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MVA

Solar Member
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Everything posted by MVA

  1. MVA

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Did Qu mention anything about buyout schedule?
  2. MVA

    Daqo (DQ)

    Listen to what Qu said himself (start at 2:33 minute): https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=7&v=fVVZWLpU3Ns
  3. MVA

    Daqo (DQ)

    Poly dropping is very much an issue for FSLR and other thin film guys... Since cost of silicon technology is going down and competitiveness is growing. As for S6 modules, look at competition - Canadian Solar HIKU modules. HiKu is the first poly module (attention Poly, not Mono) exceeding 400 W and thus reaches one of the highest poly module power outputs in the solar industry. Also, If HIKU to convert to bifacial type then we may have module of 680 W capacity, as back side generates 70% of the front, according to Qu (CEO) himself. Same amount of aluminum for frame, savings in land use, etc, etc... Plus, new Indian 25% tariff blocks modules form China and Malaysia, exactly where FSLR and SPWR have facilities. And Vietnam and Thailand are exempt (as developing nations), exactly where CSIQ have production. https://www.canadiansolar.com/en/solar-panels/hiku.html
  4. MVA

    Solar News

    Trina Solar thinks differently... And they are inside the industry, unlike above mentioned ANALysts, who thinks "hypothetically", sitting on the 66-th floor in Manhattan.... https://www.pv-tech.org/news/pv-talk-rongfang-yin-vice-president-of-global-sales-and-marketing-at-trina
  5. MVA

    Solar News

    Vietnam & Thailand are exempt. Canadian solar has production in those countries...
  6. MVA

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Again, no PR on this as well - "Canadian Solar breaks ground on 80-MW PV plant in Argentina" https://renewablesnow.com/news/canadian-solar-breaks-ground-on-80-mw-pv-plant-in-argentina-620506/ Something is going on at Canadian headquarters, because before recently any minor news was published on time...
  7. MVA

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Canadian Solar has secured 200 MW project in India with a tariff of Rs 2.70 per unit... Not a small volume, but there is no Press Release from the company... Canadian solar is very quiet lately in terms of PR... https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/economy/solar-tariffs-dip-to-a-low-of-rs-2-44unit-for-a-3rd-time-2709961.html
  8. MVA

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    To: Explo I do not perceive Canadian solar as only (commodity type) PV modul producer. They are in downstream segment as well, with Recurrent in North America and other developing units all over the world. Hence, what PV commodity part of the business will lose, downstream part will gain. Their pipeline of projects, with already negotiated PPAs, automatically translates into high margin business provided PV panels will be installed there at half the cost of initially calculated plan. Don't you see a Big diffrence between CSIQ of 2011 and CSIQ of 2018?
  9. MVA

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    It looks like there are more interested parties to buy CSIQ shares from the market now than just Dr. Qu. And he understands that when it comes eventually to vote on his offer, there will be institutions like JPM, who can vote No, if price will not suit them. On top of it, while selling PV projects (and they still have plenty), book value of the company inevitably grows. Dust will settle, panic will dissapear in a week or three and solar industry crisis will pass as before and market price will go up again. At least two major catalists are ahead - Indian decision on Antidumping and EU abolishing minimum selling price in October. So, for him, it would be perfect solution to maintain 18.47 and, while at peace with everybody, to take it off the market sooner than later.
  10. MVA

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    The following table sets forth information with respect to the beneficial ownership of CSIQ common shares as of March 31, 2018. The calculations in the table below are based on the 58,581,765 common shares outstanding, as of March 31, 2018: I think JPM most probably have managed to increase their share from 7.7% to above 10%, in the period March-31 - June 15/2018. Not mentioning other institutions. And JPM average holding price apparently is above $15/share. As for Dr. Qu: We see that on December 11/2017 (the day buyout offer was submitted) he owned 23.5% and on March 31/2018, according to Annual report (http://investors.canadiansolar.com/static-files/987b66f9-4238-4952-9f3d-e135ad0224af), he still owns 23.5%. Which means - he is not buying. Or, to be more precise, in the period of December 11/2017 - March 31/2018, he didn't purchase a single share...
  11. MVA

