setup.

If you're looking for more, consider a trading position in FSLR.  Nice little pullback from yesterday's jump.  And the prospect of further gains if Trump imposes tariffs, which is highly likely.

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1 minute ago, solarpete said:

If you're looking for more, consider a trading position in FSLR.  Nice little pullback from yesterday's jump.  And the prospect of further gains if Trump imposes tariffs, which is highly likely.

Yeah, I added 500 shares of FSLR today, most of that after ringing the register on DQ.  Averaged in at just a bit over $70 now.  Gonna sell the news, whatever it may be.

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Hope and Fear are the emotions that govern market behavior, the reason why most people lose money in the stock market is because Hope and Fear are misplaced.

In an uptrend, people tend to fear that the market will take away their profits, and this fear makes them sell too soon.

Conversely, in a downtrend people tend to hope that price will come back to their entry point, and they are left holding the bag.

In order to differentiate oneself from the herd, and make big profits one must reverse the Hope-Fear equation.

In an uptrend (winning position), one must HOPE that price will continue trending higher and let profits run. In a downtrend (losing position) one must FEAR that the market will continue trending lower and cut ones losses.

Unless one is able to do this, it is unlikely that one will make large profits in the market. As Livermore put it, "Men Who Can Both Be Right & Sit Tight Are Uncommon"

 

Edited by tupapa

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2 hours ago, tupapa said:

Hope and Fear are the emotions that govern market behavior, the reason why most people lose money in the stock market is because Hope and Fear are misplaced.

In an uptrend, people tend to fear that the market will take away their profits, and this fear makes them sell too soon.

Conversely, in a downtrend people tend to hope that price will come back to their entry point, and they are left holding the bag.

In order to differentiate oneself from the herd, and make big profits one must reverse the Hope-Fear equation.

In an uptrend (winning position), one must HOPE that price will continue trending higher and let profits run. In a downtrend (losing position) one must FEAR that the market will continue trending lower and cut ones losses.

Unless one is able to do this, it is unlikely that one will make large profits in the market. As Livermore put it, "Men Who Can Both Be Right & Sit Tight Are Uncommon"

 

I had that fear back in early 2016 when the market crashed. I took out half my investments and went to cash. I lost out on half the years gains as I kept fearing a pullback again. That made 2016 not a great year as there was 10-15% lost in the early part, then only 5-10% on the mid year. When I finally started putting back 75-80%, I caught the bull market at the end and recouped my losses. That fear also crept in on the initial 800 points down when Trump won but I stayed steady and had a nice return by the years end.

 

Once can also use of protective puts that one can use to offset the fear of a pullback and lock in the gains.  I was worried in the second half of last year that the market may correct and pullback. To support my investment gains, I put in some short the market positions at 10% of my holdings. While the market did not pull back, I had the comfort of knowing on those days that the market fell I was going to make some money or at least not lose as much. In the end, when it became clear the tax cuts were going to happen, I decided to get out of the protective position. I did make good money while I had the market shorts in place, just not as much as if I did not have the shorts in place. In all, the comfort of the shorts cost me 1-2% in lost gains for the year. That is O.K by me because those losses are able to offset the tax liabilities on gains.

Edited by SCSolar

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2 hours ago, tupapa said:

In an uptrend (winning position), one must HOPE that price will continue trending higher and let profits run. In a downtrend (losing position) one must FEAR that the market will continue trending lower and cut ones losses.

Unless one is able to do this, it is unlikely that one will make large profits in the market.

There is an alternative and that is diversification. By continuously rebalancing a true diversification (not just different stocks) one can always stay fully invested. This is the strategy I'm applying now and it takes away all concerns about what to do with my positions.

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I wanted to go short DQ yesterday, but my limit order did not trigger--got darn close. 

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