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Who's holding?  Buying?  Selling?  With the Qu news, the China news, the election and earnings coming up, honestly, I feel 100% confused on what I should be doing.  I'm a deer in the headlights right now, so sitting on my hands.   Anyone else have any clarity after sleeping on it?

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7 minutes ago, Mark said:

Who's holding?  Buying?  Selling?  With the Qu news, the China news, the election and earnings coming up, honestly, I feel 100% confused on what I should be doing.  I'm a deer in the headlights right now, so sitting on my hands.   Anyone else have any clarity after sleeping on it?

Mark,

Relax.  Nothing has changed in the big picture.  Things are challenging right now.  But grid parity everywhere is coming, and with it the age of solar.  The China news is added juice.  Things will look very different two years from now.  The big companies aren't going under.

Until then, use the volatility for swing trades if you have the capital and stomach for it.  Otherwise, concentrate on the future and ignore the intermediate swings.

Qu may come back with a new offer, or maybe he won't.  I actually hope he doesn't, as I think CSIQ will be worth more than $18 by 2020.  And the longer he puts off any new offer, the more obvious that should become to the Board.  But whatever he comes back with, it's got to be more than the current price.  So I don't see any benefit in selling right now.

Solarpete

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45 minutes ago, Mark said:

Who's holding?  Buying?  Selling?  With the Qu news, the China news, the election and earnings coming up, honestly, I feel 100% confused on what I should be doing.  I'm a deer in the headlights right now, so sitting on my hands.   Anyone else have any clarity after sleeping on it?

I dumped all my solars on the spike up yesterday. I clawed back to above break even to a 2-3% profit. That was up from the 25% I was down peak before averaging down. 

For now, I may buy back a small portion of JKS if it drops back  to low 9's. I am out of CSIQ for now. I believe they are investing in the wrong technology long term with their 5GW of poly wafer capacity. That hurts them some on trying to get Top Runner programs.

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55 minutes ago, Mark said:

Who's holding?  Buying?  Selling?  With the Qu news, the China news, the election and earnings coming up, honestly, I feel 100% confused on what I should be doing.  I'm a deer in the headlights right now, so sitting on my hands.   Anyone else have any clarity after sleeping on it?

4 main catalysts are ahead for CSIQ:

1) Midterm election today (Dems victory will be, probably, good for renewable stocks).

2) Earnings on November 15 (Results may be good, but watch out for guidance).

3) China revising its 2020 PV targets (If revised from 100 to 250 GW, then we have solid 50 GW/year until 2020, which perfectly offsets China May 31 policy change).

4) China declared yesterday readiness to start discussing trade policy with USA. May be solar tariffs will be canceled... Who knows...?

If all three are positive = $18+/share... why not?

Edited by MVA

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Add to the list that 500 MW monster project in California.  They referenced CSIQ as the module supplier of choice.  Nothing obviously has been agreed upon, but at least they're on the radar there.  3 million+ modules?  Yes, please.

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18 minutes ago, Mark said:

Add to the list that 500 MW monster project in California.  They referenced CSIQ as the module supplier of choice.  Nothing obviously has been agreed upon, but at least they're on the radar there.  3 million+ modules?  Yes, please.

Yes, I know. But tariffs in USA...? I don't know new "NAFTA" details with Canada, but just some thoughts in a loud voice: What if Recurrent can import free of tariffs PV cells (2 GW limit for entire USA), custom clear them in USA, and then to ship them in Canada, where they will be assembled into PV modules, through "tolling scheme" (as a service), and then shipped back in USA as modules. Thus, they may circumvent all tariffs... 

Edited by MVA

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34 minutes ago, MVA said:

4 main catalysts are ahead for CSIQ:

1) Midterm election today (Dems victory will be, probably, good for renewable stocks).

2) Earnings on November 15 (Results may be good, but watch out for guidance).

3) China revising its 2020 PV targets (If revised from 100 to 250 GW, then we have solid 50 GW/year until 2020, which perfectly offsets China May 31 policy change).

4) China declared yesterday readiness to start discussing trade policy with USA. May be solar tariffs will be canceled... Who knows...?

If all three are positive = $18+/share... why not?

Item 3: China has installed 165GW already in power. A bump to 250-275GW is 45+GW a year. I read some articles suggesting that China will not exceed 2017 install rate until something like 2025.

Item 4: If the cancel tariffs, then ASP falls quickly to the ROW. Keep in mind that the tax credits drops to 26% in 2020, 22% in 2021 and 10% in 2022.

 

 

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This guangfu article straightens out the rumors on the new China target.  Apparently there was a conference on friday where the central government proposed to raise the target to 210-230GW and then PV companies and local government officials said that that wasn't enough and requested a target of 250-270GW.
http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20181106/939533.shtml

Spin it as you like.  Me I think the consolidation is ahead of us and not behind us.

