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Daqo (DQ)

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From CSIQ Forum:

"Curious.. why isn't CSIQ just making their own poly? 

The boost in poly pricing was caused by an interruption at a big plant?  

These margins must come down.  Just looked at DQ's margins last quarter:  EBITDA margin of 49.8%!  

There is some fat in those numbers and the module makers need some of it.  Poly guys are going to have to start sharing.   And with that recent announcement of 30GW more wafers and much more module capacity all around, seems like we seriously need to hear more about poly capacity boosts soon.  Have there been some?

Maybe this quarter will be a good one for DQ?  The stock is already bid up, but it looks like the 2nd quarter of fat margins & I've seen before that when a company pulls something off 2 times... then Wall Street jumps in thinking it's permanent."

 

"Maybe this quarter will be good one por DQ?"

1q2017_EPS (Earning Per Share): $ 2.2

2q: 1.2

3qe: 1.25 imho

4qe: 2.4

1q2018e_EPS: 3 (?!) 

"These margins must come down"

Maybe, on the contrary DQ will earn $ 20 EPS in 2020 with 33,000 tons

DQ is the lowest cost producer

(and it is very dificult to produces high quality Polysilicon)

Maybe Daqo has the best competitive Position in the whole Solar Universe (Poly-Ingot-Wafer-Cell-Moduel-Epc) The unfathomable enigma is Why is so little interest in DQ, nobody speak about Daqo

 

 

 

 

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I wouldn't take the lack of interest in Daqo to be a negative fact, on the contrary it is very encouraging given its technical possition.

Daqo has been under huge accumulation over the past two years and it recently broke above the upper limit of the accumulation range (30).

The best condition for a financial sindicate to run an accumulation campaign on a stock is low interest, since it allows them to quietly load up. Once they are satisfied with their profits  they can run a campaign to unload their possition on new buyers that are lured in to buy by the good news.


It is my view that the accumulation campaign has been completed, we are now in the run-up phase and far away from the distribution phase.

My question for you, since you appear to be well versed in foundamensls is what kind of EPS are you foreseen once the manufacturing capacity is expanded???

Cheers

 

Edited by tupapa

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Hello Tupapa

my thoughts:

2017e_EPS (20,000 tons): $ 7

2018e_EPS (21,000 tons): $ 6 - $ 8

2020e_EPS (33,000 tons): $ 6 - $ 12

DQ fair Value IMHO: $ 60 because $ 6 EPS is sustainable in the long run

and is sustainable in the long run because OCI (Korean, 60,000 tons) and Wacker Chemie (Germany, 80,000 tons) and GCL (China) and ... and ... and ...

look, page 15:

 http://hugin.info/136555/R/2101124/796563.PDF

the rectangle at the left corner is Daqo

  • Like 1

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Thanks H20

For your potential estimates of 12 EPS by 2020, are you attributing the increase to the manufacturing capacity expansion? Are you assuming Polysilicon prices will remain stable or are you foreseen increase in Poly prices also?

I was thinking, if Oil prices continue to edge higher, this should accelerate adoption of Electircal Vehicles, in turn demanding more solar power and more Polysilicon?

I have some cash left after selling out SMA Solar after the worst than expected earnings and I will be buying some more DAQO tomorrow if prices remain around current levels.

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"For your potential estimates of 12 EPS by 2020, are you attributing the increase to the manufacturing capacity expansion?"

Yes

the Nameplate Capacity or Nominal Capacity is 18,000 tons, but the effective capacity was 20,000 tons and is now 21,000 tons

https://solarindustrymag.com/daqo-new-energy-plans-ramp-polysilicon-production

so 30,000 tons maybe are 33,000 tons in 2020

"Are you assuming Polysilicon prices will remain stable or are you foreseen increase in Poly prices also?"

No

IMHO the Polysilicon Price is no sustainable above 18 or below 12

> 18 the Module maker dont buy

< 12 the Polysilicon maker dont sell

the Polysilicon Price now is ... maybe ... $ 18 - $ 17.5

http://www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-463.html

(china polysilicion price - 1.5 )

150 rmb / 6.6 (USD/CNY) / 1.17 tax [thanks Klotilde] =  $ 19,4 - 1,5 = $ 18  

http://pv.energytrend.com/pricequotes.html

(pv energytrend - 0.5)

18.7 - 0.5 = $ 18.2

http://pvinsights.com/indexUS.php

(pvinsights + 1 )

16.6 + 1 = $ 17.6

if the Polysilicon Price go down to $ 14.5 in 2018 DQ EPS = $ 6

That is the interesting question from my point of view, and

if the Polysicilon Price go down to $ 12.5 in 2020  DQ EPS = $ 7

  • Like 1

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Very, very Strong

Just Reported FQ3 17

https://www.estimize.com

DQ Reported Earnings 2.35

Estimize Consensus (15 estimates weighted) 1.44

Estimize Mean (15 estimates averaged) 1.37

Your Estimate 1.26

6 x EBITDA (169) - 1 x Debt (217) + 1 x Cash (61) = 858

/ 10,6 = $ 80

nice

http://daqo.gotoip1.com/Public/Uploads/4016461475a0abb528ba9c.pdf

 

 

 

 

Edited by H20

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Daqo New Energy, DQ

Earning Path

2017e_EPS $ 8.5

2018e_EPS $ 7 - $ 9

2019e_EPS $ 7 - $ 10

2020e_EPS $ 7 - $ 14 

  • Upvote 1

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6 hours ago, H20 said:

Daqo New Energy, DQ

Earning Path

2017e_EPS $ 8.5

2018e_EPS $ 7 - $ 9

2019e_EPS $ 7 - $ 10

2020e_EPS $ 7 - $ 14 

Nice, do you have a sell target for your shares or are you planning to hold until 2020?

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