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Candian Solar wasn't shipping Chinese modules to USA since April 2017... Most of their modules were shipped to USA from Canada (under NAFTA) and Thailand/SE Asia. This additional tariff of 25% will eliminate second/third tier Chinese producers who were hoping to dump their panels on USA market after dramatic Chinese policy change...
  12. MVA

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Yes, $18.45/share currently, but if to sell now all, already accumulated, projects - book value is going to be around 24-26$/share. Isn't it? Especially if CAPEX will be reduced now due to Chinese policy change. And it looks like JP Morgan was hoarding Canadian shares in the period of December 2017 - June 2018, at average price of 15-16$/share. Now they own more than 10% of the company. I find it hard to believe they will accept anything lower than 18,47$/share...
  13. MVA

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Canadian achieved quite solid results: EPS (last 4 Qs): $2.61/share. Debt is going down. Book value is around $19.5/share now... What a shame... If not this stupid offer ($18.47), we would fly now to $27-$32/share... Jinco is above $20/share now, with zero projects in their portfolio... How this committee is going to justify 18.47...?
  14. MVA

    Trading Strategy

    Agreed. I actually send my letter directly to Qu (tru Investor PR rep) they promised me it will be given to him... 😕
  15. MVA

    Trading Strategy

    It took Trina about 7 month to decide. Dec 24/2015 non-binding offer form CEO was presented and July 30/2016 - final definitive agreement was signed. In case of CSIQ - Dec 09/2017 offer was presented to BOD and today is already 6 month...
  16. MVA

    Trading Strategy

    Annual meeting is on June 27/2018. Don't you think it would be wise for them to finalize negotiation by the end of May-2018, before sending out voting ballots? Shareholders are angry with CEO and BOD (for capping the stock with this ridiculous price offer 18.47), they (shareholders) may vote them all out of their current positions to introduce someone from institutional holders... Also look at Japanese yealdco... Price moved UP to 106,000 level... So, my bet is end of May for decision to be announced.
  17. MVA

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Canadian Solar secured 290 MW of photovoltaic capacity as Brazil awarded contracts for 39 projects in its latest renewable energy supply auction. https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/04/06/brazilian-pv-market-is-maturing-faster-than-expected-comment/
  18. MVA

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    I was talking about events after Dec-11/2017... Regardless of how I hate them for what they did to long term investors (me), I see no manipulations from the company's management after Dec-11/2017... ANALysts, on the other hand, yes - they do manipulate with their stupid upgrade/downgrade game....
  19. MVA

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    We will see. Very soon :-)
  20. MVA

    Solar News

    Be careful with DQ!!! Qu (CSIQ chieftain), during ER today, confirmed that Silicon prices went down to $14-15/kg level already...
  21. MVA

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    To be honest with you Mark, I saw today not a single sign of "obfuscation"... I guess Qu decided to do it (goPrivate) honest and correct way... Therefore, I am strongly convinced now that price will be adjusted to $20 - 21/share level... BOD/Committee not stupid, they know now that they will be asked eventually to justify 18.47/share versus 20-26/share at JKS... and we all know what JKS is...
  22. MVA

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Qu presentation was good today, clear and distinctly... I think buyout price will be adjusted to $19,5 - $20.5/share level...
  23. MVA

    Solar News

    looks like they (ANALysts) pump JKS to drop hard on ER day, and they push down CSIQ this entire week to buy cheap before VERY possible jump on ER day on Monday... Fun to see if I am right...
  24. MVA

    JA Solar (JASO)

    So, 10% can block the deal?
  25. MVA

    Daqo (DQ)

    ASP decline is already affecting... And contract reneging - is common practice in China... When (not if) price go back to 14 $/kg... I wonder how many clients will respect 19 $ contract and try HARD not to renegotiate ... :-))))
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