odyd

Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

6,915 posts in this topic

Q1 solar plants were 437.5 and were worth $950M and had a GM of 20%,

Q2 solar plants are 472MW and are worth $850M and have a GM 15%,

The good news Q2 electricity doubled to $22.5M vs. $10M in Q1

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, odyd said:

Reviewing projects GM has down to mid teens from 20% so 5% loss Q to Q.

Yeah they took the value down from 950M to 850M and yet during the call they don't say anything about seeing the sale price of projects going down. I don't like the way they don't say things with confidence during these calls. They don't talk in enough specifics like they do in their press releases.

What is getting to me is the overall value they are now saying their US and existing projects will be worth at the end of 2017. They are putting a sale price on 1.37Gw at only $2.1B. If you  back out the now 850M for existing projects, that means their US projects are selling for only $1.4 which is ridiculously low. I'm simply not seeing any viable margin in these projects, but perhaps all the value is in the tax equity and doesn't transfer with the sale.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, BIPV Investor said:

Yeah they took the value down from 950M to 850M and yet during the call they don't say anything about seeing the sale price of projects going down. I don't like the way they don't say things with confidence during these calls. They don't talk in enough specifics like they do in their press releases.

 

They must have sold a project, They took $805M in revenue selling 1,290MW and JASO sold 1,153MW and took $618, that is $186M difference on 137MW. Any ideas from anyone? I got up early so maybe I am not focused and missing something

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, odyd said:

They must have sold a project, They took $805M in revenue selling 1,290MW and JASO sold 1,153MW and took $618, that is $186M difference on 137MW. Any ideas from anyone? I got up early so maybe I am not focused and missing something

Only 8.5% was from total solutions, which would be around 68M. I think the main difference is that CSIQ has stronger sales channels globally than JASO. JASO had been so focused on the domestic market, that when that collapsed they very quickly turned to cutting ASP to push them into global markets.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, BIPV Investor said:

Only 8.5% was from total solutions, which would be around 68M. I think the main difference is that CSIQ has stronger sales channels globally than JASO. JASO had been so focused on the domestic market, that when that collapsed they very quickly turned to cutting ASP to push them into global markets.

The average is 9 cents per watt more for CSIQ, that is impossible, and I am not even considering selling cells by JASO, which would make their module price lower than $53 cents. I think something in the US came off, they are showing a gross number again for the US without their share. Sneaky

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, odyd said:

The average is 9 cents per watt more for CSIQ, that is impossible, and I am not even considering selling cells by JASO, which would make their module price lower than $53 cents. I think something in the US came off, they are showing a gross number again for the US without their share. Sneaky

What is your Jaso ASP? I have CSIQ ASP $0.56. They had 52% shipped to high ASP regions.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I do not have the ASP. I took revenue and MW compared to each other. I am convinced they sold the interest somewhere.

Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Couple of confusing ratings Cowen $13, FBR $23

FBR note below

FBR & Co. trims its price target on Outperform-rated Canadian Solar (Nasdaq: CSIQ) from $32 down to $23 following recent Q2 results and outlook.

The firm noted key points from CSIQ's recently quarterly report:

2Q beat. CSIQ reported 2Q16 revenue of $805.7M, module shipments of 1.29 GW, and gross margin of 17.2%, ahead of its guidance of $710M.$760M for revenue, module shipments of 1.2 GW.1.25 GW, and 15%.17% gross margin, respectively.

Late-stage pipeline grows again; U.S. to boost portfolio. The late-stage pipeline grew to 2.4 GW from 2.1 GW QOQ, and total solar power plants in operation reached 472 MW, up from 438 MW QOQ. CSIQ expects to add more than 1.0 GW of operating plants in 2016, mainly in the U.S.

Positives include (1) it maintains annual module guidance of 5.4 GW.5.5 GW; (2) 1.185 GW of U.S.-based projects are still due to reach commercial operation in 2H16; and (3) it positioned itself for a weakening pricing environment with inventory reductions and moderation of planned capacity expansion.

Negatives include (1) weaker 3Q revenue guidance of $660M.$710M amid ASP pressure, although this does not include $32.9M in projects sold in China expected to close in 4Q; (2) project push-outs in Japan as the government tightened interconnection time frames for projects seeking feed-in tariffs; and (3) project resale values slipped a bit as CSIQ estimated closer to $1.80/MW versus $2.00/MW prior

1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, odyd said:

Couple of confusing ratings Cowen $13, FBR $23

FBR note below

FBR & Co. trims its price target on Outperform-rated Canadian Solar (Nasdaq: CSIQ) from $32 down to $23 following recent Q2 results and outlook.

The firm noted key points from CSIQ's recently quarterly report:

2Q beat. CSIQ reported 2Q16 revenue of $805.7M, module shipments of 1.29 GW, and gross margin of 17.2%, ahead of its guidance of $710M.$760M for revenue, module shipments of 1.2 GW.1.25 GW, and 15%.17% gross margin, respectively.

Late-stage pipeline grows again; U.S. to boost portfolio. The late-stage pipeline grew to 2.4 GW from 2.1 GW QOQ, and total solar power plants in operation reached 472 MW, up from 438 MW QOQ. CSIQ expects to add more than 1.0 GW of operating plants in 2016, mainly in the U.S.

Positives include (1) it maintains annual module guidance of 5.4 GW.5.5 GW; (2) 1.185 GW of U.S.-based projects are still due to reach commercial operation in 2H16; and (3) it positioned itself for a weakening pricing environment with inventory reductions and moderation of planned capacity expansion.

Negatives include (1) weaker 3Q revenue guidance of $660M.$710M amid ASP pressure, although this does not include $32.9M in projects sold in China expected to close in 4Q; (2) project push-outs in Japan as the government tightened interconnection time frames for projects seeking feed-in tariffs; and (3) project resale values slipped a bit as CSIQ estimated closer to $1.80/MW versus $2.00/MW prior

I think the last point is the one with the highest risk/uncertainty amidst the current environment. Expecting a $1.80/W re-sale price for their solar plants is overly optimistic, given that many solar plants from other developers that were built earlier have been sold in the $1.5-$1.7/W range. 

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One more from the Roth

Roth Capital affirms Canadian Solar (Nasdaq: CSIQ) at Buy with a price target of $20 following Q2 results and outlook issued early Thursday.

Analyst Philip Shen offered the following overall thoughts today: With the stock down 14% in August alone, CSIQ closed up 18% on short covering as the market was looking for a miss and even weaker guide, especially at the margin level. While we are just at the beginning of this industry downturn, our view is that CSIQ will likely be one of the best positioned companies in our module universe given its disciplined approach to navigating this downturn (aggressively managing inventory, minimizing bad debt, having a diversified sales network, and employing leading technology).

Heading into the quarter, investors were also concerned about the profitability of the company's 1.3GW latestage U.S. pipeline given recent peer earnings calls. It appears economics for the Recurrent pipeline may be healthier or more stable relative to others. Between the U.S. project pipeline and other projects expected to COD in 2017, we estimate the company could generate ~$6 in EPS that could support earnings over the next two years.

Near-term upside catalysts ahead include Recurrent COD announcements and partial/full sale announcements of U.S. projects that could drive earnings higher. Longerterm, the successful launch of a J-REIT in Japan targeted for Q2/Q3’17 could also be a positive. That said, negative industry data points could cap gains in shares. For 2016, we model 100MW of project sales in H2, but the company is expected to have 1.37GW in operation by year end that could be sold and drive upside to our estimates.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.