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dydo

Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

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15 minutes ago, Mark said:

Maybe if it goes on that long.  Correct me if I'm wrong, but Q1 should be much better than Q4.  And they can push Q1 earnings out until June.  Qu will get something done before then, so that all that good news on the balance sheet may never even be seen by us.  I think that's his strategy, that we never actually see the balance sheet transformation.  I bet we don't even see any press releases about projects sales moving forward.  Ever.

I would say more, from now on, after buyout offer, everything out of the ordinary in the way company conducts business can be considered as an attempt to manipulate (darken) value prospects of the company. And it will have cost for them/him.

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Isn't it time we moved beyond CSIQ? I know it's hard to say goodbye but shouldn't we just forget about it? What are the chances this goes above 20 bucks again? 0.1% or less?

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2 hours ago, Jetmoney said:

Robert, are you throwing in the towel? 

I plan to hold around 40%-50% until it either goes past $19 or buyout complete.  In the mean time, I will try to trade for $1 (buy in around $17.4 and sell around $18.4).  I bought back half what I sold yesterday this morning at $17.45.

I think the offer creates a ceiling, but also creates a floor price.  It might not go much above $18.47 but should not go much lower than $17.4 (thus the swing trade).  If someone come in with a better offer or the board comes up with higher offer, then it will go past $19.

Anyway, good luck to all CSIQ holders.  The offer might be a blessing creating a floor just in case the market (or solar) collapses.

I am trying to move on. I sold all I bought yesterday at 17.68 at 17.90 and what I kept through untouched. A lot of shares  for me so collected few bucks. Bought EIX and some PEGI. Probably dumb move with wind legislation but it is hard to find an attractive name. I may try to trade. However if I can make money moving it around I will. Looks like I am going to trade more than ever in last few years. I could buy if it goes below 17.00 but all the fundamental beauty of undervalued stock is gone. 

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1 hour ago, dydo said:

I am trying to move on. I sold all I bought yesterday at 17.68 at 17.90 and what I kept through untouched. A lot of shares  for me so collected few bucks. Bought EIX and some PEGI. Probably dumb move with wind legislation but it is hard to find an attractive name. I may try to trade. However if I can make money moving it around I will. Looks like I am going to trade more than ever in last few years. I could buy if it goes below 17.00 but all the fundamental beauty of undervalued stock is gone. 

An intention to buy the company to take it private does not mean it will happen. The offer is not binding - this is a key. JASO and several more stocks are a bright example.  Definitely CSIQ is trading at 30-40% of its intrinsic value. Buying in 18-19 range is nothing more than a stealing.

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19 minutes ago, alex_iff said:

An intention to buy the company to take it private does not mean it will happen. The offer is not binding - this is a key. JASO and several more stocks are a bright example.  Definitely CSIQ is trading at 30-40% of its intrinsic value. Buying in 18-19 range is nothing more than a stealing.

I do not know all answers. All I know is what happened with Trina and JASO. Trina was actually a lot cleaner but behaved exactly the same as JASO did. Sometime in the near future, the stock will trade closer to 10% average below the offer price. It will dwell there and the offer will become binding and everyone will be excited to shake it off at 18.47. This will be the clean version of it.

Talking about what it can be or would be is no longer relative. What it is a glass ceiling of $18.47.  What will follow is trading. I think we are all in agreement, not a single soul will offer money for the shares. It is very unlikely that board will call the offer inadequate? So what will happen? There are exactly 4 months before Q4 is released. This board may accept the offer next week. 

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Mr. QU bought 13,731M shares as of today filing. To collect so huge amount of shares without moving a share price it took 3-4 months at least. But it still less than 50% of SO. Various institutions hold over 35M shares. Not too easy to take the company private if they do not agree. Probably Mr. QU will have to buy shares from them for higher than his bid price(or already did it).

 

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2 minutes ago, alex_iff said:

Mr. QU bought 13,731M shares as of today filing. To collect so huge amount of shares without moving a share price it took 3-4 months at least. But it still less than 50% of SO. Various institutions hold over 35M shares. Not too easy to take the company private if they do not agree. Probably Mr. QU will have to buy shares from them for higher than his bid price(or already did it).

