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Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

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On 11/13/2019 at 12:40 PM, dydo said:

A pretty good evidence how investing in solar has zero logical predictability. FSLR earning cents with PE of 60s and Canadian with market cap lesser than bankrupt Sunpower. 

Speaking of SPWR, do you feel like they’re turning the corner? What do you think of the recent article by Investing Hobo on seeking alpha about SPWR heating up towards profitability? Thanks 

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On 11/15/2019 at 6:08 AM, lepv123 said:

Speaking of SPWR, do you feel like they’re turning the corner? What do you think of the recent article by Investing Hobo on seeking alpha about SPWR heating up towards profitability? Thanks 

I did not read the article so cannot comment on it. I imagine Hobo offers logical and analytical support for his outcomes. My view about Sunpower based on results of the company could not be more accurate, yet the market has kept the zombie intact to prove me wrong. My points in my articles were always logical, but logic is not necessarily mother of success in the market, certainly not in a short term. The emotion is. 

SPWR is splitting its unprofitable business, which I think allows it to be absorbed into fog of nothing in time. In a short term there is an excitement that parts of zero will produce better result than zero. I do not buy it, and I have not bought SPWR having a future for likely a half a decade. Yet the company is still here.

Canadian Solar did pretty much everything right, it is one of most profitable companies in solar universe for period of 10 years, next to FSLR. I am sure someone could do a decade analysis on this to support my off cuff statement. Optics show that under $15 CSIQ is much more attractive than FSLR. Yet the chances are FSLR will be gaining here and FSLR will linger down to $12. CSIQ transitioned every piece of plan into action, modified it but managed. Since the prophecies about Canadian plants sold and disintegration of CSIQ as inevitable soon after, they won in Japan, won in Brazil, won in Mexico. Finally, they won in the US despite another prophecy about leading to bankruptcy acquisition of Recurrent.

Still for someone who got up from a decade-long coma and looked at the company today it remains as never fulfilled opportunity.  This is the issue for solar as whole. A paradise for traders but nightmare for long term investors.

 

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8 hours ago, dydo said:

I did not read the article so cannot comment on it. I imagine Hobo offers logical and analytical support for his outcomes. My view about Sunpower based on results of the company could not be more accurate, yet the market has kept the zombie intact to prove me wrong. My points in my articles were always logical, but logic is not necessarily mother of success in the market, certainly not in a short term. The emotion is. 

SPWR is splitting its unprofitable business, which I think allows it to be absorbed into fog of nothing in time. In a short term there is an excitement that parts of zero will produce better result than zero. I do not buy it, and I have not bought SPWR having a future for likely a half a decade. Yet the company is still here.

Canadian Solar did pretty much everything right, it is one of most profitable companies in solar universe for period of 10 years, next to FSLR. I am sure someone could do a decade analysis on this to support my off cuff statement. Optics show that under $15 CSIQ is much more attractive than FSLR. Yet the chances are FSLR will be gaining here and FSLR will linger down to $12. CSIQ transitioned every piece of plan into action, modified it but managed. Since the prophecies about Canadian plants sold and disintegration of CSIQ as inevitable soon after, they won in Japan, won in Brazil, won in Mexico. Finally, they won in the US despite another prophecy about leading to bankruptcy acquisition of Recurrent.

Still for someone who got up from a decade-long coma and looked at the company today it remains as never fulfilled opportunity.  This is the issue for solar as whole. A paradise for traders but nightmare for long term investors.

 

I doubt Canadian will go to $12 level. Last time it went to 11-12 level, it was in June 2018, after May-31 china policy change. Now situation is different: ROW is more important than China, Tier 1 products preferred versus T2... Book value is $22.4 now ($18 in June 2018), Plenty of projects for sale in 2020, Cost reduction is 10-25% in 2020, etc. etc... I guess, we will check my thesis Tuesday morning, when JKS will report.... 

