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dydo

Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

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3 hours ago, SCSolar said:

Except that Chinese solars haven't traded at valuations equivalent to their US peers in what?  Over a decade?  Why should that change now?

Don't get me wrong--I still have shares from the mid-30s, so I'd love to see these stock prices.  But it will have to be from earnings, not an increase in P/E.  And that's still 2+ years away.

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"Thanks for the upgrade Brian, that was very nice of you.  Keep up the good work."

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Nice to see CSIQ hitting 52-week highs, getting business globally, becoming independent off commodity material swings. I read commentary how they going to fall on their face with their multi products. Not likely if they build solar parks with them as a major user. CSIQ adaptability to business cycles seems superior to any other listed company. And surprisingly the market is recognizing it. Days of $40 per share may not be gone but if anything CSIQ has a chance to reach that in a couple years.

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22 minutes ago, dydo said:

Nice to see CSIQ hitting 52-week highs, getting business globally, becoming independent off commodity material swings. I read commentary how they going to fall on their face with their multi products. Not likely if they build solar parks with them as a major user. CSIQ adaptability to business cycles seems superior to any other listed company. And surprisingly the market is recognizing it. Days of $40 per share may not be gone but if anything CSIQ has a chance to reach that in a couple years.

I don't think CSIQ will fall on its face. I do however believe the market for now for Poly is not going to grow as fast as Mono. The market should maintain at 40-50GW for the next few years. This would clearly create a market for their current Multi Perc technology.  The problem is that even GCL is moving away from Multi. They are ramping mono wafer and trying to squeeze a few more years out of their legacy multi furnace capacity by going to mono casting. What is driving CSIQ is the belief their project business. Most of that was built in the past and after this year, the highly profitable Japan projects will be mostly all built and much of it disposed of. When that happens, the margins and profits will be likely be tighter that the several dollars they will make this year. I do not see them sustaining a price much over $20 for any period of time.

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12 hours ago, SCSolar said:

I don't think CSIQ will fall on its face. I do however believe the market for now for Poly is not going to grow as fast as Mono. The market should maintain at 40-50GW for the next few years. This would clearly create a market for their current Multi Perc technology.  The problem is that even GCL is moving away from Multi. They are ramping mono wafer and trying to squeeze a few more years out of their legacy multi furnace capacity by going to mono casting. What is driving CSIQ is the belief their project business. Most of that was built in the past and after this year, the highly profitable Japan projects will be mostly all built and much of it disposed of. When that happens, the margins and profits will be likely be tighter that the several dollars they will make this year. I do not see them sustaining a price much over $20 for any period of time.

The story of Canadian pipeline shrinking was heard loud and clear on this forum since Canadian plants were completed. The company is not only one pure developer still standing, but it is producing more and more business encompassing other arms of managing solar plants. It maintains healthy "sell and/or keep" strategy. There are many markets to go with solar plants. And those markets will expand.  We have not seen any victims of the slowdowns with exception of few subs going bankrupt in China.  There is plenty of space available.

The manufacturing and the decisions made had worked thus far for the company. I am not sure why transformation, when required, would not be as well executed as it has been to date. Not sure why a successful organization would suddenly lose its footing. They are the most capable of a shift. FSLR has zero ability to shift, SPWR is dead, JKS is almost dead and will never be buried if it died, like Yingli, but CSIQ is somehow paralyzed and cannot make a move? I read those scenarios too many times. I argued against them as many, and I am surprised to see them again. Even Snake seems to be seeing Chinese taking FSLR to cleaners now. I do not have a skin in this game, but I think Canadian could surprise few folks here with its share price going forward. Cheers, I am back under the rock. 

 

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My favorite subject, yummy! 😋

Does anyone of you guys have a 2019 EPS estimate?  Consensus right now is $2.38 but I don't know you guys.  Module prices are just soo low and their OPEX is soo high...  

 

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34 minutes ago, Klothilde said:

My favorite subject, yummy! 😋

Does anyone of you guys have a 2019 EPS estimate?  Consensus right now is $2.38 but I don't know you guys.  Module prices are just soo low and their OPEX is soo high...  

 

Low end I see is $1.25 high end range is $2.25.  Shipments for revenues in the 8GW range.

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Could you help me with basic metrics like ASP CPW GP?  Greatly appreciated.  You seem to be implying a GP o f $550 - $700M.  Right?

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32 minutes ago, Klothilde said:

Could you help me with basic metrics like ASP CPW GP?  Greatly appreciated.  You seem to be implying a GP o f $550 - $700M.  Right?

GP $620-$700M.

Opex $430M+/-

Interest $100M+/-

ASP $0.27 CPW $0.235(13%GM) on 8GW shipments for revenues

The wild card are project sales revenue , power revenues and EPC revenues.

