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Usbstefan

Solar Member
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Everything posted by Usbstefan

  1. In my opinion, CSIQ has had a greater string of positive announcements lately, including project wins and margin expansion. FSLR is still in execution of CIP phase and that hasn’t gone smoothly. If FSLR shows any acceleration of ramp up to Series 6, large project wins, margin expansion, etc. the share price trends could shift quickly.
  2. Pipeline continues to build. Shows the series 6 is competitive. Execution on capital plan continues to be a risk as additional costs and headwinds seem to pop up continuously. They clearly have the balance sheet to deal with it, but investors are fickle. Like how Goldman upped their price target. Also JPMs comments on the pipeline extending through 2023 is positive. Seems as though the industry is showing signs of consolidation with th Longi, Jks and Csiq showing leadership and pulling ahead further. Fslr looks to be among them, especially if their wattage continues to increase. Overall tough year in 2018, and not too surprising. More important is the future positioning and they look solid from that standpoint.
  3. For all you traders ... any thoughts as to how large of a share buyback they would need to do (assuming they were to do one in 2019) in order for there to be effect?
  4. Mark ... shorting of FSLR seems unreal. So much opposition to upward moves.
  5. Luz ... its hard to know exactly, but my runs come out to your levels. Additional detail on which modules are being used (i.e., 4 vs. 6) for systems, etc. is what makes it hard to pinpoint to exact detail. Approximate figures for me indicate that without the series 6 transition costs, plus better economics of series 6 will bring them up above $4.00 eps easily. This assumes ASP stay firm. Either way, they seem to have built a cushion for 2021 and are in the midst of planning addition measures for that period (i.e., safe harbor, additional capital spending, etc.). I though the call was find. FSLR seems to be executing great. Soon to come ... efficiency gains?
  6. Yes. Given the influence Goldman analysts have on the capital markets it is great to see Brian become more supportive of the company’s prospects.
  7. JMP is out with a report saying street estimates of 2019 margins maybe too high. They believe current price is fair.
  8. What will CSIQs asp be in 2019? It sounded like they have some contracted margins, but for only 3 months out? Anyone know if that refers to beginning in 2019? From the transcript it looked like their 4Q margins are to remain fairly stable q-o-q. So I’m wondering if their asp is expected to stay flat or increase, or their cost is expected to decline, or they have contract protection like FSLR. From what I could tell the big drop in poly prices is helping them out, which will naturally flow through the other upstream components as well. As long as asp stays elevated seems like CSIQ is going to do very well. Curious to see if some of their higher asp is due to higher efficiency product mix.
  9. What's interesting is that FSLR is still booking sales despite the reduction in mono perc module pricing.
  10. Yes. Now we just need people to see the light.
  11. Read some where that UBS has FSLR at $85.
  12. Mark, Don't worry pretty soon solar manufacturers will be making and giving their modules for free. This is going to happen in 2021. So yes ... while us investors lose our hard earned money or so called investments ... the world will get free solar energy and a cleaner environment. Who cares if FSLR is showing more and more signs of being an industry leader and one of few companies best positioned for this consolidation phase. JMP is right, there will always be some newcomer out of China (presumably) with a bankroll who will just buy the latest manufacturing technology and then sell at a lower cost than everyone else. They too will eventually go bankrupt like all solar manufacturers before them. So yes ... what multiple do you assign these companies when they are all going to go bankrupt anyway.
  13. I was able to listen to the safe harbor statement and I think they are referring to the recent IRS ruling allowing utility solar to qualify for ITC for four years. So it sounds like they are anticipating some great development opportunities after 2020. I say 2020 because it sounds like they are almost out of modules until then.
  14. After hours ... while light is not liking the guidance chance it looks like though.
  15. Also ... it sounds like they may have more Series 6 available earlier now.
  16. Anyone catch what the CFO was saying about safe harbor towards the end of the call? This came up during Credit Suisse asking about cash return/M&A, etc.
  17. Sounds like the delay in sale of the Ishikawa project may provide a higher IRR. So delayed cash flow/profit, but had a higher clip. Sounds like good judgement to me as CEO.
  18. Not sure how all of the other manufacturers are going to do, but it sounds like FSLR is on their game. Bookings growth continues now into 2021, and system's bookings continue to grow. Their wattage is now hitting 430, and there seems to be implication of further increases in the coming months and years.
  19. So much selling/shorting in solars right now. Watching FSLR go up and then come right back down and down and down is depressing. What do these shorts know?
  20. Yes. I agree it’s an interesting comment. Just from personal observation, the market seems to be transitioning away from subsidies, which will distinguish between well managed and mismanaged companies. The JinkoSolar, Canadian Solars, Longi, First Solar seen well positioned for the future. I may have missed several companies, but just wanted to make a point.
  21. Thank you for the summary. Those are big numbers. I’m assuming subsidy free so they expect grid parity it seems over the next two years. Would be huge for the whole sector if the plan is implemented as stated.
  22. Thank you SC! I was not aware of the detail.
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