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dydo

Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

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Hey GE Power... don't you wanna go from out of the race to top of the class again? Look in the sofa cushions and come up with a better offer. 

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4 hours ago, pg6solar said:

How many were adding Trina last year at about this time for a $2 (over 20%) gain that materialized in about 4 months? 

 

I traded Trina several times for small 3-7% gains prior to taking my final position for a 15% gain.  I might do that for CSIQ if it pulls back to 10% from offer. I can see a need to offer more like $20 for the sale to close but I will not buy based on that assumption.

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19 minutes ago, Mark said:

Hey GE Power... don't you wanna go from out of the race to top of the class again? Look in the sofa cushions and come up with a better offer. 

Maybe someone told Qu he cannot talk at ccs anymore? So he got pissed and wants his company.

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You guys use here all day two examples: Trina & Jaso, but Canadian is different situation. Neither Trina nor JASO expected such a huge pay check and increase in book value at the time of buyout offer. With Canadian Solar it is too obvious, and market sees it. And all today's articles about stingy price offer proves  my point. I can hardly believe that not a single Big scale Speculator will try to play this HUGE discrepancy… 18.47 versus 24-26… I am sure there will be competitive higher offer from somebody else.

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JASO and TSL were just big in China. CSIQ is big globally and has US business. Buying the stock at $22 per share by another company would still be a low offer but it would get Qu out of the picture as a shareholder.  Is this possible? An oil company could make an easy bet. Chinese Sinopec could by CSIQ overnight.

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2 minutes ago, dydo said:

JASO and TSL were just big in China. CSIQ is big globally and has US business. Buying the stock at $22 per share by another company would still be a low offer but it would get Qu out of the picture as a shareholder.  Is this possible? An oil company could make an easy bet. Chinese Sinopec could by CSIQ overnight.

Exactly Robert, that's my point. I do not believe for a second that American sharks let this golden fish swim back to China sea at such a low ransom :-)

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Just now, MVA said:

Exactly Robert, that's my point. I do not believe for a second that American sharks let this golden fish swim back to China sea at such a low ransom :-)

I am afraid that American sharks are mostly dumb. The offer overall is low, but no pressure has been placed on the shares. In fact, the stock has sold off at the low at the end of the day, while SPWR to lose-lose got 11% boost.

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“One answer is Shawn Qu becomes a much richer man,” said Gordon Johnson, an analyst at Axiom Capital Management. “If I simply delist from the U.S. stock exchange and relist on the Chinese stock exchange, the value of my stock will probably increase substantially.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-11/canadian-solar-chairman-offers-to-take-panel-maker-private

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3 minutes ago, dydo said:

“One answer is Shawn Qu becomes a much richer man,” said Gordon Johnson, an analyst at Axiom Capital Management. “If I simply delist from the U.S. stock exchange and relist on the Chinese stock exchange, the value of my stock will probably increase substantially.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-11/canadian-solar-chairman-offers-to-take-panel-maker-private

So, can a simple shareholder refuse to sell his shares at offered price and keep them as a private investor?

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7 minutes ago, MVA said:

So, can a simple shareholder refuse to sell his shares at offered price and keep them as a private investor?

No, the majority will rule. If agreed to sell, all will be paid cash per share. I think analysts kid themselves about this transaction. Qu will push the envelope forward quick. I cannot believe all this value will go down for 2/3 of the price. Unless, he will make things look bad.

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CSIQ needs an activist shareholder, to buy shares on the market and try to influence the board. CSIQ is not an ADS, it is actual stock and company is incorporated in Canada. Indeed we are looking at the different business structure here. Qu apparently received offers in the past.  If someone offered a better price, I wonder if he would go for it? He said no now, but a good deal could make for him if he secured the job for some time. I think it is worth to hold the shares. just to see the end of it.

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Now the market, people know the company is for sale. Offering shareholders $3 more or $180M in equity does not mean a lot to few companies out there. Debts will be lowered effectively. Transactions of plant sales will be delivered. This can still get quite interesting.

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5 minutes ago, dydo said:

Now the market, people know the company is for sale. Offering shareholders $3 more or $180M in equity does not mean a lot to few companies out there. Debts will be lowered effectively. Transactions of plant sales will be delivered. This can still get quite interesting.

Exactly!!! On top of that if "201 stupidity" ends in favor of Canadian solar through total rejection of the bill by POTUS or just leaving Canada and Singapore unaffected, one more huge plus...

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CSIQ Earnings Estimates for the next period were substantially increased today by Analysts:             

Q-4/2017 ($1.04/share, UP from 1.03),

year 2017 ($1.64/share, UP from 1.63) and

2018 ($1.78/share, UP from 1.63)...

And these also in mega stark contrast to low buyout offer... Unbelievable...

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CSIQ/analysts?p=CSIQ

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JA Solar - first buyout offer was made on June 5/2015 at $9.69/share, does anybody here remember why it took more than 2 years to finalize it?

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JPM downgraded CSIQ to $15. Now analysts are working for Qu.  The reason equity is trading above the targeted price. So only now, three months in, he decided to issue an update to show that 18.47 is a value price. 

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Is this guy some kind of idiot? Paul Coster from JPM, this is what he wrote

JPMorgan analyst Paul Coster downgraded Canadian Solar to Underweight from Neutral with an unchanged price target of $15. The stock is likely capped by the CEO's take-private offer of $18.47, Coster tells investors in a research note. The analyst expects the stock to underperform his coverage in the near-term, but says it is not a short. He believes, however, that a higher, competing takeover offer is likely.

Read more at:
https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=2653857

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38 minutes ago, MVA said:

JA Solar - first buyout offer was made on June 5/2015 at $9.69/share, does anybody here remember why it took more than 2 years to finalize it?

I wrote an article on this, I thought it was not sincere and certainly the market reacted poorly to it.  The manipulation drove the stock all over the place, ending with two more offers. Last being $7.50. I hope Qu does not have a plan to demolish his own reputation, but God knows what is happening now. He needs to announce deals and sales etc, otherwise, it would manipulating accounting. Negative attitude could be enough. I would expect the board provides an answer sooner, a lot sooner. 

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7 minutes ago, dydo said:

Is this guy some kind of idiot? Paul Coster from JPM, this is what he wrote

 

I'll never understand how analysts get away with being 1) manipulative or 2) stupid.  He manages to scare people out with a low target while simultaneously saying the price is likely to go above 18.47.  I'd like to get in a room with all of these guys.  The stock is going down, but don't short it.  Because the stock is going to go up above the capped price I just said was on it.  I don't think its possible for him to contradict himself any further in such a short space of time.

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