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dydo

Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

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Another factor which is not being discussed here is that book value of the company went up since the offer. Using Q4 results, the book value was $17.10 per share. Today, Q1 inclusive, the value is $18.45. So the offer is literally a book.  I know that means very little in the offer for JASO, but I think there is a difference between two companies. 

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2 hours ago, dydo said:

Another factor which is not being discussed here is that book value of the company went up since the offer. Using Q4 results, the book value was $17.10 per share. Today, Q1 inclusive, the value is $18.45. So the offer is literally a book.  I know that means very little in the offer for JASO, but I think there is a difference between two companies. 

This is mostly because of the value of their solar fields?

I noticed they bough an Argentinian project.  Probably thought it was a good deal given the sudden devalue of the peso.  However, it looks like the Argentine peso took another leg down.

Edited by sunnypease

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17 minutes ago, sunnypease said:

This is mostly because of the value of their solar fields?

I noticed they bough an Argentinian project.  Probably thought it was a good deal given the sudden devalue of the peso.  However, it looks like the Argentine peso took another leg down.

this is mostly because of their earnings.; 

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13 hours ago, dydo said:

Another factor which is not being discussed here is that book value of the company went up since the offer. Using Q4 results, the book value was $17.10 per share. Today, Q1 inclusive, the value is $18.45. So the offer is literally a book.  I know that means very little in the offer for JASO, but I think there is a difference between two companies. 

Yes,  $18.45/share currently, but if to sell now all, already accumulated, projects - book value is going to be around 24-26$/share. Isn't it? Especially if CAPEX will be reduced now due to Chinese policy change.  

And it looks like JP Morgan was hoarding Canadian shares in the period of December 2017 - June 2018, at average price of 15-16$/share.  Now they own more than 10% of the company.  I find it hard to believe they will accept anything lower than 18,47$/share... 

Edited by MVA

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19 hours ago, MVA said:

Yes,  $18.45/share currently, but if to sell now all, already accumulated, projects - book value is going to be around 24-26$/share. Isn't it? Especially if CAPEX will be reduced now due to Chinese policy change.  

And it looks like JP Morgan was hoarding Canadian shares in the period of December 2017 - June 2018, at average price of 15-16$/share.  Now they own more than 10% of the company.  I find it hard to believe they will accept anything lower than 18,47$/share... 

I think there is about $200 plus M to add based on projects. Capex will not affect the book since book is shareholders equity via earnings. I would say they can add perhaps $100M to it this year or less. JPM is probably wanting to buy more shares, as they know Qu will buy it.

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16 hours ago, dydo said:

I think there is about $200 plus M to add based on projects. Capex will not affect the book since book is shareholders equity via earnings. I would say they can add perhaps $100M to it this year or less. JPM is probably wanting to buy more shares, as they know Qu will buy it.

JPM between 15 & 16.   Me at 14.40   I'm feeling OK!  Just wish I'd reached my mother to sell when it recently hit 18.   Next day it dropped & just kept dropping.  Market is crazy.  CSIQ will continue to kick ass and dominate the world's clean energy supply.

Maybe JPM could even make a competitive bid for the company at this point?  Or do banks not do that.  I'm surprised there isn't a single oil company right now to buy this company at a suddenly attractive price.  How about Buffett who keeps saying he is looking for a good clean energy deal.  Hello!

Edited by sunnypease

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19 minutes ago, sunnypease said:

JPM between 15 & 16.   Me at 14.40   I'm feeling OK!  Just wish I'd reached my mother to sell when it recently hit 18.   Next day it dropped & just kept dropping.  Market is crazy.  CSIQ will continue to kick ass and dominate the world's clean energy supply.

Maybe JPM could even make a competitive bid for the company at this point?  Or do banks not do that.  I'm surprised there isn't a single oil company right now to buy this company at a suddenly attractive price.  How about Buffett who keeps saying he is looking for a good clean energy deal.  Hello!

It's evident you did not experience 2011-2012. Why was nobody bidding for JKS when it's market cap hit $50 million on billion size revenue due to temporary margin compression?  Answer: market pricing of financial assets and responses to it are not rational at all times.  All we can do is to be prepared for any market pricing of any individual asset at any time. 

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New modules by CSIQ

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/canadian-solar-launches-next-generation-113000563.html
GUELPH, Ontario, June 14, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- Canadian Solar Inc. (the "Company", or "Canadian Solar"), one of the world's largest solar power companies, announced it will introduce the global launch of its next generation solar modules at Intersolar Europe which will be held from June 20 - 22, 2018 in Munich, Germany.  The Company's Chairman and CEO Dr. Shawn Qu will inaugurate BiKu, HiKu and HiDM modules during an exclusive event.  Canadian Solar's BiKu modules are at the forefront of high efficiency dual-cell bifacial modules in the industry.