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41 minutes ago, Mark said:

It is better than nothing anyway... Two days ago doom & gloom in PV industry, and now everybody is arguing if extra 20 GW per year is good enough... :-)))))))))))) This is human nature... Always not enough... China target upgrade is net positive whatever way you look at it...

Edited by MVA

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5 minutes ago, MVA said:

It is better then nothing anyway... Two days ago doom & gloom in PV industry, and now everybody is arguing if extra 20 GW per year is good enough... :-)))))))))))) This is human nature... Always not enough... China target upgrade is net positive whatever way you look at it...

Yeah, goes back to my gripe the other day... that solar can never win.  Always someone to poo poo on it.  Good news is bad news and bad news is catastrophic.  

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13 minutes ago, Mark said:

Yeah, goes back to my gripe the other day... that solar can never win.  Always someone to poo poo on it.  Good news is bad news and bad news is catastrophic.  

Solar is a commodity business, same as mining & metals industry... Always cycles. It is a law. The only way to maintain stock price, regardless of cycles, is good Balance sheet.

Edited by MVA

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Canadian Solar Subsidiary Recurrent Energy Signs Build-Transfer Agreement with Entergy on 100 MWac Mississippi Solar Project

GUELPH, Ontario, Nov. 8, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- Canadian Solar Inc. ("Canadian Solar") (CSIQ), today announced its wholly owned subsidiary Recurrent Energy, LLC ("Recurrent Energy") has signed a build-transfer agreement ("BTA") for a base purchase price of approximately $138.4 millionwith Entergy Mississippi on a 100 megawatt ("MWac") solar photovoltaic project. One of the first solar BTAs to be signed in the U.S., this agreement is expected to provide Entergy with the largest utility-owned solar facility in the state of Mississippi, pending approval by the Mississippi Public Service Commission.

The 100 MWac Sunflower solar project, located on approximately 1,000 acres in Sunflower County, Mississippi, is being developed by Recurrent Energy. Once the facility is operational, which is expected by mid-2022, Entergy Mississippi will own the Sunflower project, allowing the regulated utility to power more than 16,000 homes with clean electricity.

"Across the globe, we continue to witness an evolution in the relationship that utilities have with solar energy," said Dr. Shawn Qu, chairman and chief executive officer of Canadian Solar. "This agreement marks one of the first build-transfer agreements for solar to be executed in the U.S., and we are very proud to have partnered with Entergy on this landmark deal. We look forward to a continued partnership on this and future projects."

The Sunflower project will use single-axis trackers and is expected to create approximately 360 jobs during construction.

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Odds of missing earnings estimates and seeing this thing tank --- 100%?  

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22 hours ago, Mark said:

Odds of missing earnings estimates and seeing this thing tank --- 100%?  

Define "tank"--at current prices, I'd say it's "tanked" already.

I don't think earnings will be that bad for CSIQ, DQ, or JKS--most of their production in any given quarter was usually put under contract long before then, so unless they have issues with contract cancellations, earnings shouldn't be that far off what's expected.

The bigger question will be the outlook for margins for the next quarter--that's where you'll see the impact of declining ASPs.  And that could be the catalyst for the next wave of selling.

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I think it could go a good bit lower.  Tank, meaning $10.  Dunno what Qu's intent is anymore.  It could just be the fact that the Chinese market is so poor, he couldn't re-list there now.  Or could be since the credit pinch is happening in China now, nobody would lend.  Then again, could be valuation concern.  I have a harder time stomaching that one given the assets.  Are they really worth substantially less than the balance sheet implies? 

Really comes down to how Lion Point and Qu play this.  Let it get beat up, then get a $14-15 binding offer in early next year or try and pump it up toward the 18.47 and see what happens from there.  I do like that ET and PVI both seem to say prices have stablized because of the China news.  That'll be one thing they can point to on the call about a stable outlook.  I think its a bigger deal than Credit Suisse would have us believe.  Because China has been making a push toward quality projects, so I can't see them adding, but allowing the small players to turn to zombies and stay in business.  Don't think given the current environment there, they'll just be ok with how projects may have been delivered in the past.

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On 11/6/2018 at 4:55 PM, SCSolar said:

I am out of CSIQ for now. I believe they are investing in the wrong technology long term with their 5GW of poly wafer capacity. That hurts them some on trying to get Top Runner programs.

Good point... Because the extra purchasing next year ( and this year?) will come from the Top Runner & DG programs correct?

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On 11/9/2018 at 1:23 PM, sunnypease said:

Good point... Because the extra purchasing next year ( and this year?) will come from the Top Runner & DG programs correct?

https://m.energytrend.com/research/view/12545.html

 

5.  As there are no new subsidy quotas released, developers should be very cautious with the execution of new projects.

Under the existing framework, EnergyTrend predicts that the accumulated grid-connected PV capacities by the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan will surpass 250 GW, with the new grid-connected capacities expected to exceed 35 GW in both 2019 and 2020. The new installations will be headed by projects related to the "Top Runner Program," followed by the poverty-alleviation and non-residential distributed generation systems.    

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