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dydo

Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

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23 hours ago, SCSolar said:

Two years later, much to our surprise, the developing country market is expected to reach 70GW and 67% of the total market share in 2018. The mature developed country market is more or less the same 34GW as two years ago, but now only represents 33% of the total market share.

Let's hope that translates to a pleasant surprise for earnings as well....

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4 minutes ago, Mark said:

Isn't this a parent of SunPower buying CSIQ's modules? I know SPWR is off the project grid, but one would think the parent would buy still from it. 

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If only the market had listened to Costner/JP Morgan when they said FSLR was a buying opportunity on the dip and headed back to $79.  This CSIQ go private has me exhausted... as does FSLR... as does the entire market, really.  Nobody's buying.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3399190-canadian-solar-minus-3-percent-j-p-morgan-cuts-sell-valuation

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From the JP Morgan comments yesterday... 

Aside from Canadian Solar, Coster said he does not recognize any imminent material cutbacks in production plans in the sector, as solar companies are  lapping strong competition around the world, he said.

I've read the last part of that several times.  What's he mean "solar companies are lapping strong competition around the world"?  I'm hung up on "lapping", which I take to mean running laps around, beating up, destroying... etc.  Does he simply mean that the Tier 1s are beating the competition presented by lower Tier price reductions?  

https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/18/10/12542210/with-a-take-private-deal-still-in-play-jpmorgan-downgra

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Yes. I agree it’s an interesting comment. Just from personal observation, the market seems to be transitioning away from subsidies, which will distinguish between well managed and mismanaged companies. The JinkoSolar, Canadian Solars, Longi, First Solar seen well positioned for the future. I may have missed several companies, but just wanted to make a point.

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1 hour ago, Mark said:

That looks close to their asset cost for the sale once you take out the power revenues from 2 years. That would be in line with very low single digit margins that had been suggested for US assets.

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150MW California project with 180MW of storage

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/largest-california-solar-plus-storage-123000022.html

 

Canadian Solar Inc. ("Canadian Solar") (CSIQ), today announced its wholly owned subsidiary Recurrent Energy LLC ("Recurrent Energy") has signed two 15-year power purchase agreements ("PPA") with Silicon Valley Clean Energy and Monterey Bay Community Power for a 150 megawatt ("MWac") solar power system with 180 megawatt-hours ("MWh") of battery storage. This joint procurement effort represents the largest contracted solar-plus-storage project in California to date.

 

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On 9/24/2018 at 8:40 AM, dydo said:

Canadian Solar Unveils BiHiKu, New 400+ Watt Poly Bifacial Solar Module, and HiDM, High Efficiency Black Shingled Module, at Solar Power International

GUELPH, Ontario, Sept. 24, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- Canadian Solar Inc. (the "Company", or "Canadian Solar") (CSIQ), one of the world's largest solar power companies, today unveiled our proprietary P4-based BiHiKu module, combining three industry leading solar PV technologies in one new 400+ Watt module: the latest black silicon, poly PERC, and bifacial cell technologies. Merging these technologies enables Canadian Solar to produce the BiHiKu module, a HiKumodule with bifaciality up to 75 percent.

This new poly solar module generates 400 Watts or more on the front, plus up to 30 percent additional power generation from the back side, dramatically increasing system yield and reducing the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE). The Company believes that BiHiKu is the first poly bifacial module exceeding 400+ Watt nominal front side power.

BiHiKu is perfect for large commercial or utility-scale solar installations, particularly where a high reflection ground or surface under the module creates high albedo, contributing to high back side yield. The product will be available in 2019 and pre-production orders are being accepted now.

In addition, Canadian Solar is introducing to the North America market the HiDM high density module, a shingled solar module with unique IP-granted design features and up to 19.9% module efficiency. The 60-cell sized mono PERC HiDM, up to 330 Watt, is an aesthetically pleasing all-black module perfect for residential rooftops. The 72-cell sized mono PERC HiDM, up to 410 Watt, is a highly efficient black module for commercial applications.

"As Canadian Solar continues on the forefront of solar module innovation, we are proud to introduce BiHiKu and HiDM as the next steps in maximizing the lifetime value of your solar assets," said Dr. Shawn Qu, chairman and chief executive officer of Canadian Solar. "Solar systems using BiHiKu will be able to break away from the pack and score high on low LCOE, making many seemingly impossible low PPA solar projects possible."

Canadian Solar's booth #1604 at Solar Power International (Anaheim, CA USA) honors the fact that Canada is the birthplace of hockey. Donning hockey jerseys, Canadian Solar staff will be talking about BiHiKu and HiDM as Canadian Solar's breakaway products, and showcasing the firm's solar hat trick of modules, inverters, and services.

Didn't SPWR say they patented shingled module design? 

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On 8/15/2018 at 6:59 AM, dydo said:

In my personal condition, I would not like to see it. I need the money elsewhere perhaps beyond the end of the year before it is freed. By December it would be a full year, this indicates some form of update, but usually, a year lapse indicates nothing is moving things could be off. Just so you know I will only buy CSIQ in this situation. Not interested paying $50 per share for FSLR when last time I paid was $43 and I see it at $30 before. JKS, not interested in all. I do not trust their accounting. 