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On 11/17/2019 at 2:30 AM, MVA said:

I doubt Canadian will go to $12 level. Last time it went to 11-12 level, it was in June 2018, after May-31 china policy change. Now situation is different: ROW is more important than China, Tier 1 products preferred versus T2... Book value is $22.4 now ($18 in June 2018), Plenty of projects for sale in 2020, Cost reduction is 10-25% in 2020, etc. etc...

I think fundamentals for CSIQ now are significantly worse than they were in June 2018.  Module prices have come down faster than costs, that's why they are guiding lower margins for Q4 and even lower going into 2020.  

 

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2 hours ago, Klothilde said:

I think fundamentals for CSIQ now are significantly worse than they were in June 2018.  Module prices have come down faster than costs, that's why they are guiding lower margins for Q4 and even lower going into 2020.  

 

They are also guiding lower cost 10-25%, more shipments, and more projects sales. So, we will see. And, in particular, more shipments to USA, as S.East Asian capacity is overbooked for N. American direction. Watch out FSLR, your days are coming to an end!

From latest CC:

"And on the other hand, next year, something strong about Canadian Solar is we have a highly bankable capacity in Southeast Asia that we're going to ship to the U.S , it's about 3 gigawatts to the U.S. in the next few years and each year. So -- and there's a shortage on bankable capacity in Southeast Asia. So our pricing in the U.S. market is rather -- it's very healthy."

 

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4 hours ago, MVA said:

They are also guiding lower cost 10-25%, more shipments, and more projects sales. So, we will see. And, in particular, more shipments to USA, as S.East Asian capacity is overbooked for N. American direction.

I think we can understand why CSIQ margins are heading down if we look at how prices and spreads have changed since June 2018.  Here is the PVIL table for beginning of June 2018:
http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20180607/903981.shtml

Mono wafers back then were selling for $0.570/piece.
That's $0.570*60/300W = $0.114/W based on a 300W mono-PERC module
A 300W mono-PERC module back then was selling for $0.355/W

Thus if CSIQ bought a wafer for $0.114/W, processed it into a cell for $0.05 and then into a module for $0.09 the total cost of the mono-PERC module was $0.254

Selling the module for $0.355/W thus yielded a margin of 28.4%.

Fast forward to today with the following PVIL table:
http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20191114/1020696.shtml

Now mono wafers are selling for $0.391/piece.
That's $0.391*60/315W = $0.074/W based on a 315W mono-PERC module
A 315W mono-PERC module now is selling for $0.239/W

Thus if CSIQ buys a wafer for $0.074/W, processes it into a cell for $0.05 and then into a module for $0.09 the total cost of the mono-PERC module is $0.214

Selling the module for $0.239/W thus yields a margin of 10.5%.

I hope the above paints a clearer picture of how profit margins have been squeezed out of the PV value chain since June of last year.  First mono wafers fell in price (2018) followed by mono-PERC cells (Q3 2019) and now mono-PERC modules (Q4 2019).  Since the price drop of mono-PERC modules is fairly recent we will still need a few months until we see the new spot economics make their way into the quarterly figures of CSIQ.

I know you will respond by attacking FSLR but I hope nevertheless the above is clear enough to spark some kind of thinking on your side.

P.D. Here's one iconic article from September on the emergence of PERC oversupply.  Concludes that the era of high profitability for PERC cells has come to an end:
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/09/24/perc-cells-from-shortage-to-surplus/

 

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4 hours ago, Klothilde said:

I think we can understand why CSIQ margins are heading down if we look at how prices and spreads have changed since June 2018.  Here is the PVIL table for beginning of June 2018:
http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20180607/903981.shtml

Mono wafers back then were selling for $0.570/piece.
That's $0.570*60/300W = $0.114/W based on a 300W mono-PERC module
A 300W mono-PERC module back then was selling for $0.355/W

Thus if CSIQ bought a wafer for $0.114/W, processed it into a cell for $0.05 and then into a module for $0.09 the total cost of the mono-PERC module was $0.254

Selling the module for $0.355/W thus yielded a margin of 28.4%.

