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Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

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6 hours ago, Mark said:

I miss those articles too... how about a CSIQ article for old time's sake, Robert?  I would be curious to hear your detailed thoughts in light of the new China news (rumored news) and everything that's transpired over the last 6-12 months.  You're looking for potential trip to the 40s in years to come, Klothilde swears we're going to the 4s (or bankrupt) in years to come and I certainly respect both your opinions, but you couldn't be farther apart.

Thank you MVA and Mark for your kindness. It is a while since I had an article published, and even though I enjoyed the exercise I am out of touch with the industry for an equal amount of time. I reduced myself to a lurker at this point and have no plans to come back to those dear subjects of ours. Interestingly solar is quite strong, especially CSIQ. I think as usual the forecasts and predictions are somewhere in the middle. I think CSIQ is going to do well and I expect them to beat forecast offered thus far offered here. 

Good luck to you all

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11 hours ago, dydo said:

Thank you MVA and Mark for your kindness. It is a while since I had an article published, and even though I enjoyed the exercise I am out of touch with the industry for an equal amount of time. I reduced myself to a lurker at this point and have no plans to come back to those dear subjects of ours. Interestingly solar is quite strong, especially CSIQ. I think as usual the forecasts and predictions are somewhere in the middle. I think CSIQ is going to do well and I expect them to beat forecast offered thus far offered here. 

Good luck to you all

2019 seems to be lining up for a bullish year for installations. This is with estimates pushing 120GW+ with the wild card being China demand. That growth rate is 20% increase of 2018 100+/- GW depending on research group. I have read anywhere between 98GW to 109GW for 2018 installations.

For 2019, IHS has new installations at 123GW, BNEF  has a low demand of 125GW and as high as 141GW as they have revised upwards due to ASP declines. Those rosey DQ numbers that were mentioned by some as being out of reality, looks to be backed by others forecasts. And remember, these are new installations. The module shipments for the year will be above the new installations as you will have shipments in November and December that are for early 2020 installs.

 

https://www.pv-tech.org/news/bnef-offers-wide-range-forecast-for-global-solar-demand-in-2019

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24 minutes ago, dydo said:

I wonder if there is an announcement pending?

Hopefully not for a buyout at 18.60!  Chuckle....

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It's unlikely any one company specific. They're all up. JKS ( a lot), DQ, even FSLR. If anything, maybe they will remove tariffs as part of the CN "deal"? Then FSLR should be down, but it's not. Sold out of all solars yesterday (too early). Unless we'll see close to recent lows, I'll be solarless going forward. (Still have large PEGI/CWEN exposure).

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1 hour ago, pg6solar said:

CSIQ is over $20...and on a huge market down day. Wow!

Someone's trying to give us a proper valuation.  

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Good Gracious, up 9% with that update.  It will be extremely interesting to see how they pulled off that GM, specially since I expect their module margins to go down significantly.  One key advantage of CSIQ is that they have plenty of project rights etc. that they can offload at wish to pimp up EPS.

What's the general feeling here, are you guys holding this through ER or are you guys afraid this is going downhill from here?

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Unloaded all of mine, except for a big bunch o' shares in my wife's 401k.  I'm going to trade the heck out of it this year.  But not gonna hold it for extended periods.  Now if I can just get out of this FSLR garbage bag I'm holding, I'd be a happy guy.  

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4 hours ago, Klothilde said:

Good Gracious, up 9% with that update.  It will be extremely interesting to see how they pulled off that GM, specially since I expect their module margins to go down significantly.  One key advantage of CSIQ is that they have plenty of project rights etc. that they can offload at wish to pimp up EPS.

What's the general feeling here, are you guys holding this through ER or are you guys afraid this is going downhill from here?

If you looked at their 2 business units being MSS and at 23.4% GM  and the Energy Business unit being 28.2% In Q3.  In fact Q3 was lower in margins than the energy business has had 54.7% and 31.6% margins in the Q1/2 quarters.

The guidance is only 1.5% higher in margins. This revised guidance adds around $50M gross from prior high end guidance. This could be picked up with Japan project sales and far lower input costs for building modules or other items like more CVD reversals or more NTP revenue recognitions. 

 

The revised revenue picks up around $100M in added revenues of which around $65M of that is modules. That means they had $25M of other revenues.

 

To me it looks like the revised guidance adds around $65M module revenues on 225MW and around $15M in MSS gross from that.

>>>>This would leaves $35M gross from projects on what is around $25M in other revenues. That would suggest another CVD reversal might be included similar to Q3.

 

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, Mark said:

Unloaded all of mine, except for a big bunch o' shares in my wife's 401k.  I'm going to trade the heck out of it this year.  But not gonna hold it for extended periods.  Now if I can just get out of this FSLR garbage bag I'm holding, I'd be a happy guy.  

Nice, glad you were able to climb back. I took my losses earlier then bought in lower and sold in the $14's. I felt good getting that money back however I did miss out on the $7 rise since then.

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Hello everyone, I'm back to investing in solar stocks after a year out of the game. I will buy CSIQ if it moves back above 22 targeting 40's. I remember reading Robert's article last year and it was very clear to me that this is a winning company, unfortunately I got badly burnt with the private offer fiasco.

