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Bankrupt Solar-LDK, Suntech, SunEdison

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I guess SUNE got cut by UBS to $11 as a falling knife. In May they recommended to $30. Do not get reverse psychology on this one.

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I hope that all trading positions opened on SUNE have been closed by members of the forum. I fear that the company is in serious trouble reading some dirt allover the internet.

It looks like the Adani deal has been cancelled and I suspect that many partners will be pulling from SUNE negotiations. What is going to be interesting if Vivint transaction gets green light. There is no money for it. Anyone who has been engaged into SUNE buying spree, could be counting days to deal conclusion as liquidity could be a huge problem.

Edited by odyd
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Hopefully the fallout is contained to SUNE only, if SUNE does "go under" ...

I think SUNE has been a baby of hedge funds, the same ones, which shorted other solar stocks to create an attraction to SUNE stock. If anything, projects, relationships and opportunities will be piling up for other companies, this will be good. As I mentioned in my SA articles, this is not a coincidence, someone has turn the generator off and the party goers with big pockets have left $20 ago, now you have speculators, naive and desperate trying to coin a gain either direction who do not get the memo or have ignored it.  Those who needed to make money by control of SUNE had left SUNE in my opinion.

I think there are party hats being handed out at FSLR and SPWR and I am sure CN3 execs are enjoying the view. If there is tremors there are short-lived.

To contrary I think a lot of people will be embracing strong solar companies. SOLs and YGEs will be further pushed toward the cliff, others will be elevated.

For the most part of membership of this forum, we are 6-0 versus general public, engaged in solar. Avoided GTAT and SUNE. Suntech and LDK, YGE and SOL before so. I was rescued from YGE in 2012, so I am not only a benefactor but also beneficiary.

Edited by odyd
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...For the most part of membership of this forum, we are 6-0 versus general public, engaged in solar. Avoided GTAT and SUNE. Suntech and LDK, YGE and SOL before so. I was rescued from YGE in 2012, so I am not only a benefactor but also beneficiary.

I'm not so sure about the 6-0.  As to YGE: yes, you were invested in it for the long run an we convinced you that it is a POS.  But I still remember the SOL hype here that was so rampant and ended up costing many folks an arm and a leg.  Same with CSIQ, where hopes on an imminent yieldco launch with massive appreciation were stirred.

But enough of that and take the above as my humble opinion only please.

I have a question on the impact of the SUNE collapse on general yieldco valuations in the market.  Is the yieldco era over, i.e. does a yieldco instrument still bear any potential for shareholder value?  CSIQ claimed they will still move ahead with a public offering, but does it make sense and will it happen?  How bout JKS with their relatively risky china project portfolio (FIT payment uncertainty) - how will the SUNE collapse affect them?

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Broomhilda, just to keep things a bit in perspective when you talk of the past. 3 year chart of the majors which reflects nearly the time from cyclical low to high, FSLR in the middle together with TSL and JASO is worst JKS and CSIQ the leaders head to head. JASO last, that was your baby as well for a long time, right. So don't come around now and act like you are the smartest one here when your achievement in the current cycle is just being close to flat on your bets which is quite a lousy outcome. 

 

When you talk about stock prices, SOL it is near at the point where it started in spring 2013, so not much worse than JASO and FSLR to my amazement. So you could also talk about a JASO and FSLR fiasco? In general I think the board has done well in exchanging information. Because the longer time members should have been able to make decent profit over that time period.

hmm, I attached charts here which don't seem to work and are gone, you can check them out yourself then...

Edited by Makan
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I think right now YieldCo IPO market is dead in US and in China. So planned IPOs will not happen end of 2015 or beginning of 2016. Over time I assume it will go through similar development like ABS, useful vehicle in principle, but abused by some, who put junk in it like GLBL. But this will take time, maybe we start to see now as YieldCo like CAFD, NYLP NEP, HASI and so on have been a bit more stable recently. SUNE's problem is now they have started construction on I think 2 GW but with uncertain finances, that could break their neck similar to SAG Solarstrom (you are German, surely you will know this case). CSIQ similar, they have to finish 1.2 GW in US by end of 2016 and have started half of them and need to get finance for that now or else their 265m investment for Recurrent is in the drain. That cost 2 bln. That is their risk now, however, they can raise some from remaining canadian project sales and have better balance sheet, so they have a chance manage the situation while they postpone Japan and other projects. JKS don't know, maybe IPO next year sometime only when project CF situation has improved by then.

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Makan, I'm the first to admit my mistakes.  FSLR has met my expectations in tech and fundamentals development but the share price hasn't reflected the progress yet imo.  And JASO has disappointed me both with tech progression and share price development.  Means I am human, I make mistakes, and I'm not infallible.

Claiming 6-0, on the other hand, is claiming that you didn't make mistakes and that you are infallible.  And that is a far stretch imho.  Just taking into account the SOL fiasco the score should be clearly 5-1, and if you include the CSIQ mishap it goes down to 4-2.

Does SuperSOL still ring a bell around here?

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Does SuperSOL still ring a bell around here?

As far as I know they are not seen as relevant here anymore. They seem to change their strategy every quarter, now scaling down on module business and concentrating on projects in Romania and Bulgaria (BoS probably includes security people as well, as they have to be careful that the modules don't get stolen there from the racks) and doing wafers. Where is the synergies with that combination? I don't know.

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For the most part of membership of this forum, we are 6-0 versus general public, engaged in solar. Avoided GTAT and SUNE. Suntech and LDK, YGE and SOL before so. I was rescued from YGE in 2012, so I am not only a benefactor but also beneficiary.

Sorry. Can not agree on all. GTAT was pumped here (not by you, but it was) almost up to its collapse. Also SOL was hugely followed by most as late as Q3 of 2013.  And even CSIQ was pumped in low $30s (after its ID min-collapse in May) as an amazing value as late as early June. 