Fast forward to today with the following PVIL table:
http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20191114/1020696.shtml

Now mono wafers are selling for $0.391/piece.
That's $0.391*60/315W = $0.074/W based on a 315W mono-PERC module
A 315W mono-PERC module now is selling for $0.239/W

Thus if CSIQ buys a wafer for $0.074/W, processes it into a cell for $0.05 and then into a module for $0.09 the total cost of the mono-PERC module is $0.214

Selling the module for $0.239/W thus yields a margin of 10.5%.

I hope the above paints a clearer picture of how profit margins have been squeezed out of the PV value chain since June of last year.  First mono wafers fell in price (2018) followed by mono-PERC cells (Q3 2019) and now mono-PERC modules (Q4 2019).  Since the price drop of mono-PERC modules is fairly recent we will still need a few months until we see the new spot economics make their way into the quarterly figures of CSIQ.

I know you will respond by attacking FSLR but I hope nevertheless the above is clear enough to spark some kind of thinking on your side.

P.D. Here's one iconic article from September on the emergence of PERC oversupply.  Concludes that the era of high profitability for PERC cells has come to an end:
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/09/24/perc-cells-from-shortage-to-surplus/

 

Canadian solar is T1 company, therefore purchasing volumes dictate more beneficial purchasing prices and pay terms and same is about selling. Given its brand recognition and proven quality, they sell at more beneficial prices than those you show in your calcul.... Therefore your analysis is too narrow and doesn't include all factors... And yes, FSLR after 2021 is in trouble. You have to be blind not to see obvious. 

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5 hours ago, MVA said:

Canadian solar is T1 company, therefore purchasing volumes dictate more beneficial purchasing prices and pay terms and same is about selling. Given its brand recognition and proven quality, they sell at more beneficial prices than those you show in your calcul.... Therefore your analysis is too narrow and doesn't include all factors... And yes, FSLR after 2021 is in trouble. You have to be blind not to see obvious. 

Yes correct and to that point, her numbers presume zero cost reductions between Jun 2018 and today. In fact CSIQ in the con call indicated costs drop on average 15% a year and they are looking at those costs to drop 10-15% again. That is what she does so often which is to show past costs mixed with present costs to show unfavorable costs in all. She does that knowingly and willingly over and over. She wants you to think that only the module Price dropped and only the wafer cost dropped and nothing in between.

 

If you take that $0.14 and take a 15% cost reduction due to lower material costs such as lower silver consumption, lower glass and steel lower backsheeting, lower energy lower depreciation per watt, you wind up with a processing cost around  $0.119 from June 2019.  

 

That places an all in cost of $0.119 + $0.074 = $0.1925 or 19.25% gross margins.

 

If you add in another 6 months cost reductions through the rest of 2019 you have a module cost at  $.1870 or 21.7% GM

 

Coincidentally  these  numbers make sense are not off the cuff, they are guiding 19-21% margins and are blaming the lower margins on US projects.

"Gross margin is expected to be between 19% and 21%. The lower margin reflects the expected lower margin contribution from project sales in Q4. "

 

The real question I have is what are they paying in tariffs these days? I mean with ASP at $0.239 and a 20% tariff that would put the module cost imported to the U.S. at $0.289 with tariff impacts. The US ASP is far higher pushing $0.40 for high end PERC mono.

With a US ASP at the lower end range of  $0.36 for high end mono products. That puts a pre tariff ASP at ~ $0.30.

Gross profit for the U.S. would then be $0.30-$0.187 = $0.1113. 

Gross margins to the U.S. would be $0.1113/$0.36 = 31.4%

Imagine shipping 1500MW to the U.S. with $0.11 gross per watt. That is $167M.

