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dydo

Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

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I am surprised with the reaction. SPWR does reflect on FSLR for sure and perhaps it business is impacted by the same factors as Chinese but they are in different places. So I am surprised 

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These are recent hires for Recurrent,

I am pretty sure if they were folding the shop they would not bring new people on. Canadian, Recurrent is planning to be in the US.

Recurrent Energy has brought on a slew of new senior-level people, including Kyle Johnson, who moved from Constellation to his new role of managing director and head of origination and structuring. Michael Avidan joined Recurrent as senior director of corporate origination from SunPower; Michael Arndt, formerly of NRG, is now managing director of development at Recurrent; and Spivey Paup, most recently the director of solar development at E.ON, is now director of development for Texas and the eastern U.S. with Recurrent.

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19 hours ago, sunburntbull said:

Maybe this is a dumb way to look at it, but I just added up PEGI's wind resources.  Something like 2GW?  

CSIQ has 800MW in the US alone.

PEGI is worth 2.2B.   CSIQ worth < 1B?    About equal to the MWs owned, but then CSIQ's module business is worth nothing.

Is the IRR so much better with wind?

Perhaps like anyone on the market could you managed to stumble on the reason why I consider CSIQ so undervalued.  CSIQ plants are not being valued because JKS and JASO are valued. Logic dictates that value of CSIQ to match the value of others is based only on manufacturing.

This means that PEGI being valued $2B for 2.7GW of resources and paying public $1.67 per share, is justified but the market cannot justify 1.1GW of resources, which pay CSIQ $120M paying down liability account. Even better, 563MW CAFD is worth more than CSIQ, by having half of the MW. If we did Market cap/ MW calculation we could say that CSIQ MW is worth only 49% of the MW owned by CAFD and CSIQ manufacturing has zero value.

The resource has no meaning, in this case, the presence of dividend explains valuation. And the paper bag over the head of the majority of investors who bought the story of Canadian's debt being a paralyzing agent, not accepting a reduction of principal managed by energy sales in the same PPA contracts and equity investors paying revenue to it.

I guess most perceive as Qu was the negotiator, manager, and executioner of the PPAs, sales and everything else, denying the talent, savvy and size of the caliber of people in the Recurrent organization then and now. Qu had recognized all of it. However, investors cannot see Chinese guy who struggles to speak English every time he opens his mouth to be complex enough to do well in those other deals. The market cannot link this value to Canadian. I hope I have done it for myself and I see it accurately and few perhaps agree.

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2 minutes ago, sunnypease said:

Interesting they have sold a project which is being built for COD in 2018, but not a word on those built already. Not sure how to read it. Is this a great market, projects in construction are selling or something else.  

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1 minute ago, dydo said:

Interesting they have sold a project which is being built for COD in 2018, but not a word on those built already. Not sure how to read it. Is this a great market, projects in construction are selling or something else.  

Could also be some cash flow issues.. selling a plant early to secure financing?  They are building so many plants around & hiring people @ Recurrent.  

Plus maybe wanting to guard cash in case Suniva becomes reality.  But then why wouldn't they be selling more existing plants?

I imagine that racism can be a big factor when dealing with power company executives, more so in the center of the US than California.  

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4 minutes ago, sunnypease said:

Could also be some cash flow issues.. selling a plant early to secure financing?  They are building so many plants around & hiring people @ Recurrent.  

Plus maybe wanting to guard cash in case Suniva becomes reality.  But then why wouldn't they be selling more existing plants?

I imagine that racism can be a big factor when dealing with power company executives, more so in the center of the US than California.  

No cash flow issues, At one point I thought it might be selling before Suniva, but they are still providing modules. Qu said at one point that they would sell projects in construction if there is no residual loss of it. One difference is that selling party is Recurrent and it is 100% sale. Both make sense; I consider that the market is good, but that project was not planned for sale, so it is a surprising move versus forecast.   I can only consider this to be due to the market demand. Other projects are likely sold as portfolio,

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This project was sold for rights and PPA. Maybe Canadian will provide modules, but no EPC will be offered. Not sure if this is a sign of staying in the US.

 

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38 minutes ago, sunnypease said:

Where is everyone?  

Congrats on the awesome sleuthwork Robert with the CVD refund.

A one time tax benefit for FSLR goes straight to non-GAAP earnings.  With CSIQ, a one time benefit does NOT go to non-GAAP earnings.

First time I've seen non-GAAP lower than GAAP. 

The reversal represented how many quarters of overcharging?  Because going forward should we expect less CVD ? Assuming no Suniva of course.

 

 

Nice shipment volumes and increased revenues. The Q3 Guidance with the margins being suggested indicate they should pull down a profit. My concern is where are all the project sales to reach their full year guidance. They need to have a very large Q4 for revenues if they are going to come close to their initial $4B to $4.2B of revenues.

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