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dydo

Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

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1 minute ago, Klothilde said:

You mean how he kept clearing his throat again and again? I was so disgusted... Sometines these guys forget that there are also ladies listening to the con calls.

Haha, the throat clearing was obnoxious.  The obfuscation continues, but in new and creative ways.

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3 minutes ago, Mark said:

Haha, the throat clearing was obnoxious.  The obfuscation continues, but in new and creative ways.

To be honest with you Mark, I saw today not a single sign of "obfuscation"... I guess Qu decided to do it (goPrivate) honest and correct way... Therefore, I am strongly convinced now that price will be adjusted to $20 - 21/share level... BOD/Committee not stupid, they know now that they will be asked eventually to justify 18.47/share versus 20-26/share at JKS... and we all know what JKS is...

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1 minute ago, pg6solar said:

5 weeks ago, JKS sold 4M shares at $18.15. So $18.47 for CSIQ looks good.

We will see. Very soon :-)

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15 hours ago, MVA said:

To be honest with you Mark, I saw today not a single sign of "obfuscation"... I guess Qu decided to do it (goPrivate) honest and correct way... Therefore, I am strongly convinced now that price will be adjusted to $20 - 21/share level... BOD/Committee not stupid, they know now that they will be asked eventually to justify 18.47/share versus 20-26/share at JKS... and we all know what JKS is...

So those 2 big red candles in advance of his offer are 'honest and correct'?  Stock was 19.09 at the high, before someone took an ax to it.  An ax at a time when investors and analysts were getting excited about the prospects for them cleaning up the balance sheet by monetizing these projects.  Everyone was just waiting for $20+ in the short term and both technicals and fundamentals were supportive.  There was nothing honest or correct about him taking advantage of market weakness (whether it was created for the go private reason or not) to get the company for less than the $19 it was trading at a few weeks earlier.  He's buying the company... he wants the best deal for himself, not for us.

As for the board, this is Qu's baby.  Just like Gao with Trina.  The board isn't out for shareholders any more than Qu is, so the romantic thought that this bunch of board members are looking out for your best interests?  Sorry, time to wake up.  I think this is more of a Trina than a JASO situation, so I don't see a lower offer coming.  Institutional investors are driving the price down and trashing this as much as possible to gobble up shares down here to offset potential losses or to take advantage of the gains to 18.47.  

Jinko is unlikely to be 20-26 a share for an extended period.  They have no projects to sell and we all know how profitable the module side is right now and they just diluted further.  

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3 hours ago, Mark said:

So those 2 big red candles in advance of his offer are 'honest and correct'?  Stock was 19.09 at the high, before someone took an ax to it.  An ax at a time when investors and analysts were getting excited about the prospects for them cleaning up the balance sheet by monetizing these projects.  Everyone was just waiting for $20+ in the short term and both technicals and fundamentals were supportive.  There was nothing honest or correct about him taking advantage of market weakness (whether it was created for the go private reason or not) to get the company for less than the $19 it was trading at a few weeks earlier.  He's buying the company... he wants the best deal for himself, not for us.

As for the board, this is Qu's baby.  Just like Gao with Trina.  The board isn't out for shareholders any more than Qu is, so the romantic thought that this bunch of board members are looking out for your best interests?  Sorry, time to wake up.  I think this is more of a Trina than a JASO situation, so I don't see a lower offer coming.  Institutional investors are driving the price down and trashing this as much as possible to gobble up shares down here to offset potential losses or to take advantage of the gains to 18.47.  

Jinko is unlikely to be 20-26 a share for an extended period.  They have no projects to sell and we all know how profitable the module side is right now and they just diluted further.  

I was talking about events after Dec-11/2017... Regardless of how I hate them for what they did to long term investors (me), I see no manipulations from the company's management after Dec-11/2017... ANALysts, on the other hand, yes - they do manipulate with their stupid upgrade/downgrade game....

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The king of bulls, Oppenheimer revised their PT from 31 to 19.  For the obvious reason.  

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$18.47/share.  At this price, you would get a cool 20% if/when that happens.  Seems like a good buy, unless he lowers the offer price (like JASO did).

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Interesting report today, margins to 20%, what drives them?

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6 minutes ago, dydo said:

Interesting report today, margins to 20%, what drives them?

Module margins in the high teens and higher margin project sales(aka non U.S. projects)

 

Q1 module margins are in high teens but US project sales dragged down the total margins.

 

Those comments are consistent with HQCL reporting high teen margins the other day. This should bode well for JKS in Q2 if they get their modules ramped and keep reducing OEM as a %.

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1 minute ago, SCSolar said:

Module margins in the high teens and higher margin project sales(aka non U.S. projects)

Thanks, sounds good, Their growth for this year is also there, based on the Q4 release. Wonder if Qu will buy her. 

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2 minutes ago, dydo said:

Thanks, sounds good, Their growth for this year is also there, based on the Q4 release. Wonder if Qu will buy her. 

To follow that up, they are looking at 399MW of US projects being sold sometime in Q2-Q4. It is not in the guidance to happen in Q2 but whenever it does, you can expect the margins to be hurt significantly again.

The ASP of the US projects sold to KEPCO appears to be $2.33. That puts margins in the range of 3-5% for the US projects when you factor out module shipments at say 17% margins.  Presuming similar margins for the remaining 399MW, that gives a revenue range of $920-$930M and gross profits of $45-$47M. You can figure the margin impact with their baseline 1500-1600MW of shipments per Q.

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closed out my CSIQ position on the pop this morning.  good luck

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Canadian achieved quite solid results: EPS (last 4 Qs): $2.61/share. Debt is going down. Book value is around $19.5/share now...

What a shame... If not this stupid offer ($18.47), we would fly now to $27-$32/share...

Jinco is above $20/share now, with zero projects in their portfolio... How this committee is going to justify 18.47...?

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Third day in a row AH, at around 5PM eastern, a huge block at the closing price. I speculate it is not a reconciliation trade and that Qu is buying at the close and if so the buyout is still on. The only question is the price. (IMHO, I can not see why would he still pay almost 50% above current price, but even $15-16 will be readily accepted.) 

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19 hours ago, pg6solar said:

Third day in a row AH, at around 5PM eastern, a huge block at the closing price. I speculate it is not a reconciliation trade and that Qu is buying at the close and if so the buyout is still on. The only question is the price. (IMHO, I can not see why would he still pay almost 50% above current price, but even $15-16 will be readily accepted.) 

Interesting PG. I was not watching as much. I think that lower offer would be accepted as well, however, I do not think the lower offer will be made. CSIQ shares are not ADR. The company is incorporated in Canada and its business, including Recurrent, has the strong US presence. Qu owns shares of CSIQ, over 13M. By lowering the price he would be lowering the value of the company he wants to own and I imagine he has global business plans to use this value.

The consortium who will be buying the company with him understands the enterprise value. The situation in China impact CSIQ but not so much. Once again their plant business can act as a sponge. The technology can continue to replace older capacity, but expansions will not proceed. The share price is not a reflection of the value of the company.

In the world of global finance, the balance to the offer is peanuts. I am not sure if he or party on behalf of the offer are acquiring shares, perhaps there is a legal limit to do so. I also think that current price, could and this is my mindset change, get the activist investor and pursue the offer without changes from Qu.

I am excited to own shares in CSIQ today, again. His offer made me lose interest, now the crisis made the shares attractive and the offer is playing the part of this attraction. GLTA

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