Another 10.5GW shipped with the 21% margins and the $0.239 ASP  or $0.052/watt gross you have another $545M.

***Gross from module business alone would be $712M.

 

Goodness gracious 31% or greater gross margins for US shipments. That sounds like FSLR margins she is raving about. I would be shipping tons to the U.S. annually at that kind of margins. 

 

Even without the 5% reduction or any reduction in 2020 you have $649M gross profits before any other income.

 

What is she suggesting Opex and interest in 2020? $600M. So worst case scenario there is $50M in profit before taxes and before project sales EPC work etc. You are looking at $1B in revenues at 20% + margins for another $200M.

 

My god when are people going to realize that CSIQ may gross $850M or more?

 

In reality lets say that the ASP is around FSLR guided based on contracts of $0.34.

The ASP would be around $0.285 pre-tariff. 

$0.285-$0.1875= $0.09795

 

Gross Margins = $0.09795/.342 = 28.6% to the U.S.

 

28% Freakin US margins. Ship Ship Ship all you can into that market.

 

If you think FSLR is a protected market think again. Imagine the profits if CSIQ starts selling  not 1500 MW but 3GW or 4GW  a year to the U.S. with the tariff impact. 

 

That is what she is overlooking. Gross in the $165-$300M from the U.S. module market alone.

 

The U.S. is a cash cow for the  bankable Tier 1 Chinese players as you sublty pointed out the CSIQ comments supporting that.

 

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10 hours ago, SCSolar said:

...That is what she does so often...She does that knowingly and willingly over and over. She wants you to think that...

Good Gracious I see we still have some work ahead to find common ground.

In fact when I threw in the 5 cts for cell processing and 9 cts for module processing I was rather thinking of likely current costs.  If you want to see a cost progression I can go back to June 2018 and add a penny for a combined 15 cts processing cost, that would decrease the margin from 28.4% to 25.6%.  So what.  The point I wanted to make is that profit has been sucked out of the value chain big time since then and that is still the case even with your numbers.

I'd warn about taking Qu's 15% yearly cost drop indication at face value.  I think this is something nearer to wishful thinking.  For example as per 20-F their CN cost decreased from 33 cts in 2016 to 32 cts in 2017, that would be a 3% drop and not a 15% one.

By the way, what is your honest estimate for CSIQ's current mono-PERC processing costs?  I would be surprised if you really saw a combined 12 cts for cell&module.

Anyhows, let's see if we can at least agree on following formulation for the communiqué: "CSIQ's module prices are falling faster than their cost.  That's why the company is guiding shrinking margins in Q4 and also in 2020."

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2 hours ago, Mark said:

Hobo doing some more pumping...

Project Sales Delays Once Again Offer A Buying Opportunity For Canadian Solar

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4308066-project-sales-delays-offer-buying-opportunity-canadian-solar?app=1&isDirectRoadblock=false

 

 

Great minds think alike. Hobo is saying $4 EPS easily?

" unless the solar industry collapses, that should push EPS above $4.00 easily."

 

Where did I hear suggestions of $4 or more?

Oh right on the 14th where I indicated 

" In fact there is upside to $265M. At 60M shares that is what $4+ on the upside. Am I investing on $4EPS, no, but certain $2 plus is what I am investing on."

Or on Monday where I suggested 

"My god when are people going to realize that CSIQ may gross $850M or more?"

 

The numbers are there and more than 1 person sees the potential. People just need to recognize them.

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1 hour ago, SCSolar said:

 

 

Great minds think alike. Hobo is saying $4 EPS easily?

" unless the solar industry collapses, that should push EPS above $4.00 easily."

 

Where did I hear suggestions of $4 or more?

Oh right on the 14th where I indicated 

" In fact there is upside to $265M. At 60M shares that is what $4+ on the upside. Am I investing on $4EPS, no, but certain $2 plus is what I am investing on."