Edited by pg6solar

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Sorry. Can not agree on all. GTAT was pumped here (not by you, but it was) almost up to its collapse. Also SOL was hugely followed by most as late as Q3 of 2013.  And even CSIQ was pumped in low $30s (after its ID min-collapse in May) as an amazing value as late as early June. 

What is wrong with CSIQ that you including this in the score? CSIQ is the best company in the sector for two years and will be there financially for 2016

SOL was pumped by Forest who is the common factor of The contrarian Investor today and he was so unbearable he was kicked out of here. The collective of the forum was not mesmerized by failure of the company as Contrarian was by GTAT. I am talking about companies who have failed investors or about to fail them.

If you are placing CSIQ in the same criteria with Suntech and LDK, that I doubt I have anything to share with you. If you are poking people for hoping for CSIQ to turn and not doing so recently is this fair?

JASO and FSLR are the two worst performing stocks in solar universe. Broomhilda, you have sensibility of a bull in a China shop (how appropriate) to bring those two in any category. You offered nothing to convince me of anything. There is no "we" when you are concerned.

 

 

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The collective of this forum was able to show recently their preferences. The collective forum had ability to evolve in time and pick winning, meaning gaining value companies. 

This is opposite to holding a position in a company for last 5 years like FSLR or JASO. The composition of this forum has members like that but there was no time in the history of the forum JA Solar was picked as the top holding. CSIQ was and then collective evolved. Nobody cried foul when criticism of CSIQ was published by me and others. Forest would rip your throat for saying bad things about SOL. If some people cannot appreciate this, perhaps they are driven by agendas, which are personal and do not reflect appreciation for a collective value or understand what collective value is.

Edited by odyd

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Sorry. Can not agree on all. GTAT was pumped here (not by you, but it was) almost up to its collapse. Also SOL was hugely followed by most as late as Q3 of 2013.  And even CSIQ was pumped in low $30s (after its ID min-collapse in May) as an amazing value as late as early June. 

The board isn't unanimous, but I think the 6 - 0 is a fair description of the general consensus here. SOL may be an exception, but they were dropped expediently when the poly plant duplicity came to light, which was prudent and I argue a mark for the win column. 

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Sounds to me when someone reported they shutdown a factory, this was not a lie but a fact, and now they are saying lower utilization is behind cutting margin in half.

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That result is not going to help them fund that big notes payment that is due in October. I wish those who could not manage it (they ample debt supply) would go under instead of find new support. We know the fate of Solyndra, LDK and STP. Let's see what happens to YGE and SUNE.

 

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explo, any thoughts on the "cash" news?  what does it mean exactly?  Not sure what "cash is coming" means.  Thank you if you respond!

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explo, any thoughts on the "cash" news?  what does it mean exactly?  Not sure what "cash is coming" means.  Thank you if you respond!

I guess they mean that lately its been a spree of raising equity and debt to fund investment cash out flow and that going forward cash flow from operations will improve and investment cash outflow will calm down. This would slow down the fast growth of their debt mountain lately. It's not uncommon that investors go from "show me growth" to "show med the money" and that's seem to be the SUNE managements impression.

 

 

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I guess they mean that lately its been a spree of raising equity and debt to fund investment cash out flow and that going forward cash flow from operations will improve and investment cash outflow will calm down. This would slow down the fast growth of their debt mountain lately. It's not uncommon that investors go from "show me growth" to "show med the money" and that's seem to be the SUNE managements impression.

 

 

certainly agree that investors want to see some profits and sooner than later.  I am not as clear as to how to judge cash flow.  But whatever the case, it seems that people here too have been slamming the company for a lack of cash flow.  It seems that the purchase of Vivint was the straw that sent hedge funds running, even Greenlight.  And now Chatila says that cash will flow a year earlier than expected . . . .  whiplash a bit.

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More (updates) on how a Yingli rival helps Yingli to boost its cash flow as it scrambles to avoid default: http://www.pv-tech.org/news/chinese_manufacturing_rivals_come_to_yingli_greens_aid

Really interesting that one of their big rivals help them to survive.

Geograpically speaking it might be JA since they have several different factories in Hebei (Yingli's base in BJ area) covering whole wafer-cell-module chain. This could reduce logistics costs of tolling arrangements. Most others have factories in provinces around Shanghai.

 

 

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And it's not only the medium term notes maturity reckoning around the corner. That history of overspending on now old and likely not properly upgraded equipment is now surfacing as a long due issue:

However, although the module tolling would potentially keep utilisation rates high, management noted it would be forced to undertake a significant impairment charge study, using independent third parties on its large manufacturing assets. 

This would lead to significant impairment charges on such long-lived assets that would have a serious material and adverse effect on the company.

 

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Wow they got a 20% jump on that. It was probably not a real win, but something pushed by Hebei goverment.

We have partnered with Yingli for these power plants because, as one of the world's leading solar panel manufacturers, Yingli's products meet CFC's demanding product quality requirements," commented Mr. Chen Jiguang of CFC Construction.

A bit stiff?

YGE has now joined the trading craziness of the likes of LDK where traders go "still not completely dead? - the euphoria of life just before death - buy buy buy before we die".

 

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Wow they got a 20% jump on that. It was probably not a real win, but something pushed by Hebei goverment.

We have partnered with Yingli for these power plants because, as one of the world's leading solar panel manufacturers, Yingli's products meet CFC's demanding product quality requirements," commented Mr. Chen Jiguang of CFC Construction.

A bit stiff?

YGE has now joined the trading craziness of the likes of LDK where traders go "still not completely dead? - the euphoria of life just before death - buy buy buy before we die".

 

Half of the gain already lost. Toxic stock.

 

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