 

Alex, he has those shares since IPO, he refiled this today for purpose of his offer.

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3 hours ago, Klothilde said:

Isn't it time we moved beyond CSIQ? I know it's hard to say goodbye but shouldn't we just forget about it? What are the chances this goes above 20 bucks again? 0.1% or less?

Oh, come on.  Let us grieve and cry and hope a little bit, if only for the remainder of the week.  I was looking forward to paying for my twins entire preschool bill when CSIQ was finally 20+ next year.  Alas, we were robbed of that opportunity.  But please let us grieve a bit longer.  It's only been 2 trading sessions!  

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8 minutes ago, Mark said:

Oh, come on.  Let us grieve and cry and hope a little bit, if only for the remainder of the week.  I was looking forward to paying for my twins entire preschool bill when CSIQ was finally 20+ next year.  Alas, we were robbed of that opportunity.  But please let us grieve a bit longer.  It's only been 2 trading sessions!  

The question is what to do next? FSLR is too expensive, rest is pretty much not investable. Looks like only renewable utilities, yieldcos are left. Having to see tax equity and wind as the target for Trumps, it will be hard to find a renewable agenda for the money. 

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17 minutes ago, dydo said:

The question is what to do next? FSLR is too expensive, rest is pretty much not investable. Looks like only renewable utilities, yieldcos are left. Having to see tax equity and wind as the target for Trumps, it will be hard to find a renewable agenda for the money. 

Mining sector (iron ore and stuff ;-)) is interesting at this moment: Vale, CLF, BHP, Rio etc... Also commodities and highly cyclical...but with huge margins (some of them)...

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49 minutes ago, dydo said:

I do not know all answers. All I know is what happened with Trina and JASO. Trina was actually a lot cleaner but behaved exactly the same as JASO did. Sometime in the near future, the stock will trade closer to 10% average below the offer price. It will dwell there and the offer will become binding and everyone will be excited to shake it off at 18.47. This will be the clean version of it.

Talking about what it can be or would be is no longer relative. What it is a glass ceiling of $18.47.  What will follow is trading. I think we are all in agreement, not a single soul will offer money for the shares. It is very unlikely that board will call the offer inadequate? So what will happen? There are exactly 4 months before Q4 is released. This board may accept the offer next week. 

Robert, with all due respect but, doesn't sound convincing. Can you please explain every of your claims:

1) "not a single soul will offer money for the shares"... Why not? Recent articles (especially in the last 10 days) in here https://www.pv-magazine.com/ show huge transition of every country to PV energy generation...before it was MW in the headlines, now it is mostly GW...

2) "It is very unlikely that board will call the offer inadequate?" Why not? Jaso upgraded offer from 6.8 to 7.55...

- If project sales happens, market will be able to assess company value change, not necessary to wait for Q4 ER...

- Institutional ownership at CSIQ is 42.13% versus Qu 23.5%. Are they all going to watch silently and make no move...?

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The business of CSIQ is a business of multiple layers which are complicated and spanning across many regions. Controlling environment like this one, especially one with large capacity in China, is impossible for external force or an outsider and requires approvals by Chinese governing bodies. At the onset of an idea you have enough red tape to stop you before you even begin contemplating a buyout. Chinese investors are very likely behind Qu. There will not be Chinese entity looking to interfere here. Everyone else is out. 

Institutions hold their pieces in the  company without ability to manage her. They are investors like you and I, not managers. 

JASO is paying $2 below original price. It took 2 years of stock molestation and poor forecasts. Like I said 4 months are left before Q4 is published. Imagine now along of the warning that already offered they say they did not close the sale in Q4 and are pushing it out and will advise as they become completed. What happens to the share price? In the meantime 3 more months are available. 

Biding offer is made and suddenly everyone is happy. 