Or on Monday where I suggested 

"My god when are people going to realize that CSIQ may gross $850M or more?"

 

The numbers are there and more than 1 person sees the potential. People just need to recognize them.

Good question: "My god when are people going to realize that CSIQ may gross $850M or more?"

In the meantime JKS is pushing $17.5 UP, and CSIQ, with 2020 $4 EPS on the surface, is stuck at $15....

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Good question.  I'm not normally a fan of conspiracy theories, but with solar, I sometimes wonder.  Take ENPH, for example.  More good news reported this morning (they're starting to take pre-orders for their storage solution, meaning they finally have that tech ready to go--and that's a completely new product for them, opening up an entirely new profit source), so after initially rising, of course the stock tanks by 5% by end of day.  It sure seems like solar stocks just don't react to good news the way stocks in other industries do.

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19 minutes ago, solarpete said:

Good question.  I'm not normally a fan of conspiracy theories, but with solar, I sometimes wonder.  Take ENPH, for example.  More good news reported this morning (they're starting to take pre-orders for their storage solution, meaning they finally have that tech ready to go--and that's a completely new product for them, opening up an entirely new profit source), so after initially rising, of course the stock tanks by 5% by end of day.  It sure seems like solar stocks just don't react to good news the way stocks in other industries do.

ENPH is connected with SPWR... And SPWR dropped today by 12%... Look for answers there....

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23 minutes ago, MVA said:

ENPH is connected with SPWR... And SPWR dropped today by 12%... Look for answers there....

SPWR announced a 22Million share offering at their bloated stock price. That is a 15% dilution. 

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My personal derivation of CSIQ's Q3 ASP:

We know revenue of "solar modules and other solar power products" equals $539.0M.  And we know "solar module shipments recognized in revenue in the third quarter of 2019 totaled 2,156 MW".

However revenue and shipments are not equal in scope as some module shipments are recognized as revenue in other sales segments of MSS & Energy.  Thus we need to adjust either revenues or shipments to align the scopes, I choose revenues.

I assume in Q3 they had no module shipments recognized as revenue within the Energy segment since all project sales appear to be pre NTP.

My first revenue adjustment would be to add half the systems kits revenue to the module revenue above, assuming half of the value in the kits is represented by the modules.

My second adjustment would be to add 80% of the EPC services revenue under MSS to the module revenue above.

Rationale:  CSIQ is involved in 3 large EPC projects this year in Australia (Kiamal 256MW, Finley 175MW, Darlington Point 333MW).  Modules shipped to these projects get recognized as revenue under EPC services.  Looking at the construction schedules of these projects (links below) and assuming module rev recognition happens on delivery to construction site then it looks to me Kiamal module revenue falls into Q1+Q2, Finley into Q2+Q3, and Darlington into Q3+Q4+Q1.

EPC services revenue in Q1-Q3 was $193.5M (39.7+84.4+69.4).  According to the schedules outlined above that would include the full module volume of Kiamal (256MW), Finley (175MW), and maybe 50-100MW of Darlington, i.e. a total of around 480-530MW.  Based on a module ASP of around $0.30 (consistent with the time the EPC contracts were signed, i.e. Oct18-Jan19) it appears roughly 75-82% of the revenue recorded under EPC services is actually for module delivery.

This link with information on the Darlington project suggests that CSIQ's involvement in these EPC projects goes little beyond module delivery so imo makes sense that most of the revenue comes from module delivery:
https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/projects/darlington-point-solar-farm-new-south-wales/

