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dydo

Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

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Yeah, I'm buying some tomorrow in the wife's 401k.  Liquidated a useless mutual fund, I'll take 15%+

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CSIQ is becoming an interesting stock trading now 15% below buyout price. The only question is a buyout real and when. I have no objections to make 15% within say 1 month.

Edited by alex_iff

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42 minutes ago, alex_iff said:

The only question is a buyout real and when.

Hard to say.  Trina's went through in what--about a year?  And JASO is now 2 years and counting and still not done?  So I doubt we're within a month of a buyout closing.  Plus, what's to prevent CSIQ from pulling a Trina and lowering the bid?  (Or was that JASO?  All these buyouts are starting to confuse me....)

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Yeah, I doubt this closes this year.

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2 hours ago, MVA said:

About 2.4MW being acquired from CSIQ

details below

https://www.canadiansolarinfra.com/file/en-news-4eba93510b554484af3bdbac8c191d870d065e3c.pdf

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3 minutes ago, dydo said:

CSIQ sells UK portfolio at $1.88 equity and $1.21 non-recourse coverage, total price looks like $3.09/w

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/canadian-solar-completes-sale-142mwp-120000100.html

Robert, Is it in line with your prediction 4 month ago, or the result is better? ...I can't get access to your last article at Seeking Alpha to refresh my memory...

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40 minutes ago, MVA said:

Robert, Is it in line with your prediction 4 month ago, or the result is better? ...I can't get access to your last article at Seeking Alpha to refresh my memory...

Better, I had equity at $1.68, but volume was 150MW, not 142MW.

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7 minutes ago, dydo said:

Better, I had equity at $1.68, but volume was 150MW, not 142MW.

Thank you

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5 hours ago, Klothilde said:

Only hours away from earnings. What are you guys expecting? Anybody holding thru earnings?

Yes, I am holding until the buyout goes through. I am expecting $0.50 before 1 time adjustments and Forex based on their revisions.

As far as the revisions go, that suggest that there is some $25-$30M in equity from the US project sales that slipped out. This is based on their margins guidance changes and earnings decline changes from the initial Q4 guidance. The changes to the prior guidance suggests 3-5% margins for the U.S. projects.  These projects should be additive to any weakness they may have in Q1 to continue their profitability. 

 

The poly drop and ASP declines for mono and multi should benefit CSIQ heading into Q2. That times well with their internal wafer capacity roll out for their half cell modules. That is all moot as the buyout offer caps the share price and any potential strength. 

What is interesting about the sector is I believe that the costs structures are aligning with the mass of scale volumes to make 2019 the year the earnings powers is set for decent growth. With a slim $0.04 gross and a 12GW shipment volumes, I might expect earnings to be pushing  $1.50 plus a share for a JKS. It is quite possible the earnings accelerate beyond that significantly if the cost to asp spread increases above a penny per watt.

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Oh I'm out with the girls but that's an interesting topic. Profits in solar? Or eternal oversupply with prices at cash cost? I'll give it some thought when I'm sober again. Good luck with CSIQ, hope you get the buyout price and make some good money!

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Qu presentation was good today, clear and distinctly... I think buyout price will be adjusted to $19,5 - $20.5/share level... 

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1 hour ago, MVA said:

...clear and distinctly... 

You mean how he kept clearing his throat again and again? I was so disgusted... Sometines these guys forget that there are also ladies listening to the con calls.

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