Wow, FSLR went below $40, recently JKS turned to dirt. I recommend SGMO for about 43% in December when all is right. If streak continues in February maybe $30. Again very risky and could lose around 20% to 30% on a failure. 

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The way I understood today's PR, CSIQ is nowhere close to going private and more importantly IMHO not at $18.47 if it ever happens. Let's see how long it will take for CSIQ to JKS PPS gap to be significantly eroded.

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18 minutes ago, pg6solar said:

The way I understood today's PR, CSIQ is nowhere close to going private and more importantly IMHO not at $18.47 if it ever happens. Let's see how long it will take for CSIQ to JKS PPS gap to be significantly eroded.

The PR is bad.

http://investors.canadiansolar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/update-going-private-proposal

They declined the offer because they do not think he has financing to go through with it because of market changes? Nothing about the offer price being rejected due to being insufficient?

With this PR, the bottom support has been removed. I would expect significant downward pressure. 

 

 

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On 8/15/2018 at 6:59 AM, dydo said:

In my personal condition, I would not like to see it. I need the money elsewhere perhaps beyond the end of the year before it is freed. By December it would be a full year, this indicates some form of update, but usually, a year lapse indicates nothing is moving things could be off.

and they are off. PR says Qu never bother to show the evidence of money. Since he is board he allowed a death sentence on a stock to be executed with it. So his plan is floor the stock and then buy the corpse? 

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Just now, dydo said:

and they are off. PR says Qu never bother to show the evidence of money. Since he is board he allowed a death sentence on a stock to be executed with it. So his plan is floor the stock and then buy the corpse? 

I had a respect for Qu, thought he was genuine. On the other hand, I did not have enough of it to hold to the stock. Disappointed with the entire process. An immediate feeling I am somewhat interested in knowing they are to be around in having the company remain public in the US. Now it is a matter of finding a bottom. 

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We all know that Qu is behind this move, don't we?  He needed a way of lowering his bid (greed) without appearing too much like an a-hole and this move gives it to him.  Now he can say "I tried hard but the banks and the board didn't let me".  Get ready to hand over your shares for single digits guys and gals.

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8 minutes ago, pg6solar said:

The question is, why its not falling (yet)? Is it because CN solars risk on again - both DQ and JKS up around 33-35% from very recent lows?

It is going up, perhaps only for the moment

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Well, this is a bummer.

I had gotten my mother into CSIQ.. too early after the take private announcement... so paid too much.  

Hopefully it drops like a rock now and can be bought back on the cheap.

Will anyone here be buying and what price is considered good now?  

Are we assuming that all Chinese solars will be either near zero or losing money now?

Thanks-

Matt

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Between the China news and the 500 MW California news Friday and Qu's mess, its hard to know what to do this morning.  

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6 minutes ago, Mark said:

Between the China news and the 500 MW California news Friday and Qu's mess, its hard to know what to do this morning.  

I can clearly see what I *should have* done.  Should have started at least a half position on JKS when people here were thinking it's a good buy.

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1 hour ago, sunnypease said:

I can clearly see what I *should have* done.  Should have started at least a half position on JKS when people here were thinking it's a good buy.

I loaded up between 7 and 9 on JKS. That averaged me down from the initial buy around $12. I am( for now ) in the black.

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Good job.  I'm going to wait & see how the day unfolds.  Too many news chasing momo algos out there to feel totally confident.  Need to go over this announcement as well.  Plus we have the earnings coming up, which might temper the  rally, though the reason seems more real than solar panels on the Great US Mexican wall!

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5 minutes ago, SolarRoof said:

It said Qu is still interested in obtaining the co - he'll probably come back with a 15.48 offer and proof of financing...

Yeah, thinking he'll pull some crap like that as well.  Really thought this clown was different.

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1 hour ago, sunnypease said:

Good job.  I'm going to wait & see how the day unfolds.  Too many news chasing momo algos out there to feel totally confident.  Need to go over this announcement as well.  Plus we have the earnings coming up, which might temper the  rally, though the reason seems more real than solar panels on the Great US Mexican wall!

Sold my CSIQ from my retirement account that was holding for the buyout. I took the loss. My trading account is break even right now. I shall wait to see what the ER brings for guidance.

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Just now, SolarRoof said:

It said Qu is still interested in obtaining the co - he'll probably come back with a 15.48 offer and proof of financing...

So, why then to dissolve the Committee? He simply could come with lower offer now... while PV market is still depressed. Things change quickly, tomorrow PV market may jump up again, and then how to justify lower offer?  JASO, for instance, simply reduced previous offer... The new offer (if any) will start the whole process over again: Forming Committee, hiring legal advisers, etc.. And all this show paid with shareholders money... People may get really frustrated... Class action will follow and SEC investigation.

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