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dydo

Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

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6 minutes ago, Mark said:

I'll never understand how analysts get away with being 1) manipulative or 2) stupid.  He manages to scare people out with a low target while simultaneously saying the price is likely to go above 18.47.  I'd like to get in a room with all of these guys.  The stock is going down, but don't short it.  Because the stock is going to go up above the capped price I just said was on it.  I don't think its possible for him to contradict himself any further in such a short space of time.

Why consider a value to stay in this environment? Who can consider being an investor reading that? Analysts made sure those stocks were treated like crap for all those years and even now they serve their own agendas. 

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JP Morgan has been especially hard on renewables, hasn't it?  At least they were super pumping steel & iron ore stocks after Trump's win.  To the point of causing a > 40% drop in X due to their over pumping.

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This market has gone loony.  I guess I've just been way to late to this investing game.  

You have ridiculously crappy stocks that mention "AI" or "blockchain" and their share prices double & triple & more:  XNET, RIOT, OSTK, VERI.    

Meanwhile you have a company like CSIQ that is doing a great job at making the world a much better place... and their reward is to just be hated & ignored.

Edited by sunnypease
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Maybe JPMorgan has a client that wants the share price down further.  So they can make a competing offer.  Hmm I guess that doesn't make sense.

Edited by sunnypease

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17 minutes ago, dydo said:

I wrote an article on this, I thought it was not sincere and certainly the market reacted poorly to it.  The manipulation drove the stock all over the place, ending with two more offers. Last being $7.50. I hope Qu does not have a plan to demolish his own reputation, but God knows what is happening now. He needs to announce deals and sales etc, otherwise, it would manipulating accounting. Negative attitude could be enough. I would expect the board provides an answer sooner, a lot sooner. 

If management decides to delay projects sales, on purpose, (750 MW in US for instance) not to improve value/attractiveness of the company, especially after they announced it and many people got into this stock based on high expectations, is it a crime? Can they do it? Can it start SEC investigation? 

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5 minutes ago, MVA said:

If management decides to delay projects sales, on purpose, (750 MW in US for instance) not to improve value/attractiveness of the company, especially after they announced it and many people got into this stock based on high expectations, is it a crime? Can they do it? Can it start SEC investigation? 

Have a look at the company TOPS or DCIX to get a feel for how active the SEC is these days.

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29 minutes ago, MVA said:

If management decides to delay projects sales, on purpose, (750 MW in US for instance) not to improve value/attractiveness of the company, especially after they announced it and many people got into this stock based on high expectations, is it a crime? Can they do it? Can it start SEC investigation? 

If it is binding than it would be a cost. They won't do that, as there is no benefit to ruin deals because of the offer. It would be obviously bad practice and Qu could go to jail for manipulating activities of the company to downplay its value, yes that would be criminal and stupid because done wide in the open.

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2 hours ago, dydo said:

Is this guy some kind of idiot? Paul Coster from JPM, this is what he wrote

JPMorgan analyst Paul Coster downgraded Canadian Solar to Underweight from Neutral with an unchanged price target of $15. The stock is likely capped by the CEO's take-private offer of $18.47, Coster tells investors in a research note. The analyst expects the stock to underperform his coverage in the near-term, but says it is not a short. He believes, however, that a higher, competing takeover offer is likely.

Read more at:
https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=2653857

I think JPMorgan was misquoted by the fly, here is what they said according to Bloomberg:

“We do not believe a higher, competing offer is likely and there could still be risks associated with the deal itself.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-11/canadian-solar-chairman-offers-to-take-panel-maker-private

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5 minutes ago, Klothilde said:

I think JPMorgan was misquoted by the fly, here is what they said according to Bloomberg:

“We do not believe a higher, competing offer is likely and there could still be risks associated with the deal itself.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-11/canadian-solar-chairman-offers-to-take-panel-maker-private

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Dr. Qu mentioned in his offer "to acquire all of the outstanding common shares ("Common Shares") of the Company not already owned by me and my wife", meaning that he wants to buy ALL shares, and also owned by the Management and Directors of the Board? If so, isn’t it in the Board interest to sell at higher price? Or their shares have different status (preferred), and they will keep them? Does anybody knows ownership structure from this point of view?

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w.r.t. JP Morgan, there are 3 million shares short...how else do you get the price down so they can cover cheaper? create a little fud

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17 minutes ago, MVA said:

Dr. Qu mentioned in his offer "to acquire all of the outstanding common shares ("Common Shares") of the Company not already owned by me and my wife", meaning that he wants to buy ALL shares, and also owned by the Management and Directors of the Board? If so, isn’t it in the Board interest to sell at higher price? Or their shares have different status (preferred), and they will keep them? Does anybody knows ownership structure from this point of view?

