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Bankrupt Solar-LDK, Suntech, SunEdison

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And all on forum should regret no trading YGE?

I thought you like others here avoided casino playing fairly doomed names?

There's a lot of money too make and lose by betting hard on Red and it's always easy to see whether it was a profitable bet or not in retrospect.

My strategy to preserve capital is to take as much risk out of the equation as possible.

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There was more than 50% drop from Friday's close till Tuesday's open (including a "tiny" 12% drop on Monday). I do not play Casino (I know only what they look like from the outside). But this one huge down, then quick partial recovery was a given. Same happened to STP (and I think LDK), but AFTER both defaulted. YGE is not defaulting tomorrow was my thinking, and even though I'm a terrible trader, I wanted "in". My better half was standing behind me with a small hammer (with full intentions of using it) and since I still need my fingers to type, I gave up. Not a joke. Serious story. 

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What was special was that it dropped on no news, just that the company stated the obvious (we have debt, debt is risk) in annual filing and some news outlets stated that they stated this. But it's years since I decided to never touch this stock with a ten foot pole. If I think the stock is worth $0 and it's trading at $0.80 I won't buy just because it traded much higher recently and nothing fundamentally had changed. What I see is market starting to align with my view of $0 value. Who am I to say if that continuous or they will take it in the opposite direction of what I think makes sense first. I can just stick to my view that price is higher than value and therefore the price offered is not attractive to me.

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Trading and investing are two separate issues. There were those looking at it recently at $2 for 10% gain (correctly so as it did gain that first, then started falling). Traders "trade" s..t, literally - IMO YGE is not on that "deep" level yet. You can clearly see it would have been a hell of a trade, there's no questions about it. 

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Yes trading is trading. I trade too, but not everything. Yes in retrospect I can perfectly see which trades were great and which were not.

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Yes in retrospect I can perfectly see which trades were great and which were not.

 

I said so here before hand, not after. I do not recall saying that type of staff here ever before as I never regretted not being in JASO trade in early 2013 because, unlike in this case with YGE,  I never saw it coming (I doubt that even those who were in it expected a double in two days). I understood the risk and was willing to loose it all (not a small amount, mind you, hence the "hammer") and stated so as well. 

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Class action lawsuits coming. Nothing better than a lawyers chasing companies. Wonder what this will do to perception. There is a lot of pressure on China's market mongering fear as mentioned yesterday on the forum.

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Class action lawsuits coming. Nothing better than a lawyers chasing companies. Wonder what this will do to perception. There is a lot of pressure on China's market mongering fear as mentioned yesterday on the forum.

 

Yes, they've really rolled in the last couple of days. The company responded today: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/yingli-green-energy-responds-class-104200102.html

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I see too much enthusiasm in YGE today. (good for us, this adds to raise positivism)
Revenue raises, OK.. but they are still loosing money in every panel they sell,
and depleting cash at fast rate..
Their debt is huge, and their equipment is getting old and loosing efficiency respect their peers,
For sure they already need upgrade it's over 4GW capacity to maintain competitiveness..
can they?
YGE aims come back in black in 2nd half..
I guess they already crossed the no return line..
what do you think ?
 

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Longest sentence I have seen in awhile:

 

Our ability to continue as a going concern is dependent upon our continued operations, which in turn is dependent upon our ability to meet our financial requirements, raise additional capital, and the success of our future operations, which in turn are subject to various risks discussed herein including, among others, risks relating to economic conditions in our target markets as well as the supply and prices of PV modules in the market, our ability to obtain additional capital or other funding to meet our payment obligations under our debt instruments, our ability to renew our short-term borrowings when they mature, our ability to restructure some of our existing debts if needed, the ability of guarantors of our debt to maintain their financial condition, and our ability to comply with all covenants of our loan agreements or obtain waivers if needed

Read more: Yingli Green Energy Q1 Earnings Preview (NYSE: YGE) - 24/7 Wall St. http://247wallst.com/energy-business/2015/06/04/what-to-expect-from-yingli-earnings/#ixzz3cDJRERre 
 

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I see too much enthusiasm in YGE today. (good for us, this adds to raise positivism)
Revenue raises, OK.. but they are still loosing money in every panel they sell,
and depleting cash at fast rate..
Their debt is huge, and their equipment is getting old and loosing efficiency respect their peers,
For sure they already need upgrade it's over 4GW capacity to maintain competitiveness..
can they?
YGE aims come back in black in 2nd half..
I guess they already crossed the no return line..
what do you think ?
 

