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Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

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4 hours ago, SCSolar said:

The total costs of modules could be under $0.18. This would be attributeable to  the move to poly costs in the  $5/Kg and an ASP in the $8-$9 range you have Si costs of $0.015-$0.027. Cost reductions on processing and materials of 8% a year would have costs fall from current $0.22 down to $0.157. That places production costs in the $0.172 to $0.194. I might speculate that the lower end range could be lower come 2022 from cost reductions due to mass of scale as the market size rises by 50%.

 

If any of those numbers fall in line, then FSLR will have problems competing with current S6 lines.

Why don't you do the crunchies for FSLR as well? You sound like you're in Cape Fear and a hurricane is approaching.

S6 was supposed to be 40% lower than S4 when ramped (aka 2019) and from there on take 10% cost reduction per year. 😝

And your 8% yoy cost savings in non-poly costs are in HUMONGOUS contrast to Junkosolar's progress over the last year or so which essentially was NIL.  And don't blame the plateauing entirely on the multi-mono migration please.  And now that I think about it, if conventional wisdom now says that mono processes are cheaper than multi, wouldn't a multi to mono migration rather speed up cost reduction instead of slowing it down?

Sorry for the nasty question.

I'm out for drinks.

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Canadian Solar Unveils BiHiKu, New 400+ Watt Poly Bifacial Solar Module, and HiDM, High Efficiency Black Shingled Module, at Solar Power International

GUELPH, Ontario, Sept. 24, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- Canadian Solar Inc. (the "Company", or "Canadian Solar") (CSIQ), one of the world's largest solar power companies, today unveiled our proprietary P4-based BiHiKu module, combining three industry leading solar PV technologies in one new 400+ Watt module: the latest black silicon, poly PERC, and bifacial cell technologies. Merging these technologies enables Canadian Solar to produce the BiHiKu module, a HiKumodule with bifaciality up to 75 percent.

This new poly solar module generates 400 Watts or more on the front, plus up to 30 percent additional power generation from the back side, dramatically increasing system yield and reducing the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE). The Company believes that BiHiKu is the first poly bifacial module exceeding 400+ Watt nominal front side power.

BiHiKu is perfect for large commercial or utility-scale solar installations, particularly where a high reflection ground or surface under the module creates high albedo, contributing to high back side yield. The product will be available in 2019 and pre-production orders are being accepted now.

In addition, Canadian Solar is introducing to the North America market the HiDM high density module, a shingled solar module with unique IP-granted design features and up to 19.9% module efficiency. The 60-cell sized mono PERC HiDM, up to 330 Watt, is an aesthetically pleasing all-black module perfect for residential rooftops. The 72-cell sized mono PERC HiDM, up to 410 Watt, is a highly efficient black module for commercial applications.

"As Canadian Solar continues on the forefront of solar module innovation, we are proud to introduce BiHiKu and HiDM as the next steps in maximizing the lifetime value of your solar assets," said Dr. Shawn Qu, chairman and chief executive officer of Canadian Solar. "Solar systems using BiHiKu will be able to break away from the pack and score high on low LCOE, making many seemingly impossible low PPA solar projects possible."

Canadian Solar's booth #1604 at Solar Power International (Anaheim, CA USA) honors the fact that Canada is the birthplace of hockey. Donning hockey jerseys, Canadian Solar staff will be talking about BiHiKu and HiDM as Canadian Solar's breakaway products, and showcasing the firm's solar hat trick of modules, inverters, and services.

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For anyone interested, I had emailed IR asking why the due diligence period was on Qu right now, since it seemed to me like the Board was on the hook to consider his offer and we were waiting on their opinion.  Response:

That is a reasonable question. My understanding is that since it was a non-binding offer, the Board needs confirmed financing commitments for Dr. Qu before it can move forward with its process.

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28 minutes ago, Mark said:

For anyone interested, I had emailed IR asking why the due diligence period was on Qu right now, since it seemed to me like the Board was on the hook to consider his offer and we were waiting on their opinion.  Response:

That is a reasonable question. My understanding is that since it was a non-binding offer, the Board needs confirmed financing commitments for Dr. Qu before it can move forward with its process.

Sounds logical, especially after TESLA's go private twits with "funding secured" joke... Nobody wants SEC investigation...

