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Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

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1 hour ago, sunnypease said:

Just to verify, you think that 17.5c / Watt is the minimum price you see prices going to in about 10 years?

 

I would view a worst case scenario of companies being profitable with an  ASP above of $0.175+$0.035=$0.21
I would view a better case scenario of companies being profitable with an ASP above $0.15+$0.03 = $0.18  
I would view a best case scenarion of companies being profitable with an ASP above $0.13+$0.025 = $0.0155

 

1 hour ago, sunnypease said:

Also.. because the supply chain is in China, these expenses are not really 17.5c / Watt, but are the equiv. RMB, correct?  

 

I am using USD as a reference. Currency fluctuations would change the results.
In my example I use a cost savings in areas that detail a  drop in manufacturing of modules to atleast $0.175/watt.
If you use a slower Mores Law adjusted 25% cost reduction per doubling of capacity for the next decade,
Then a $0.24-$0.28 cost to manufacture today drops to $0.15 to $0.175 cost to manufacture.

1 hour ago, sunnypease said:

Then you say Opex, including shipping will be 0.04 / Watt more?

 

I am saying the ASP to be profitable is Cost to manufacture + Opex + Interest + Profit

I am saying today Opex is at $0.04/watt including shipping look at the JKS and JASO ERS.


I expect it to drop 25% or more per doubling of capacity.
A 10% shipment growth per year places shipments aproaching 300GW.
A 25% lower Sales cost(including shipping) on efficiency gains of 25%(aka 23-25% efficient modules) is $0.007 savings from todays costs of $0.027(JKS Q4).
A 25% lower Admin cost per watt per doubling of shipments places General Admin around $0.0045 from todays $0.007/watt.
A 25% lower RnD  cost per watt per doubling of shipments places RnD at $0.00329 from todays $0.0516/watt

Based on the market growth forcast at 10%+ per year for the next 10 years and savings at 25% per doubling of shipments
Opex=$0.02+$0.0045+$0.00329 = ~$0.0278 or $0.03 or less.

 

1 hour ago, sunnypease said:

And then you mention interest.  Do you mean interest expense from LT debt? 
 

Yes. Depending on module manufacturer and volumes Interest Net Income runs $0.0035-$0.01/watt.
This drops to $0.0027 to $0.0068/watt with a 2.5 times increase in shipments at a 25% reduction per doubling.

I expect then in 10 years that the Opex and+ Interest will be under $0.04/watt and in the range of $0.03-$0.035.
down from todays $0.045-$0.05. It could be lower.

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Thank you SCSolar for the further detail & clarifications.  

It seems that these days the BOS costs are greater than the module cost & so I would hope that could be reduced.  Perhaps by automating installation, especially in the US and Europe (higher cost of labor).

 

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