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Guest greensolar

Bankrupt Solar-LDK, Suntech, SunEdison

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Guest nanofrogfish_spf

I guess it’s obvious from my post that I believe it’s deliberate...this is based on a year’s worth of commentary and on who her employer is (Bloomberg). It’s like FOX vs MSNBC...you can spin stuff anyway you want to make your point. But just another example IMO, there’s an article in REW about Large Scale Solar Plants in Spain without subsidies being planned, and she has the following comment;

“Utility-scale solar projects in Spain will face overcapacity in the electricity market, according to New Energy Finance’s Chase. “We fear the economics may not work long-term, even if supported by current electricity pool prices, because large amounts of solar in the Spanish grid would depress daytime power prices,” she said.”

So I guess her argument against these plants is that it will make electricity too cheap in the future? But isn’t that a good thing? And how come there is never any mention of the clean energy and energy independence parts of the equation...which is the whole purpose of all this solar stuff to begin with?

I could go on and on about “New Energy Finance”, and their “expert” who’s constantly quoted (btw, they’re technically quoting themselves in these articles...Mark Roca from Bloomberg quoting Jenny Chase from Bloomberg’s affiliate), but who also has no experience in the real business world (just look at her bio), let alone the solar manufacturing world. Odyd has ten times or more the knowledge of the industry...he should be in charge of “NEF”, but his “fair and balanced” views would probably not be welcomed there...

Ok, my mini-rant regarding “NEF” is over for now...at least until the next self-quoted solar article comes out on Bloomberg...

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Nano, I can understand your frustration, but the best way to handle the resistance is to play into it by accumulate the future winners on the bargains the resistance is causing. One has to be careful to not be burned on the volatility though. Anyone who thinks about it realizes that their resistance is futile over time. If the virtually unlimited and easily accessibly sand supply can cheaply be converted to clean non-emitting power generators, why cook the planet by burning limited fossil reserves? Save the fossils for a rainy day when portable high density fuel is really required and can be converted efficiently. Unlimited, cheap, clean, non-emitting, self-sufficient. Who wouldn't want that as their energy supply strategy? The nuclear fission parantheses have lasted 50 years and should be in decline now. I think we'll have a 100-200 years parantheses of solar and wind dominance until new technology allows clean and safe release of the nuclear forces.

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Guest nanofrogfish_spf

explo, excellent points to remember. At some point down the road I'm sure I'll be thankful for these extended buying opportunities at ridiculously low prices. I believe the future winners and losers are much clearer now, and like you noted it's more a matter of "when" now instead of "if"...

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Chase displaying logic again in Bloomberg article:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-21/first-large-solar-plants-without-subsidy-sought-in-spain.html

"Utility-scale solar projects in Spain will face overcapacity in the electricity market, according to New Energy Finance’s Chase.

“We fear the economics may not work long-term, even if supported by current electricity pool prices, because large amounts of solar in the Spanish grid would depress daytime power prices,” she said. "

So solar would make electricity cheaper and therefore it does not work long-term? Big Oil Busted or what?

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Guest spiritcraft

I guess you have to define "work". In this case, yes, it does not "work" for those who want things as they are. So now it is too cheap? I guess I have now officially heard it all.

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For 2012 to 2014 were 443M in LDK's latest 20-F. When I read that I thought that's not good considering they can't utilize the 4.3GW wafer equipment they have. Here's from the 2011AR 20-F filing: "The $443.0 million of non-cancelable purchase obligations relating to equipment in the above table included an aggregate amount of $154.6 million, $66.0 million and $38.0 million in purchase obligations to JYT Corporation for pullers, Applied Materials for wire saws and Tokyo Rope for wire saws, respectively, to be delivered in 2012 and 2013 and 2014." And here's a PR today that you could expect from that: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ldk-solar-announces-arbitration-ruling-081500914.html Some people got hubris during the shiny days. Again I cannot believe JASO's commitment to Hefei city to build 3GW integrated wafer to module there. They have 187M non-cancelable capex commitments, but have close to 2 billion purchase commitments under take or pay agreement (GCL negotiated well?). JASO seems to committed in this changing industry.