 

 

It's a good questions. I think this like LDK and STP is becoming a stock of hope now. Any bright light will make it jump despite not changing where it is heading. So when they say (again, right?) that they might deliver a profitable quarter this year it does not mean that they are on track to become profitable on a annual basis or it does not consider what that implies (falling technologically behind and get in trouble later, selling all assets built instead of retaining value). There's no rush to get in here in my view, since it will be years until it looks like things are stabilized and recovering and expansive focus can comeback unless they dilute and then with the stock here it will be much more costly than when CSIQ did build and sell and secondaries to build their BS back to strength and it was never in as bad shape as YGE's is.

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Something is going on here.  They keep losing money.  And keep taking the other kids' lunches in project procurement.  

 

Another 300 MW plus in South Africa. SA!  Not exactly a huge nation.  Not small but not huge.  

 

Are they ahead of SPWR and JKS in SA now?

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Guest BIPV Investor

 

No clue where the money is coming from, but the price action in SUNE shows that the market likes aggressive growth. It has been some time since the other names have announced sizable development deals. They seem mostly content to announce module sales agreements which the market wholeheartedly does not care about.

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No clue where the money is coming from, but the price action in SUNE shows that the market likes aggressive growth. It has been some time since the other names have announced sizable development deals. They seem mostly content to announce module sales agreements which the market wholeheartedly does not care about.

I guess I was not that observant as the money comes from private placements, which count at $700M before new terra opened. I agree market loves SUNE. I hope market will show some love to SPWR and FSLR soon, but I doubt with such intensity. I hope to get $35 for SPWR shares.

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Hey everybody look the circus is back in town.

Wolfe Research's Gordon Johnson Believes Three News Items Out of SunEdison on Tuesday 'underpin SUNE's position as a global leader in renewable project development'

6/17/15, 6:13 AM

Johnson highlights SunEdison suggested proceeds from private placement, "impending TerraForm Global IPO" will keep co. from needing to tap capital markets.

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Yes. This asset consolidation seems like a good deal for them, since they don't have much money to invest in new manufacturing assets. This way they might avoid falling too much behind.

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I guess I was not that observant as the money comes from private placements, which count at $700M before new terra opened. I agree market loves SUNE. I hope market will show some love to SPWR and FSLR soon, but I doubt with such intensity. I hope to get $35 for SPWR shares.

 

Market likes aggressive growth LDK style. The problem is not so much the lack of profits, but the risk of spending huge amounts of money you don't have. You better spend it perfectly. LDK didn't and went BK a while later. US got their own LDK darling for awhile now. I'd just hate to see what happens to the sector if this one blows up. Remember this is aggressive MEMC that almost blew up and bought a project developer life-line that they are about to mess up now.

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TerraForm Global $165M CAFD on 988MW,

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/2015/06/17/india-approves-100gw-solar-target-sunedison-trina-rush-in/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo

Johnson is on the other end of the rainbow now.

CSIQs $60M need more explanation as we are seeing trains departing from the station at this rate. So far 8P3 made nothing to the jv, if CSIQ has a petty CAFD I will be rather upset. All those Japanese plants suppose to print money, sure they could cost more even if they are not build, but still.

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TERP selling $500M shares.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/terraform-power-announces-public-offering-200100480.html

Just different ball game altogether investing in those companies.

 

Basically they are just doing what they are here for. Accumulating MWs through collecting capital. That is called an operating platform. Where is the problem? As long as this gives positive CAFD per share in the end it is not a bad deal. They are doing the right thing, being aggressive while competitors are still in the process of ramping up for similar operating platform, later they will all do the same thing and margins will become non-existent.

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always margins in an oligopolistic global energy market.

Basically they are just doing what they are here for. Accumulating MWs through collecting capital. That is called an operating platform. Where is the problem? As long as this gives positive CAFD per share in the end it is not a bad deal. They are doing the right thing, being aggressive while competitors are still in the process of ramping up for similar operating platform, later they will all do the same thing and margins will become non-existent.

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always margins in an oligopolistic global energy market.

Not sure if this will be a oligopolistic market, it is not so difficult to build projects. Would be interesting to see research if project building has really been trended from fragmented to concentrated over the last years. What I meant for TERP doing it right by issuing equity and soak up all that MWs, that is their only choice executing their business model, now when there are still margins get these MW all, because equity comes with so low cost of capital.  

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