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Japan considering canceling FITs on unrealized projects:
http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201810040048.html

"...The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry will consider revoking certification given to solar power generation facilities that received it soon after the FIT system started but have yet to begin operations..."

This could hit CSIQ hard since a large chunk of the company's value stems from the Japanese pipeline.

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1 hour ago, Klothilde said:

Japan considering canceling FITs on unrealized projects:
http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201810040048.html

"...The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry will consider revoking certification given to solar power generation facilities that received it soon after the FIT system started but have yet to begin operations..."

This could hit CSIQ hard since a large chunk of the company's value stems from the Japanese pipeline. 

The article specifically references projects awarded within 3 years of the FIT system start in 2012, so that would be for projects awarded in 2012-2015.

Do we know when the CSIQ not-yet-built Japanese projects were awarded?  (I admit it--I'm too lazy to try to look it up on the CSIQ website.)

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1 hour ago, Klothilde said:

Japan considering canceling FITs on unrealized projects:
http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201810040048.html

"...The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry will consider revoking certification given to solar power generation facilities that received it soon after the FIT system started but have yet to begin operations..."

This could hit CSIQ hard since a large chunk of the company's value stems from the Japanese pipeline.

I do not think  the total exposure is as bad as you might suggest. They initially had 600MW back in 2015. The lost around 150MW shortly there after. They have built about 300MW to date of that remaining 450MW. They have 144MW that are target to be 2019/2020 . Of the 11MW due to be completed by the end of 2019, 67MW of that is under construction as of Q218 ER. I presume all these are  from the earlt FIT.

They also have signed more contracts that are pushed  out. In themiddle of 2016 they started showing build schedules that pushed into 2021 and beyond. I am under the presumption the 140MW that is target 2021 is lower FITS as most of this was added in the Q417 earnings presentations.

 

 

csiq japan Q218 update.xlsx

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6 minutes ago, solarpete said:

The article specifically references projects awarded within 3 years of the FIT system start in 2012, so that would be for projects awarded in 2012-2015.

Do we know when the CSIQ not-yet-built Japanese projects were awarded?  (I admit it--I'm too lazy to try to look it up on the CSIQ website.)

I estimate around 140-150MW of the initial eary FIT out of the initial 600MW. is left. Half of this is in construction as of Q2.

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Dr. Qu updating on PV manufacturing cost:

"I also gave a cost outlook in 2016. I was pretty accurate through Q4 2017. I was also accurate to predict that the manufacturing cost will go down to 25 cents per Watt, but I did not predict the timing right. Module manufacturing cost is reaching 25 cents per Watt in Q4 2018 for leading manufacturers, literally as we speak, rather than in Q4 of 2020 as I originally predicted."

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/breakaway-hat-trick-solar-dr-shawn-qu/

 

 

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1 hour ago, MVA said:

Dr. Qu updating on PV manufacturing cost:

"I also gave a cost outlook in 2016. I was pretty accurate through Q4 2017. I was also accurate to predict that the manufacturing cost will go down to 25 cents per Watt, but I did not predict the timing right. Module manufacturing cost is reaching 25 cents per Watt in Q4 2018 for leading manufacturers, literally as we speak, rather than in Q4 of 2020 as I originally predicted."

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/breakaway-hat-trick-solar-dr-shawn-qu/

 

 

Interesting that he is suggesting  installs at 104GW in 2018. That is not the 85-95 that most have suggested as revisions. He is  counting China as an emerging market in those values..

 

"Two years later, much to our surprise, the developing country market is expected to reach 70GW and 67% of the total market share in 2018. The mature developed country market is more or less the same 34GW as two years ago, but now only represents 33% of the total market share.

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23 hours ago, SCSolar said:

Two years later, much to our surprise, the developing country market is expected to reach 70GW and 67% of the total market share in 2018. The mature developed country market is more or less the same 34GW as two years ago, but now only represents 33% of the total market share.

Let's hope that translates to a pleasant surprise for earnings as well....

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4 minutes ago, Mark said:

Isn't this a parent of SunPower buying CSIQ's modules? I know SPWR is off the project grid, but one would think the parent would buy still from it. 