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Hi Explo, I would like to reply to you here on your points made on YGE news release. The average efficiency of 17.75% gives you 4.32 watts per cell, multiply this by 60 and you have 259W, per module. Due to sorting techniques they can probably make a lot of those. Now with CTM loss I would say they are 254-255W range. So the improvement is around 5%. Yes the capacity particularly new one. is all polycrystalline. They got back to SOL, TSL, JA and CSIQ levels. Yingli has a lot of going on for them in China. Regardless of their share structure and minority ownership , the company is becoming an new flagship (Suntech's place). I would not be too surprised if they start absorbing other names in deals like LDK announced.

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Hi Explo, I would like to reply to you here on your points made on YGE news release. The average efficiency of 17.75% gives you 4.32 watts per cell, multiply this by 60 and you have 259W, per module. Due to sorting techniques they can probably make a lot of those. Now with CTM loss I would say they are 254-255W range. So the improvement is around 5%. Yes the capacity particularly new one. is all polycrystalline. They got back to SOL, TSL, JA and CSIQ levels. Yingli has a lot of going on for them in China. Regardless of their share structure and minority ownership , the company is becoming an new flagship (Suntech's place). I would not be too surprised if they start absorbing other names in deals like LDK announced.

I used 4% CTM loss from SOL's description of 4.5% for mono and 4.0% for multi. That's how I got to 249w from 259w sum of cells. I'm not sure if CTM loss varies a lot and 4% is at the high end though..? Yes, Yingli will be the dominator in module shipments and thus revenue. Right now I'd say they are about to pass Suntech as the best Chinese brand and they have the most attractive product portfolio. That will make it easy for them to compete for market share. I'm a bit surprised with their focus on the domestic market, since markets like China and Germany should be used to soak up the glut of weak competition, while strong players grab shares in the high ASP markets. One way to get their PPE per watt averaged down is to utilize the demand for their products and the consolidation phase to pick up equipment dirt cheap. They have 18 cents in opex and interest and another 7 cents in depreciation. That's gonna eat up a lot of those gross profits. Still I think this is a game changer for my YGE view, together with the positive cost outlook they've given and it might be a second pick for me after SOL. YGE will remain and lead and over time they might work the structure out for more return to share holders.Main worry now is why they focus so much on China instead of for example trying to get big in quality and brand aware Japan.

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Guest greensolar

Yingli Expects 2012 Panel Shipments to Exceed 2.2 Gigawatts

Yingli Green Energy Holding Co., a Chinese solar manufacturer, expects 2012 panel shipments of more than 2.2 gigawatts.

That exceeds an earlier forecast of 2.1 gigawatts to 2.2 gigawatts, the Baoding, China-based company said today in a statement. At that volume, Yingli expects to become the world’s largest panel maker.

“According to public data to date, we believe Yingli has evolved into the largest PV module supplier,” Chief Executive Officer Miao Liansheng said in the statement.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/yingli-green-energy-reaches-historical-220000936.html

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Interesting. This implies that 561MW of modules would garner revenue in Q4. I am very hopeful for others as this indicates huge domestic sales, nothing I have seen thus far in exports. However December could be the big one. Nothing moves with any regularity. I am optimistic now. In less than 3 weeks we should be able to see rest of the quarter. This is really good regardless.

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Very good news as YGE hasn't tracked great on the exports data. Some have been much worse, but some have been tracking ahead of guidance as well.

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Guest larryvand

YGE has had the bulk of China wins. So does that mean that funding for those wins has come through and China is going all out to building those plants (which would mean other winners as well), or is that demand coming from both China and abroad?