Project 130MW Japan @ 3.30 @ 30%GM

700MW @ 1.2/W @ 12.5%GM 

Power Revenues/Dividend Incomes $40M @ 50%GM

EPC $150M @ 15%GM

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18 minutes ago, SCSolar said:

GP $620-$700M.

Opex $430M+/-

Interest $100M+/-

ASP $0.27 CPW $0.235(13%GM) on 8GW shipments for revenues =$280M

The wild card are project sales revenue , power revenues and EPC revenues.

Project 130MW Japan @ 3.30 @ 30%GM =$129M

700MW @ 1.2/W @ 12.5%GM  =$105M

 Power Revenues/Dividend Incomes $40M @ 50%GM =$20M

EPC $150M @ 15%GM =$23M

I'm getting only $557M with the above. 🤔

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Here's my first take at 2019 EPS:

Modules: 7GW * $0.25/W * 8% = $140M

Japan projects: 140MW * $3.4/W * 30% = $143M

non-Japan projects incl. EPC: 900MW * $0.9/W * 10% = $81M

electricity: $20M * 50% = $10M

system kits: $70M * 20% = $14M

other: $150M * 25% = $38M

Total gross = $426M.  OPEX & NI = $530M.  Makes approx -$100M in losses or -$1.6 EPS

 

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You guys are extremely lucky that the stock is where it is.  This is a golden opportunity to exit at a good price before we head south.

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He wanted to cash out by taking private and relisting in China. That opportunity is gone because valuations in China have cratered after 5/31. The world is different now and 18 USD is a good price now. Jmvho.

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24 minutes ago, Klothilde said:

That opportunity is gone because valuations in China have cratered after 5/31.

Have they?  I haven't tried looking up prices on the Chinese market.  But it would be good to know the incentive to stiff US shareholders is gone.  I still hope both TSL and JASO go belly-up over there.  Not that I'm vengeful (chuckle)....

If you've been keeping up with the solar sector press, you know the impact of 5/31 isn't nearly as bad as was initially feared.  I respect your opinion, but it is just that--your opinion, and one that is not shared by people paid to analyze this sector in detail.  (Not that their prognostications are necessarily much better.)

And yes, 18 is a good price now.  But 2019 is forecast to be BETTER than 2018.  So prices should get even better in 2019.

All also just in MY opinion, of course.

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Quick follow-up, as I just saw Explo's post in Solar News about the JASO relisting.  Looks like they sold out for 360M here, then sold themselves to a new buyer in China for 1.1B.  So they're being valued over there more than twice what they were valued here.  Hardly "cratering."

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17 hours ago, solarpete said:

Quick follow-up, as I just saw Explo's post in Solar News about the JASO relisting.  Looks like they sold out for 360M here, then sold themselves to a new buyer in China for 1.1B.  So they're being valued over there more than twice what they were valued here.  Hardly "cratering."

Their last reported book equity was $1040M, so they're "just" getting the book value.  This seems like a lot only because they were trading so horribly below book value before. (possibly due to the lingering litigation thread on breached poly contracts).
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=208005&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2345392

CSIQ on the other hand is already trading close to book value right now, so assuming they would get roughly book value in China as well there's no incentive to change the listing place.

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18 hours ago, solarpete said:

...And yes, 18 is a good price now.  But 2019 is forecast to be BETTER than 2018.  So prices should get even better in 2019...

2019 is forecasted to be larger in installations vs. 2018, but where is the connection to CSIQ's share price?  Back in 2014 the market was only 40GW but CSIQ traded between $30-$40, i.e. higher than today.

Imho earnings is the decisive factor.  In 2014 they posted $4.11 in EPS, and then both EPS and share price went downhill from there.  As of lately EPS has recovered somehow, and so has their share price.  But where is EPS headed?  If you ask me it's going down.  The reason is simple:  Their project mix is shifting to lower ASP and lower margin projects as their Japanese business is slowly tapering off.

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All loaded up... will only take an analyst upgrade to stick this thing into the low 20s.  

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18 minutes ago, dydo said:

CSIQ pretty strong today

Canadian is strong today, but volume is extremely low... Robert, people need your detailed article on Seeking alpha to stimulate more interest... 

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4 minutes ago, MVA said:

Canadian is strong today, but volume is extremely low... Robert, people need your detailed article on Seeking alpha to stimulate more interest... 

I miss those articles too... how about a CSIQ article for old time's sake, Robert?  I would be curious to hear your detailed thoughts in light of the new China news (rumored news) and everything that's transpired over the last 6-12 months.  You're looking for potential trip to the 40s in years to come, Klothilde swears we're going to the 4s (or bankrupt) in years to come and I certainly respect both your opinions, but you couldn't be farther apart.

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