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Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

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Solarpete,

CSIQ had reported $10M in electricity sales in Q1 and $13M in Q4. Both numbers in the body of the release for Q1. Looking at the $50/437.5MW each watt generated $0.11.

The US assets say produce $0.08 (prior to ITC credit paid to a buyer) per kWh at 5 hours 365 would earn $146/1000 watts roughly $0.146, this means in my simplistic view 741MW in the US would deliver around $108M/Y. Both numbers, therefore look like $158M at 1.1GW or $39.5M/Q , TERP claims to have a fleet of 3GW. In Q1 they have produced revenue of $159M. the ratio of assets is about 2.63 so at 2.63 so you have $103M per quarter versus $159M. TERP assets produce 54% more in revenue.

The one piece which could make the difference is the cost of the assets between the two and how that cost related to the generation.

 

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Travis on the solar plant situation in the US. I think what Travis and most forget CSIQ has a pipeline for 2017 in Japan. Once again CSIQ could come out like a smartest solar company in the room if 2017 is a collapse of the US market and struggle to get plants sold when they put the Japanese portfolio up.

http://www.fool.com/investing/2016/08/13/are-solar-developers-in-trouble.aspx?source=yahoo-2&utm_campaign=article&utm_medium=feed&utm_source=yahoo-2

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It is interesting that 1.9GW produced $159M in Q3 and 2.9GW produced around the same in Q1 for TERP. Probably not assets were producing during the Q.

The Q3 assets were worth about $3.9B for 1.9GW or $2.05 that number is probably higher for TERP, for CSIQ the number at the cost is somewhere around $1.70, so around 18 to 19% CSIQ assets are cheaper.

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On 2016-08-13 at 10:50 AM, odyd said:

Travis on the solar plant situation in the US. I think what Travis and most forget CSIQ has a pipeline for 2017 in Japan. Once again CSIQ could come out like a smartest solar company in the room if 2017 is a collapse of the US market and struggle to get plants sold when they put the Japanese portfolio up.

http://www.fool.com/investing/2016/08/13/are-solar-developers-in-trouble.aspx?source=yahoo-2&utm_campaign=article&utm_medium=feed&utm_source=yahoo-2

I will be curious what they say about Japan and the projects. Based on past history, one can not rely on CSIQ Japanese project estimates. They have severely under performed in the past several years from what they claimed vs what actually happened. In this regards, they have missed guidance by 80% through 2016 from what was claimed 1 year earlier  in the April 2015 presentation. They did not build to 2015 guidance nor did they build to 2016 guidance as shown in 2015. They are now several years behind their plans with only 60% of the buildout being guided as COD by the end of 2017 from what was presented in April 2015. Even the 2017 numbers of over 300MW COD  are up in the air. They had already lost over 200MW of past late stage pipelines. As of Q116 they only had 200MW with signed connection agreements  and had only 109MW in construction. They have indicated they are waiting on a new Japanese Meti review that could put more projects at risk of not being built.

The  600MW identified from the 2015 April ER  that that was to be completed by the end of  2017, has now changed be completed by the end of  2020. That is now 100MW per year on average or half what was initially planned so far. Yes there have been many reasons  given as to why the targets have shifted or missed, but the facts are still the regarding backlog build in process and current guidance.

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2 hours ago, SCSolar said:

I will be curious what they say about Japan and the projects. Based on past history, one can not rely on CSIQ Japanese project estimates. They have severely under performed in the past several years from what they claimed vs what actually happened. In this regards, they have missed guidance by 80% through 2016 from what was claimed 1 year earlier  in the April 2015 presentation. They did not build to 2015 guidance nor did they build to 2016 guidance as shown in 2015. They are now several years behind their plans with only 60% of the buildout being guided as COD by the end of 2017 from what was presented in April 2015. Even the 2017 numbers of over 300MW COD  are up in the air. They had already lost over 200MW of past late stage pipelines. As of Q116 they only had 200MW with signed connection agreements  and had only 109MW in construction. They have indicated they are waiting on a new Japanese Meti review that could put more projects at risk of not being built.

The  600MW identified from the 2015 April ER  that that was to be completed by the end of  2017, has now changed be completed by the end of  2020. That is now 100MW per year on average or half what was initially planned so far. Yes there have been many reasons  given as to why the targets have shifted or missed, but the facts are still the regarding backlog build in process and current guidance.

I think they have adjusted their actions to the business and the markets. I am not a big fun of the behaviors etched in stone if they lead to a disaster. So far none of their actions have broken the company, but the plans in Japan are influenced by Japanese so I expect them to be flexed along actions taken by Japan. SUNEQ planned for 5GW in India and 30GW of projects, plans change, but if no change damages the company, naturally I prefer adjustments.

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On ‎8‎/‎13‎/‎2016 at 10:49 AM, odyd said:

Solarpete,

CSIQ had reported $10M in electricity sales in Q1 and $13M in Q4. Both numbers in the body of the release for Q1. Looking at the $50/437.5MW each watt generated $0.11.

The US assets say produce $0.08 (prior to ITC credit paid to a buyer) per kWh at 5 hours 365 would earn $146/1000 watts roughly $0.146, this means in my simplistic view 741MW in the US would deliver around $108M/Y. Both numbers, therefore look like $158M at 1.1GW or $39.5M/Q , TERP claims to have a fleet of 3GW. In Q1 they have produced revenue of $159M. the ratio of assets is about 2.63 so at 2.63 so you have $103M per quarter versus $159M. TERP assets produce 54% more in revenue.

The one piece which could make the difference is the cost of the assets between the two and how that cost related to the generation.

 

Thanks for that breakdown.  Interesting that TERP produces more revenue.

But as you say, a key piece is the cost.  It's nice to know the revenue, but revenue alone won't tell you if you have profits.  Are we able to deduce the profit for these projects?  (Simplistic approach:  we know each watt generated $0.11.  What's their average cost per watt?  Although that might be too simplistic--cost per watt might be quite different for selling panels vs. building projects, so the average of the two is not meaningful for questions relating specifically to one or the other.)

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First impressions,

No more yieldco, good EPS for Q2, upheld guidance for module sales, trying to monetize projects. Severe drop on Japan completion (Do not like that myself) . Devil in a details, reduction of expansion.

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"The Company recorded a foreign exchange gain in the second quarter of 2016 of  $24.9 million  compared to a foreign exchange gain of  $8.5 million  in the first quarter of 2016 and a foreign exchange loss of  $4.4 million  in the second quarter of 2015. "

Fx gain was the factor for the beat.

 

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I like the idea of the Japanese IPO of the trust. It appears they can get 500MW in it at the end maybe more based on the connections.

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Reviewing projects GM has down to mid teens from 20% so 5% loss Q to Q.

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