Anyways I doubt board will take that long time is the essence if Qu is serious. It is about the offer and the glass ceiling. Those folks who paid over 9 for JASO would not repeat the same with CSIQ. We have miserable volume and price is unstable. Like I said there is a trading opportunity but better price I doubt It. I have been in this for 8 years, investing since 2009. Ask me how many buyouts or mergers in the industry I have seen. Zero. Solar City bought by Tesla because of Musk personal investment in it. 

Those are my thoughts anyways. The proposal can be voted down of course. 

 

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Thanks Robert for your answer, however, JASO offer at $9.69/ADS was made in June 2015, when solar market was still in a good shape, but started to descend into abyss, bit by bit after Q3/2015, reaching the bottom in Nov/2016 - Jun/2017...Since buyout offer wasn't binding, it didn't realized. CEO wasn't dumb, he saw market is deteriorating, so why to pay 9.69? And he made his second offer 6.6 at the bootom of the market (June-2017). Now solar sector is ascending again (ASP stabilization and global installations increase) and JASO adjusted price from 6.6 (solar market bottom) to 7.55 (in Novemebr 2017) reflecting solar market improvement... CSIQ first offer, unlike JASO, is made on the "ascending line" which is not interrupted or started to decline yet. I say this: There is three catalysts on the horizon: 201, GOP tax, CSIQ projects sales, and they all have to be clarified within just 1 month. There is a good chance for 2 out of three to be positive: "201" - Best if rejected or if implemented but leaves Canada & Singapore unaffected, 750 MW US projects sale by the end of December. It may happen... Who knows... and if happens, it means ascending line moved further up and buyout offer have to be adjusted accordingly. I will wait. I don't think "Special committy" will issue recommendation next week. CSIQ is a serious company and will try to do everything correct without hurry, not to be entangled into multiple class actions after going private.

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7 hours ago, dydo said:

The question is what to do next? FSLR is too expensive, rest is pretty much not investable. Looks like only renewable utilities, yieldcos are left. Having to see tax equity and wind as the target for Trumps, it will be hard to find a renewable agenda for the money. 

I remember that we discussed this when it was clear that we could be deprived of Trina and JASO as investment options. My view was that less options to diversify / swing trade investments in the industry was negative while you were happy about it since the remaining listed companies would gain value. Now only JKS will be left (for how long?) of CN4 and DQ and FSLR has already appreciated significantly from the 20’s.

For JKS they will compete with massively equity financed peers when they relist in China. How can they remain alone in a place where their kind is not appreciated.

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8 hours ago, MVA said:

Mining sector (iron ore and stuff ;-)) is interesting at this moment: Vale, CLF, BHP, Rio etc... Also commodities and highly cyclical...but with huge margins (some of them)...

I like NUE in that sector. It's been coiling for a decade. I have some biotech on the dip as well, while riding the current tech soar. With this new diversification philosophy, if I were to stay renewables concentrated I would like be in the utilities and raw materials part and choosing well established players, i.e. opposite ends of the value-chain. Silver (might be replace by copper) and polysilicon for c-Si solar, lithium for EV. Utilities that launch a lot of yieldco vehicles would be interesting. In the mid part (industry specialized manufacturing and project development) it will remain likely remain rocky for a while until that race is finished.

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It's been raised a couple times now but I didn't see anyone answering.  

If institutional ownership > CEO ownership, then isn't their a chance for a fight?

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10 hours ago, MVA said:

Mining sector (iron ore and stuff ;-)) is interesting at this moment: Vale, CLF, BHP, Rio etc... Also commodities and highly cyclical...but with huge margins (some of them)...

Lithium mining stocks have done very well and demand is forecast to quadruple in the next few years. FMC ALB are the 2 major players.

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9 hours ago, dydo said:

Ask me how many buyouts or mergers in the industry I have seen. Zero. Solar City bought by Tesla because of Musk personal investment in it. 

 

 

Hanwah bought SolarFun.

Edited by SCSolar

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24 minutes ago, SCSolar said:

Lithium mining stocks have done very well and demand is forecast to quadruple in the next few years. FMC ALB are the 2 major players.

I like ALB, some pricing points to $160 etc.

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