In conclusion I see their Q3 module ASP around ($539.0M + $14.1M (Half of kits) + $55.5M (80% of EPC rev) ) / 2156MW = 28 cts/W

links galore:
http://investors.canadiansolar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/canadian-solar-partners-biosar-build-256-mwp-solar-project-total

https://www.eren-groupe.lu/en/presse/article-details/2019/06/total-eren-secures-financing-for-its-256-5-mwp-kiamal-solar-farm-in-victoria-australia

https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/projects/kiamal-solar-farm/

http://investors.canadiansolar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/canadian-solar-provide-epc-services-and-supply-solar-modules-175

http://finleysolarfarm.com.au/

https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2019/08/14/175-mw-finley-solar-farm-reaches-construction-milestone/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VpxXt0v5358

http://investors.canadiansolar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/canadian-solar-provide-epc-services-and-supply-solar-modules

http://enviroproperty.com.au/construction-commences-on-darlington-point-solar-farm-in-the-riverina-nsw/

https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/projects/darlington-point-solar-farm-new-south-wales/

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Klothilde said:

My personal derivation of CSIQ's Q3 ASP:

We know revenue of "solar modules and other solar power products" equals $539.0M.  And we know "solar module shipments recognized in revenue in the third quarter of 2019 totaled 2,156 MW".

However revenue and shipments are not equal in scope as some module shipments are recognized as revenue in other sales segments of MSS & Energy.  Thus we need to adjust either revenues or shipments to align the scopes, I choose revenues.

I assume in Q3 they had no module shipments recognized as revenue within the Energy segment since all project sales appear to be pre NTP.

My first revenue adjustment would be to add half the systems kits revenue to the module revenue above, assuming half of the value in the kits is represented by the modules.

My second adjustment would be to add 80% of the EPC services revenue under MSS to the module revenue above.

Rationale:  CSIQ is involved in 3 large EPC projects this year in Australia (Kiamal 256MW, Finley 175MW, Darlington Point 333MW).  Modules shipped to these projects get recognized as revenue under EPC services.  Looking at the construction schedules of these projects (links below) and assuming module rev recognition happens on delivery to construction site then it looks to me Kiamal module revenue falls into Q1+Q2, Finley into Q2+Q3, and Darlington into Q3+Q4+Q1.

EPC services revenue in Q1-Q3 was $193.5M (39.7+84.4+69.4).  According to the schedules outlined above that would include the full module volume of Kiamal (256MW), Finley (175MW), and maybe 50-100MW of Darlington, i.e. a total of around 480-530MW.  Based on a module ASP of around $0.30 (consistent with the time the EPC contracts were signed, i.e. Oct18-Jan19) it appears roughly 75-82% of the revenue recorded under EPC services is actually for module delivery.

This link with information on the Darlington project suggests that CSIQ's involvement in these EPC projects goes little beyond module delivery so imo makes sense that most of the revenue comes from module delivery:
https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/projects/darlington-point-solar-farm-new-south-wales/

In conclusion I see their Q3 module ASP around ($539.0M + $14.1M (Half of kits) + $55.5M (80% of EPC rev) ) / 2156MW = 28 cts/W

links galore:
http://investors.canadiansolar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/canadian-solar-partners-biosar-build-256-mwp-solar-project-total

https://www.eren-groupe.lu/en/presse/article-details/2019/06/total-eren-secures-financing-for-its-256-5-mwp-kiamal-solar-farm-in-victoria-australia

https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/projects/kiamal-solar-farm/

http://investors.canadiansolar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/canadian-solar-provide-epc-services-and-supply-solar-modules-175

http://finleysolarfarm.com.au/

https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2019/08/14/175-mw-finley-solar-farm-reaches-construction-milestone/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VpxXt0v5358

http://investors.canadiansolar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/canadian-solar-provide-epc-services-and-supply-solar-modules

http://enviroproperty.com.au/construction-commences-on-darlington-point-solar-farm-in-the-riverina-nsw/

https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/projects/darlington-point-solar-farm-new-south-wales/

 

 

 

This sounds good but it does not map in for Q2.   If you presume similar ratios you get a $0.256 ASP for Q2. That makes Q3 as an uptick in ASP and not a decline. 