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If only the market had listened to Costner/JP Morgan when they said FSLR was a buying opportunity on the dip and headed back to $79.  This CSIQ go private has me exhausted... as does FSLR... as does the entire market, really.  Nobody's buying.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3399190-canadian-solar-minus-3-percent-j-p-morgan-cuts-sell-valuation

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From the JP Morgan comments yesterday... 

Aside from Canadian Solar, Coster said he does not recognize any imminent material cutbacks in production plans in the sector, as solar companies are  lapping strong competition around the world, he said.

I've read the last part of that several times.  What's he mean "solar companies are lapping strong competition around the world"?  I'm hung up on "lapping", which I take to mean running laps around, beating up, destroying... etc.  Does he simply mean that the Tier 1s are beating the competition presented by lower Tier price reductions?  

https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/18/10/12542210/with-a-take-private-deal-still-in-play-jpmorgan-downgra

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Yes. I agree it’s an interesting comment. Just from personal observation, the market seems to be transitioning away from subsidies, which will distinguish between well managed and mismanaged companies. The JinkoSolar, Canadian Solars, Longi, First Solar seen well positioned for the future. I may have missed several companies, but just wanted to make a point.

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1 hour ago, Mark said:

That looks close to their asset cost for the sale once you take out the power revenues from 2 years. That would be in line with very low single digit margins that had been suggested for US assets.

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150MW California project with 180MW of storage

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/largest-california-solar-plus-storage-123000022.html

 

Canadian Solar Inc. ("Canadian Solar") (CSIQ), today announced its wholly owned subsidiary Recurrent Energy LLC ("Recurrent Energy") has signed two 15-year power purchase agreements ("PPA") with Silicon Valley Clean Energy and Monterey Bay Community Power for a 150 megawatt ("MWac") solar power system with 180 megawatt-hours ("MWh") of battery storage. This joint procurement effort represents the largest contracted solar-plus-storage project in California to date.

 

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On 9/24/2018 at 8:40 AM, dydo said:

Canadian Solar Unveils BiHiKu, New 400+ Watt Poly Bifacial Solar Module, and HiDM, High Efficiency Black Shingled Module, at Solar Power International

GUELPH, Ontario, Sept. 24, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- Canadian Solar Inc. (the "Company", or "Canadian Solar") (CSIQ), one of the world's largest solar power companies, today unveiled our proprietary P4-based BiHiKu module, combining three industry leading solar PV technologies in one new 400+ Watt module: the latest black silicon, poly PERC, and bifacial cell technologies. Merging these technologies enables Canadian Solar to produce the BiHiKu module, a HiKumodule with bifaciality up to 75 percent.

This new poly solar module generates 400 Watts or more on the front, plus up to 30 percent additional power generation from the back side, dramatically increasing system yield and reducing the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE). The Company believes that BiHiKu is the first poly bifacial module exceeding 400+ Watt nominal front side power.

BiHiKu is perfect for large commercial or utility-scale solar installations, particularly where a high reflection ground or surface under the module creates high albedo, contributing to high back side yield. The product will be available in 2019 and pre-production orders are being accepted now.

In addition, Canadian Solar is introducing to the North America market the HiDM high density module, a shingled solar module with unique IP-granted design features and up to 19.9% module efficiency. The 60-cell sized mono PERC HiDM, up to 330 Watt, is an aesthetically pleasing all-black module perfect for residential rooftops. The 72-cell sized mono PERC HiDM, up to 410 Watt, is a highly efficient black module for commercial applications.

"As Canadian Solar continues on the forefront of solar module innovation, we are proud to introduce BiHiKu and HiDM as the next steps in maximizing the lifetime value of your solar assets," said Dr. Shawn Qu, chairman and chief executive officer of Canadian Solar. "Solar systems using BiHiKu will be able to break away from the pack and score high on low LCOE, making many seemingly impossible low PPA solar projects possible."

Canadian Solar's booth #1604 at Solar Power International (Anaheim, CA USA) honors the fact that Canada is the birthplace of hockey. Donning hockey jerseys, Canadian Solar staff will be talking about BiHiKu and HiDM as Canadian Solar's breakaway products, and showcasing the firm's solar hat trick of modules, inverters, and services.

Didn't SPWR say they patented shingled module design? 

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