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dydo

Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

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15 minutes ago, Mark said:

Maybe if it goes on that long.  Correct me if I'm wrong, but Q1 should be much better than Q4.  And they can push Q1 earnings out until June.  Qu will get something done before then, so that all that good news on the balance sheet may never even be seen by us.  I think that's his strategy, that we never actually see the balance sheet transformation.  I bet we don't even see any press releases about projects sales moving forward.  Ever.

I would say more, from now on, after buyout offer, everything out of the ordinary in the way company conducts business can be considered as an attempt to manipulate (darken) value prospects of the company. And it will have cost for them/him.

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Isn't it time we moved beyond CSIQ? I know it's hard to say goodbye but shouldn't we just forget about it? What are the chances this goes above 20 bucks again? 0.1% or less?

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2 hours ago, Jetmoney said:

Robert, are you throwing in the towel? 

I plan to hold around 40%-50% until it either goes past $19 or buyout complete.  In the mean time, I will try to trade for $1 (buy in around $17.4 and sell around $18.4).  I bought back half what I sold yesterday this morning at $17.45.

I think the offer creates a ceiling, but also creates a floor price.  It might not go much above $18.47 but should not go much lower than $17.4 (thus the swing trade).  If someone come in with a better offer or the board comes up with higher offer, then it will go past $19.

Anyway, good luck to all CSIQ holders.  The offer might be a blessing creating a floor just in case the market (or solar) collapses.

I am trying to move on. I sold all I bought yesterday at 17.68 at 17.90 and what I kept through untouched. A lot of shares  for me so collected few bucks. Bought EIX and some PEGI. Probably dumb move with wind legislation but it is hard to find an attractive name. I may try to trade. However if I can make money moving it around I will. Looks like I am going to trade more than ever in last few years. I could buy if it goes below 17.00 but all the fundamental beauty of undervalued stock is gone. 

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1 hour ago, dydo said:

I am trying to move on. I sold all I bought yesterday at 17.68 at 17.90 and what I kept through untouched. A lot of shares  for me so collected few bucks. Bought EIX and some PEGI. Probably dumb move with wind legislation but it is hard to find an attractive name. I may try to trade. However if I can make money moving it around I will. Looks like I am going to trade more than ever in last few years. I could buy if it goes below 17.00 but all the fundamental beauty of undervalued stock is gone. 

An intention to buy the company to take it private does not mean it will happen. The offer is not binding - this is a key. JASO and several more stocks are a bright example.  Definitely CSIQ is trading at 30-40% of its intrinsic value. Buying in 18-19 range is nothing more than a stealing.

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19 minutes ago, alex_iff said:

An intention to buy the company to take it private does not mean it will happen. The offer is not binding - this is a key. JASO and several more stocks are a bright example.  Definitely CSIQ is trading at 30-40% of its intrinsic value. Buying in 18-19 range is nothing more than a stealing.

I do not know all answers. All I know is what happened with Trina and JASO. Trina was actually a lot cleaner but behaved exactly the same as JASO did. Sometime in the near future, the stock will trade closer to 10% average below the offer price. It will dwell there and the offer will become binding and everyone will be excited to shake it off at 18.47. This will be the clean version of it.

Talking about what it can be or would be is no longer relative. What it is a glass ceiling of $18.47.  What will follow is trading. I think we are all in agreement, not a single soul will offer money for the shares. It is very unlikely that board will call the offer inadequate? So what will happen? There are exactly 4 months before Q4 is released. This board may accept the offer next week. 

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Mr. QU bought 13,731M shares as of today filing. To collect so huge amount of shares without moving a share price it took 3-4 months at least. But it still less than 50% of SO. Various institutions hold over 35M shares. Not too easy to take the company private if they do not agree. Probably Mr. QU will have to buy shares from them for higher than his bid price(or already did it).

 

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2 minutes ago, alex_iff said:

Mr. QU bought 13,731M shares as of today filing. To collect so huge amount of shares without moving a share price it took 3-4 months at least. But it still less than 50% of SO. Various institutions hold over 35M shares. Not too easy to take the company private if they do not agree. Probably Mr. QU will have to buy shares from them for higher than his bid price(or already did it).

 

Alex, he has those shares since IPO, he refiled this today for purpose of his offer.

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3 hours ago, Klothilde said:

Isn't it time we moved beyond CSIQ? I know it's hard to say goodbye but shouldn't we just forget about it? What are the chances this goes above 20 bucks again? 0.1% or less?

Oh, come on.  Let us grieve and cry and hope a little bit, if only for the remainder of the week.  I was looking forward to paying for my twins entire preschool bill when CSIQ was finally 20+ next year.  Alas, we were robbed of that opportunity.  But please let us grieve a bit longer.  It's only been 2 trading sessions!  

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8 minutes ago, Mark said:

Oh, come on.  Let us grieve and cry and hope a little bit, if only for the remainder of the week.  I was looking forward to paying for my twins entire preschool bill when CSIQ was finally 20+ next year.  Alas, we were robbed of that opportunity.  But please let us grieve a bit longer.  It's only been 2 trading sessions!  

The question is what to do next? FSLR is too expensive, rest is pretty much not investable. Looks like only renewable utilities, yieldcos are left. Having to see tax equity and wind as the target for Trumps, it will be hard to find a renewable agenda for the money. 

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