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It suggests that China has been HUGE in Q4. Yge has not been exporting enough in October and November to meet guidance based on how much it was expected to ship to China. Still they'll beat guidance. If they are not exporting like crazy in December this means the China market has been much bigger than YGE expected and they've diverted shipment to it. Their guidance means they'll ship around 600 mw in Q4, which is at capacity, so they probably had to reduce exports to fill China requirements. JASO, JKS and LDK has also planned to ship a lot to China, but their exports have been even lower than can be expected from that. I'm now thinking that those that have focused a lot on the Chinese market have had more to fill there than they expected and have thus reduced exports. Others like Trina have also had very low exports. I think this makes odyd more positive on them, since it probably means that Trina's ambition to double shipments to China in Q4 were exceeded, that's why exports have been lower than expected. The shift in name ranking we've seen in the exports data, might reflect more who's going heavily domestic and who's going international than whos able to sell most. WSJ reported today that China targets 10GW new installs this year. This is just going to soak up so much of that Chinese capacity that would otherwise compete on international markets. Looks like the China boom is happening and the magnitude can pull the whole global industry up this year. I don't mean to get carried away, but I do feel something finally brewing here.

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Guest spiritcraft

It seems so. I have a simplistic question. Is there a dramatic difference in ASP's for China like there was say a year ago? Any thoughts?

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Guest larryvand

Odyd is showing LDK polysilicon for 2012 25,000MT and for 2013 55,000 MT. Is that correct??? Is LDK really going to bring online 30,000 MT in 2013??? I find that hard to believe.

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This is old times data. No longer applies imho, but company never changed that, so it is staying for now.

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From 2011 20-F: "Inner Mongolia Polysilicon Manufacturing Facility. In September 2011, we entered into a framework cooperation agreement with the Municipal Government of Hohhot, capital of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China, with regard to the construction and development of a proposed polysilicon manufacturing facility in Jinsan Development Zone to produce high-purity polysilicon. As planned, the Hohhot facility will have two phases, each an annualized polysilicon production capacity of 30,000 MT. The framework cooperation agreement, except for certain confidentiality terms, is not legally binding, and only memorializes mutual understandings by both sides. Although we have completed basic engineering and design of the project, the commencement of the construction work is subject to final approvals from relevant NDRC and local government authorities." We can assume that they are deferring this. They've also previously annouced expansion plans into sapphire wafer and silane gas manufacturing, which they both officially delayed with intention to resume when market is better. Now they have to handle all equipment purchase obligations made when they thought they could grow much fasters. Just the obligation against JYT costed them $47M to get out - a very significant portion of the obligation.

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Guest spiritcraft

Slightly relevant... I really wish that we would not have been so "knee Jerk" here in the US and appealed to Chi-Solars to bring some manufacturing presence here rather than imposing penalties. It would have been such a win-win to offer incentives to have some kind of plant here. I remember Nevada enticing APWR to open a shop there for gods sake. We need thoughtful and brave long sightedness rather than a reactionary fighting mentality.

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Guest greensolar

LDK Solar Co Ltd Signs Share Purchase Agreement with Fulai Investment

LDK Solar Co Ltd announced that it has entered into a share purchase agreement dated January 21, 2013 with Fulai Investments Limited, which has agreed to purchase 17,000,000 newly issued ordinary shares of LDK Solar, at a purchase price of USD1.83 per share with an aggregate purchase price of USD31,110,000, subject to the terms and conditions of the share purchase agreement, including a lock-up for 180 days from the closing date of the contemplated transactions. Pursuant to the share purchase agreement, the parties will endeavor to fulfill the closing conditions to consummate the transactions prior to February 28, 2013. Fulai Investments also has the right to designate two non-executive directors to the LDK Solar board upon consummation of the transactions. The net proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes in LDK Solar's operations.

http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/LDK/key-developments/article/2678116

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Originally I thought it maybe a toxic issue to cover outstanding short, but not that many shares shorted. Sounds as private placement of sorts more than investment. It does not take a lot anymore to buy into a company.

