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Daqo (DQ)

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51 minutes ago, solarpete said:

Not out of it, but I'm resisting the temptation to buy more until the trend becomes clear.

There's still the question of how much they can reduce costs to mitigate those ASP decreases.  They've advertised in the neighborhood of 30%, but the question is, how soon can that be implemented?

If it becomes clear they can maintain quarterly earnings on the order of $1/share (instead of losing money) during this period of readjustment, they could pop to the upside sharply and quickly.  If earnings do go negative, they'll implode further.

Place your bets....

Beware of asset impairment write down risk. They’ve been aggressive on depreciation time. Sometimes it is good for future EPS to take the write down opportunity during market weakness though.

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1 hour ago, explo said:

Beware of asset impairment write down risk. They’ve been aggressive on depreciation time. Sometimes it is good for future EPS to take the write down opportunity during market weakness though.

That's true, but it's impossible to predict if that's what management will do.

I continue to hold my position for the simple fact that in the past (well, the recent past, anyway), they've been the only solar who demonstrated the capability to consistently make significant money, even in challenging markets.  In other words, they demonstrated genuine prosperity, not the "profitless prosperity" of shipping GW worth of components and barely breaking even.  Add to that their announced 30% cost reductions, and I don't think their earnings will evaporate.  Reduce, yes, but not disappear.  They know their business, and they will be able to adapt their company strategy accordingly.

Famous last words....

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15 hours ago, solarpete said:

If it becomes clear they can maintain quarterly earnings on the order of $1/share (instead of losing money) during this period of readjustment, they could pop to the upside sharply and quickly.  If earnings do go negative, they'll implode further.

Place your bets....

Let's see...  With poly currently at $11.9 (PVInsight avg.) their premium ASP should be around $12.6.  At that price level their quarterly earnings should be around $0.4/ADS.

Factor in a further downward momentum in poly prices in the short- and mid-term and you have them posting losses in no time.  Better get out before those crazy EPS estimates get adjusted... (jmho)

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2 hours ago, Klothilde said:

Let's see...  With poly currently at $11.9 (PVInsight avg.) their premium ASP should be around $12.6.  At that price level their quarterly earnings should be around $0.4/ADS.

Factor in a further downward momentum in poly prices in the short- and mid-term and you have them posting losses in no time.  Better get out before those crazy EPS estimates get adjusted... (jmho)

I will be curious on their phase 3B poly plant progress  ramping occurs and price reductions. The phase should be in production by the end of 2019 and ramping. That production ramp and cost reduction plan is what they expect to aid in an ultra low ASP environment for reasonable profitability.

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Profitability?  With Tongwei and GCL firing up 90kt of new low-cost capacity by year end?

June 2018: 20kt (GCL)
September 2018: 25kt (Tongwei)
December 2018: 20kt (GCL) + 25kt (Tongwei)

http://www.asianmetal.com/news/data/1425591/Tongwei Group's polysilicon capacity to rank top three globally

https://www.pv-tech.org/news/gcl-poly-wants-to-sell-polysilicon-subsidiary-stake-for-us2-billion

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5 hours ago, Klothilde said:

Let's see...  With poly currently at $11.9 (PVInsight avg.) their premium ASP should be around $12.6.  At that price level their quarterly earnings should be around $0.4/ADS.

Factor in a further downward momentum in poly prices in the short- and mid-term and you have them posting losses in no time.  Better get out before those crazy EPS estimates get adjusted... (jmho)

How do you arrive at your earnings figure?  Are you including the reduction in costs they're anticipating?

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2 hours ago, SCSolar said:

I will be curious on their phase 3B poly plant progress  ramping occurs and price reductions. The phase should be in production by the end of 2019 and ramping. That production ramp and cost reduction plan is what they expect to aid in an ultra low ASP environment for reasonable profitability.

Exactly.

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Can someone remind me whether non-Chinese polysilicon can be used for exported panels or not? Since most panels will be exported now that domestic installs are curbed and there is a lot of premium polysilicon capacity outside China this is important since it will affect the price of premium Chinese polysilicon a lot..

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