 

This formula seems to be more reasonable if the module shipped for revenues is less than those recognized in revenues. Then you know absolutely that some in the earnings were from EPC services.

 

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I'm out with the girls and cannot look into it. Maybe in Q2 some modules were recognized as revenue in the energy systems sold. Cheers

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Ok, in this table I'm doing a reconciliation the other way around, i.e. I take the sum of module shipments recognized in revenue and deduct the shipments that are embedded as revenue in sales segments other than plain modules.

For system kits I'm assuming an ASP of $0.65, i.e. slightly down from the 2018 ASP of $0.774 from the 20-F

For modules recognized in EPC services I assume total shipments of 530MW in Q1-Q3 (full Kiamal, Finley, and 100MW of Darlington), split proportionally among quarters based on reported revenue

For modules recognized in Energy power plants I take Q1 and Q3 as 0 because they had no reported post COD sales in those quarters.  For Q2 they reported 228MW of post COD sales.

Results are fairly consistent with Qu's indication during the Q1 con call that their Q1 ASP was near 30 cents.

251233156_ASPcalc.thumb.jpg.6c4e7dda5dc1405b804513c9eba0af71.jpg

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27 minutes ago, Klothilde said:

 

27 minutes ago, Klothilde said:

Ok, in this table I'm doing a reconciliation the other way around, i.e. I take the sum of module shipments recognized in revenue and deduct the shipments that are embedded as revenue in sales segments other than plain modules.

For system kits I'm assuming an ASP of $0.65, i.e. slightly down from the 2018 ASP of $0.774 from the 20-F

For modules recognized in EPC services I assume total shipments of 530MW in Q1-Q3 (full Kiamal, Finley, and 100MW of Darlington), split proportionally among quarters based on reported revenue

For modules recognized in Energy power plants I take Q1 and Q3 as 0 because they had no reported post COD sales in those quarters.  For Q2 they reported 228MW of post COD sales.

Results are fairly consistent with Qu's indication during the Q1 con call that their Q1 ASP was near 30 cents. 

251233156_ASPcalc.thumb.jpg.6c4e7dda5dc1405b804513c9eba0af71.jpg

 

So in reality the ASP is derived off the MSS number based on a estimation of how many MW were recognized in other revenue streams(best guess). The ASP you are quoting does not take into account the higher ASP from contracted prices from earlier sales shipments for EPC or owned projects that are booked as sales in later quarters. So the near 450MW or 15-20% of their shipments were ASP that if you follow your Q3 numbers was $0.30 or possibly a penny higher.

 

Thanks, in essence a crap shot and guessing game with little clarity.

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Sold the last of my CSIQ this morning.  Pretty much recovered all my earnings losses trading it the last few weeks.  I'll keep trading it, but given the experts differing viewpoints here of their financial well-being moving forward, it sure won't be the mountain of shares I'd normally trade.  

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On 11/22/2019 at 4:09 PM, MVA said:

CSIQ = Looks like a bottom to me...

Looks like a nice call. I would expect ta slow climb back to pre crash $20+/- range .

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21 minutes ago, SCSolar said:

Looks like a nice call. I would expect ta slow climb back to re crash $20+/- range .

Agreed

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1 hour ago, MVA said:

Agreed

I took a sizeable position for me in JKS a few days back(>10% of holdings). If CSIQ pulls back, I will pick up a good chunk again.

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CANADIAN SOLAR COMPLETES THE SALE OF THE LAST SUBSIDIZED OPERATIONAL PROJECT OF 3.3 MWP IN THE UK
http://investors.canadiansolar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/canadian-solar-completes-sale-last-subsidized-operational

Yes, terrific news, but how about the 350MW of operating plants in China?  Will those be sold at a loss similar to the one incurred by Shunfeng with their plants?  And when will we get smacked exactly?  2020 or 2021?
https://www.pv-tech.org/news/sfce-sells-pv-power-plants-at-loss-to-reduce-debt-levels

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