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On 6/8/2018 at 5:37 PM, pg6solar said:

Third day in a row AH, at around 5PM eastern, a huge block at the closing price. I speculate it is not a reconciliation trade and that Qu is buying at the close and if so the buyout is still on. The only question is the price. (IMHO, I can not see why would he still pay almost 50% above current price, but even $15-16 will be readily accepted.) 

Something unusual is happening with CSIQ. As mentioned above, last week - Wed, Thr & Fir - at 5PM over 200K shares blocks, each day, at closing price. Now this week yesterday - 151+K block after 6PM and today an other 58K well after 6PM all at closing price.

It is extremely unusual for the reconciliation to take place so late and on days with relative small volume in a given stock and with no general market related moves, so those are not reconciliation trades. Someone is buying those shares (Qu?), but who is selling at these levels? Is there a deal made on a side?  

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8 hours ago, pg6solar said:

Something unusual is happening with CSIQ. As mentioned above, last week - Wed, Thr & Fir - at 5PM over 200K shares blocks, each day, at closing price. Now this week yesterday - 151+K block after 6PM and today an other 58K well after 6PM all at closing price.

It is extremely unusual for the reconciliation to take place so late and on days with relative small volume in a given stock and with no general market related moves, so those are not reconciliation trades. Someone is buying those shares (Qu?), but who is selling at these levels? Is there a deal made on a side?  

Note also that stocks don't tend to become hedge fund playground until a definite offer is made. So something else is going on that might have to do with information (alpha source) about how the stock will change from one with (alpha players irrelevant) non-binding offer to a (market disconnected, sweet alpha source, etc.) stock with a definite offer.

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1 hour ago, explo said:

Note also that stocks don't tend to become hedge fund playground until a definite offer is made. So something else is going on that might have to do with information (alpha source) about how the stock will change from one with (alpha players irrelevant) non-binding offer to a (market disconnected, sweet alpha source, etc.) stock with a definite offer.

Couldn't this be Qu himself buying it up on the cheap?

Who is selling at these levels?  Everybody... 

Arent these after market close orders booked by a broker that is buying on behalf of a client throughout the day?

Edited by sunnypease

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22 minutes ago, sunnypease said:

Arent these after market close orders booked by a broker that is buying on behalf of a client throughout the day?

Or deals between large clients that are brokered directly without use of the exchange?

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4 minutes ago, explo said:

Or deals between large clients that are brokered directly without use of the exchange?

Do you think it could be advantageous to buy some near the money / in the money 3 month out calls?

Edited by sunnypease

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13 minutes ago, sunnypease said:

Do you think it could be advantageous to buy some near the money / in the money 3 month out calls?

I exited the sector around a year ago due to a change to a more diversified strategy, so I'm not tracking current opportunities in it well.

Generally I would say that we retail investors have a lot more fact to go on to make arbitrage decisions when a definite offer is in place. Until then we are just guessing that there is arbitrage to reap by some pattern observed. This seems much more risky to me (and the arbitrage will be bigger if realized), so a strategy to reap that would required diversifying such guesses in smaller chunks among several similar opportunities (not necessarily occurring at the same time).

Hedge funds will likely use their force to deceive retail investors to sub-optimal trading once the offer is definite. A savvy retail investor can exploit that action instead of being a victim of it. Some people did it here with TSL. This should be a safer arbitrage bet (and surprisingly large) that allows commitment of more capital than the more guess like bets.

Edited by explo
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Heavy downside pressure with relatively high volume right out the door with fresh 1yr low. Does the market "expect" imminent lower offer?

Edited by pg6solar

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19 minutes ago, pg6solar said:

Heavy downside pressure with relatively high volume right out the door with fresh 1yr low. Does the market "expect" imminent lower offer?

do you think trade issues between China and the US having to play a part?

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3 minutes ago, dydo said:

do you think trade issues between China and the US having to play a part?

Not if it "effects" CSIQ, a Canadian company, much more than Chinese companies.

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2 minutes ago, pg6solar said:

Not if it "effects" CSIQ, a Canadian company, much more than Chinese companies.

I think Qu is selling his shares, it feels like it. 

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So those large orders coming in after market hours.. those could have been Qu SELLING... not buying?

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4 minutes ago, dydo said:

I think Qu is selling his shares, it feels like it. 

No, not saying that, but a lower offer or no offer, are now more likely.

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