Technicaly, CSIQ's chart looks remarkable, strong accumulation for 3 years between the 10-20 usd range, breakout above 20 and now we are in the retracement. This is not a stock to day trade, if  accumulation has been completed, the minimum return one should expect is 50-100%. I am also investing in other solar stocks such as SCATEC Solar and Meyer Burger. In the broader renewable energy space Siemens Gamesa and Orsted A/S also look very promissing.

The energy revolution is on its way folks, the world economy need to be decarbonized urgently and if we place our bets on the right horses we will enjoy generous profits. I know to many of us who have been following the solar sector for a long time, long term holding is hard to conceive but once the tide shifts and the world trully embraces renewable energy, I am confident that real earnings and valuation growth will come along. Who knows, they might jsut be around the corner.

 

 

Edited by tupapa

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10 hours ago, tupapa said:

Hello everyone, I'm back to investing in solar stocks after a year out of the game. I will buy CSIQ if it moves back above 22 targeting 40's.

 

 

So you're saying that we're at the top right now.

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12 hours ago, Mark said:

So you're saying that we're at the top right now.

I can see the past year has turned you into a more bitter fellow, which is unsurprising given the poor performance of most solar stocks but this needen't be the case in the coming years.

I'm very grateful to this forum, specially Robert and H20 since I learnt a lot from both of these members and had large profits with Daqo in 2018. I just wanted to share my view that I believe it is probable that the solar sector is making another turn to the upside and long term bets could produce ample profits in the future.

Solar still only ptovides 0.6% of the world's energy consumption, the growth potential is huge and CSIQ is in a great possition to capitalize it.

 

 

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I think it is easy to get carried away with two excellent quarters.  But how about addressing some of the concerns relating to CSIQ?  Who wants to give it a shot?

1) Dropping ASP and gross margin of new projects - gross profit per W of project keeps dropping, making it increasingly difficult to cover a very high OPEX & interest level.

2) Depletion of lucrative Japanese pipeline needed to cross-subsidize lower margin projects elsewhere

3) Heavy focus on multi which is becoming increasingly uncompetitive vs. mono

4) Nearly 500MW of operating CN projects on balance sheet that drive interest expense up and may have to be written down eventually.

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8 hours ago, tupapa said:

I can see the past year has turned you into a more bitter fellow, which is unsurprising given the poor performance of most solar stocks but this needen't be the case in the coming years.

 

 

Nah, not bitter at all.  In fact I've been rather excited and bullish since Christmas, having dug out of my CSIQ hole and made a handsome profit at the same time.  It's just the last time we heard from you, DQ was going to $100 or something and it promptly went to $20.  So you're a bit of a contrarian indicator.

Longer term, I agree though and ain't going anywhere... party is just starting.  

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On 2/8/2019 at 7:11 PM, Mark said:

Nah, not bitter at all.  In fact I've been rather excited and bullish since Christmas, having dug out of my CSIQ hole and made a handsome profit at the same time.  It's just the last time we heard from you, DQ was going to $100 or something and it promptly went to $20.  So you're a bit of a contrarian indicator.

Longer term, I agree though and ain't going anywhere... party is just starting.  

Regarding Daqo I wrote on this forum that I would be closing my possition after the stock collapsed on extraordinary earnings, showing something fishy was going on behind the scenes.

Glad to hear that about your profits and I hope you can unload that POS firstsolar at a good price. It will likely fall into the gutter once the trade sanctions are lifted and it is no longer competitive with its chinese peers.

 

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This after the price is already at 20.50 and the company just released positive news on volumes and margins.  Yes, nothing like "breaking news" (the headline on the web page) stating the obvious.

I keep wondering, who PAYS these guys to do "analysis" like this?

Of course, as a former meteorologist (and worse, "space weather" forecaster), I know all about being a paid liar.  But the accuracy of my forecasts aside (grin), at least I put them out BEFORE the events in question had already happened....

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On 2/14/2019 at 3:47 PM, Klothilde said:

I wonder what Q1 guidance will look like.  So far they haven't announced any project sales for Q1.  Just sayin.

Canadian Solar Won 94 MWp of Subsidy-Free Electricity Contracts in Alberta's Public Power Auction

http://investors.canadiansolar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/canadian-solar-won-94-mwp-subsidy-free-electricity-contracts

 

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R&D engineers at Canadian Solar have developed proprietary LeTID mitigation technologies through many years of research in materials, processes and production equipment. This has made Canadian Solar one of a few solar cell and module manufacturers who have mastered the technology to mitigate and control LeTID in high volume production.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-should-you-pay-attention-letid-dr-shawn-qu/

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On 2/11/2019 at 6:35 PM, Klothilde said:

Am I the only one seeing CSIQ in the red this year? What an honor! 🤗

You are clueless.

 

Went long csiq yesterday, minimum 6 month target 40s

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10 hours ago, tupapa said:

Went long csiq yesterday, minimum 6 month target 40s

Your word in God's ear!  That would pretty much restore my portfolio to previous highs....

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