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Not long ago they sold 16% for 22m, so a step forward. I don't understand these buys. They have more than 5 billion in liabilities and have run out of equity. It's like throwing one bucket of water on a house roof on fire. Little chance it makes any difference, better to just hope for a well timed rain fall instead.

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Guest greensolar

Sorry for posting the whole article is a google translation The LDK Solar Conditional CDB 400 million yuan of special loans #mce_temp_url# 08 Xinhua net Nanchang, January 26 (Reporter Sun Weiwei, Linyan Xing, Liu Bin) Xinhua News Agency reporter 26 exclusively learned that meet the pre-conditions for the case of LDK Solar Hi-Tech Co., Ltd. (LDK.NY, 11 the Zevi MTN1) National Development Bank will receive more than 400 million yuan loan for silicon materials plant overhaul subordinates cold hydrogenated transformation.The transformation is complete, Zevi silicon material production costs will be reduced to less than $ 20 per kilogram, expected to be restarted, and strive to separate listing. Jiangxi Branch sources close CDB, the CDB on this loan is a pre-condition, and has not been paid in place, the future will be in the appropriate marketprices under the conditions given to LDK Solar, in order to ensure that the cold hydride transformation in place profit after the company won. Insiders said that, even so, this loan is approved the amount of new loans is still the first time since 2011 CDB Zevi new loans, but also China's banking sector since last year only a handful of China's photovoltaic industry. This indicates that the Chinese banking institutions Zevi even Chinese PV industry is gradually restored confidence. Liabilities are too high and continues to rise, LDK Solar troubled, its asset-liability ratio increased from 78.2% in the second quarter of 2011 quarter by quarter, and 94% in the third quarter of 2012, total liabilities amounted to 20.6 billion yuan. Silicon materials plant investment of 12 billion yuan Zevi liabilities whereabouts. Europe, the United States and South Korea to dumping cheap Chinese silicon material, LDK is located the McMahon and under village Total annual production capacity of 22,000 tons of silicon materials plant due to high production costs, can not Shunjiaxiaoshou, have been discontinued since May 2012 has so far failed to resume production. , LDK has invested several hundred million dollars on the transformation of the cold hydrogenated silicon materials plant in order to reduce the cost of production of the silicon material, trying to resume production as soon as possible. The the LDK Group President and CEO of the Tong Hing snow before an interview with reporters, said silicon materials plant investment liabilities heavy, but recover its effect will be obvious. With the case of silicon materials in Europe and the United States "double reverse" neighboring increase in the domestic market price of silicon material or fairly rapid. Just invested several hundred million dollars of funds, the silicon material plant will soon be put into production, cash flow and profits earned by the company, the force to help the company to profitability. Until conditions are ripe, the company will continue to strive silicon materials plant in the capital market.

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Green, I would prefer if you post observations from the article, rather than the text of the translation. Anyone can go to google translate and do exactly what you have done. Please consider this. Article here speaks of the reduction of the interest payments from 100M yuan to 30M yuan a month. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20130125/415646.shtml Interesting take on M3, avoid selling in China to eliminate plagiarism. Not to include common components and only own tech. This is sort of part of the vision I have about differentiation. All the firms which buy wafers from GCL, can only separate from each other by cell technology. Those with semi-vertical integration will have no choice but to upgrade their wafer technology or abandon it. In respect of SOL, only the most capable wafers will be used in their modules. Understood, but certainly not appreciated for wafer clients, who's modules would be in disadvantage. At one point wafer companies may have to stop their module lines or differentiation in wafer for own modules could force others to carrying on in wafer development on their own, just to compete on the module level. It is hard to see what scenario would win today, but it seems as too many choices to take.

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Guest greensolar

Thats no problem, The only reason I posted the whole translated article is that not everyone can get the translation depending what type of device or browser they are using.:)

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