I don't think the board really cares.  I'm sure they've been told they'll have positions on the new board and everyone knows they'll get more favorable treatment on another exchange, so I doubt they squabble over it knowing they'll get greater rewards on the re-listing when that times comes.

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Volume today is not impressive and price is quite stable... Having upside potential from current level only 3.5% (until buyout level 18.47), it is strange that holders don't sell and move on... Apparently shareholders are waiting for something better... hope is dying the last...

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What are the chances for better? We agree board is likely accept the bid. Nobody will counter, what is the point with the pronounced negative metrics of tax equity, 201 shrank margins due to poly aluminum etc. To get it higher. On few days more people will give in and as fear of less payout shares could drop. Sad. 

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1 hour ago, dydo said:

What are the chances for better? We agree board is likely accept the bid. Nobody will counter, what is the point with the pronounced negative metrics of tax equity, 201 shrank margins due to poly aluminum etc. To get it higher. On few days more people will give in and as fear of less payout shares could drop. Sad. 

I am studying now the chronology of JASO takeover and what is interesting is that on June 6/2017 second buyout offer was submitted at $6.8/ADS, after previous day closing price of $6.29. Then, was spectacular Q-2/2017 ER report and price jumped 7%, and then started to climb up to the level of $8.44/ADS on September 13/2017. Despite the fact that buyout offer was at $6.8/ADS supposedly capping the stock.

Eventually JASO management upgraded and accepted sale price from 6.8 to 7.55 on November 17/2017 = 11% UP or 18.2% up versus June 5/17 closing day price of 6.29.

Can the same buyout price reconsideration happen in CSIQ case, especially if Q4/Q1 ER will be spectacular…17.25 + 18% = 20.35? 

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26 minutes ago, MVA said:

Can the same buyout price reconsideration happen in CSIQ case, especially if Q4/Q1 ER will be spectacular…17.25 + 18% = 20.35? 

Maybe if it goes on that long.  Correct me if I'm wrong, but Q1 should be much better than Q4.  And they can push Q1 earnings out until June.  Qu will get something done before then, so that all that good news on the balance sheet may never even be seen by us.  I think that's his strategy, that we never actually see the balance sheet transformation.  I bet we don't even see any press releases about projects sales moving forward.  Ever.

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1 hour ago, dydo said:

What are the chances for better? We agree board is likely accept the bid. Nobody will counter, what is the point with the pronounced negative metrics of tax equity, 201 shrank margins due to poly aluminum etc. To get it higher. On few days more people will give in and as fear of less payout shares could drop. Sad. 

Robert, are you throwing in the towel? 

I plan to hold around 40%-50% until it either goes past $19 or buyout complete.  In the mean time, I will try to trade for $1 (buy in around $17.4 and sell around $18.4).  I bought back half what I sold yesterday this morning at $17.45.

I think the offer creates a ceiling, but also creates a floor price.  It might not go much above $18.47 but should not go much lower than $17.4 (thus the swing trade).  If someone come in with a better offer or the board comes up with higher offer, then it will go past $19.

Anyway, good luck to all CSIQ holders.  The offer might be a blessing creating a floor just in case the market (or solar) collapses.

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6 minutes ago, Mark said:

Maybe if it goes on that long.  Correct me if I'm wrong, but Q1 should be much better than Q4.  And they can push Q1 earnings out until June.  Qu will get something done before then, so that all that good news on the balance sheet may never even be seen by us.  I think that's his strategy, that we never actually see the balance sheet transformation.  I bet we don't even see any press releases about projects sales moving forward.  Ever.

Information about CSIQ projects sales often comes from other sources long before official Press Release... One way or another we will know about those sales without delay. Q4 ER is usually March-15, Q1 ER - is always in beginning of May... Long delays will be manipulation...

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1 minute ago, MVA said:

Information about CSIQ projects sales often comes from other sources long before official Press Release... One way or another we will know about those sales without delay. Q4 ER is usually March-15, Q1 ER - is always in beginning of May... Long delays will be manipulation...

Right, I should have been more clear.  I meant the company wouldn't put out press.  But thanks to Robert's digging and others too, I found out about the recent project sales on industry sites.  No thanks to CSIQ. All starts to make sense... :( . 

Q1 this year they reported on June 6th.

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