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MVA

Solar Member
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Everything posted by MVA

  1. MVA

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Dr. Qu updating on PV manufacturing cost: "I also gave a cost outlook in 2016. I was pretty accurate through Q4 2017. I was also accurate to predict that the manufacturing cost will go down to 25 cents per Watt, but I did not predict the timing right. Module manufacturing cost is reaching 25 cents per Watt in Q4 2018 for leading manufacturers, literally as we speak, rather than in Q4 of 2020 as I originally predicted." https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/breakaway-hat-trick-solar-dr-shawn-qu/
  2. MVA

    Solar News

    It looks like Trump's tariff stimulates drastic Yuan depreciation vs USD, which helps enormously those PV manufacturers in China, who have substantial share of sales to Export (sales out of China)... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-30/jpmorgan-says-u-s-china-tariffs-to-go-all-out-lowers-yuan-call?srnd=premium
  3. MVA

    JinkoSolar (JKS)

    I think it became obvious to all that 400 mill investment in Florida factory was a bad decision... I didn't see other news on them though... May be something else pops up later today...
  4. MVA

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Sounds logical, especially after TESLA's go private twits with "funding secured" joke... Nobody wants SEC investigation...
  5. MVA

    Solar News

    EU officially ends MIP for Chinese solar imports https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/08/31/eu-ends-mip-against-chinese/
  6. MVA

    Solar News

    Monday, September 3 is closest catalyst - European MIP (minimum import price) expiration. India is tariff free, and if EU is free and China confirms 10 GW policy - then all solar will explode!
  7. MVA

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Canadian Solar up nearly 4% on buyout interest... https://seekingalpha.com/news/3386435-canadian-solar-nearly-4-percent-buyout-interest?app=1#email_link
  8. MVA

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Looks like FSLR is loosing the crown in favor of CSIQ... 🙂
  9. MVA

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    I've been listening to every Canadian Solar conference call since 2014, and this is the first time so many analysts participated. The interest in Canadian Solar is very high nowadays, it seems to me. I think, tomorrow, we might have a number of positive upgrades, especially after revelation about current Canadian module cost in China: $0.21-0.24/wt, subject to module complexity. I think many interested parties started to understand, that keeping the stock price this low discourages Qu from finalizing buyout quickly, and in order to stimulate him the price have to return to 16-17 level... HQCL's high valued buyout offer is also handy and timely, as a reference, though ownership structure is different... What do you think Robert, are we going to see 16-17 level soon?
  10. MVA

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Did Qu mention anything about buyout schedule?
  11. MVA

    Daqo (DQ)

    Listen to what Qu said himself (start at 2:33 minute): https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=7&v=fVVZWLpU3Ns
  12. MVA

    Daqo (DQ)

    Poly dropping is very much an issue for FSLR and other thin film guys... Since cost of silicon technology is going down and competitiveness is growing. As for S6 modules, look at competition - Canadian Solar HIKU modules. HiKu is the first poly module (attention Poly, not Mono) exceeding 400 W and thus reaches one of the highest poly module power outputs in the solar industry. Also, If HIKU to convert to bifacial type then we may have module of 680 W capacity, as back side generates 70% of the front, according to Qu (CEO) himself. Same amount of aluminum for frame, savings in land use, etc, etc... Plus, new Indian 25% tariff blocks modules form China and Malaysia, exactly where FSLR and SPWR have facilities. And Vietnam and Thailand are exempt (as developing nations), exactly where CSIQ have production. https://www.canadiansolar.com/en/solar-panels/hiku.html
  13. MVA

    Solar News

    Trina Solar thinks differently... And they are inside the industry, unlike above mentioned ANALysts, who thinks "hypothetically", sitting on the 66-th floor in Manhattan.... https://www.pv-tech.org/news/pv-talk-rongfang-yin-vice-president-of-global-sales-and-marketing-at-trina
  14. MVA

    Solar News

    Vietnam & Thailand are exempt. Canadian solar has production in those countries...
  15. MVA

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Again, no PR on this as well - "Canadian Solar breaks ground on 80-MW PV plant in Argentina" https://renewablesnow.com/news/canadian-solar-breaks-ground-on-80-mw-pv-plant-in-argentina-620506/ Something is going on at Canadian headquarters, because before recently any minor news was published on time...
  16. MVA

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Canadian Solar has secured 200 MW project in India with a tariff of Rs 2.70 per unit... Not a small volume, but there is no Press Release from the company... Canadian solar is very quiet lately in terms of PR... https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/economy/solar-tariffs-dip-to-a-low-of-rs-2-44unit-for-a-3rd-time-2709961.html
  17. MVA

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    To: Explo I do not perceive Canadian solar as only (commodity type) PV modul producer. They are in downstream segment as well, with Recurrent in North America and other developing units all over the world. Hence, what PV commodity part of the business will lose, downstream part will gain. Their pipeline of projects, with already negotiated PPAs, automatically translates into high margin business provided PV panels will be installed there at half the cost of initially calculated plan. Don't you see a Big diffrence between CSIQ of 2011 and CSIQ of 2018?
  18. MVA

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    It looks like there are more interested parties to buy CSIQ shares from the market now than just Dr. Qu. And he understands that when it comes eventually to vote on his offer, there will be institutions like JPM, who can vote No, if price will not suit them. On top of it, while selling PV projects (and they still have plenty), book value of the company inevitably grows. Dust will settle, panic will dissapear in a week or three and solar industry crisis will pass as before and market price will go up again. At least two major catalists are ahead - Indian decision on Antidumping and EU abolishing minimum selling price in October. So, for him, it would be perfect solution to maintain 18.47 and, while at peace with everybody, to take it off the market sooner than later.
  19. MVA

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    The following table sets forth information with respect to the beneficial ownership of CSIQ common shares as of March 31, 2018. The calculations in the table below are based on the 58,581,765 common shares outstanding, as of March 31, 2018: I think JPM most probably have managed to increase their share from 7.7% to above 10%, in the period March-31 - June 15/2018. Not mentioning other institutions. And JPM average holding price apparently is above $15/share. As for Dr. Qu: We see that on December 11/2017 (the day buyout offer was submitted) he owned 23.5% and on March 31/2018, according to Annual report (http://investors.canadiansolar.com/static-files/987b66f9-4238-4952-9f3d-e135ad0224af), he still owns 23.5%. Which means - he is not buying. Or, to be more precise, in the period of December 11/2017 - March 31/2018, he didn't purchase a single share...
  20. MVA

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Candian Solar wasn't shipping Chinese modules to USA since April 2017... Most of their modules were shipped to USA from Canada (under NAFTA) and Thailand/SE Asia. This additional tariff of 25% will eliminate second/third tier Chinese producers who were hoping to dump their panels on USA market after dramatic Chinese policy change...
  21. MVA

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Yes, $18.45/share currently, but if to sell now all, already accumulated, projects - book value is going to be around 24-26$/share. Isn't it? Especially if CAPEX will be reduced now due to Chinese policy change. And it looks like JP Morgan was hoarding Canadian shares in the period of December 2017 - June 2018, at average price of 15-16$/share. Now they own more than 10% of the company. I find it hard to believe they will accept anything lower than 18,47$/share...
  22. MVA

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Canadian achieved quite solid results: EPS (last 4 Qs): $2.61/share. Debt is going down. Book value is around $19.5/share now... What a shame... If not this stupid offer ($18.47), we would fly now to $27-$32/share... Jinco is above $20/share now, with zero projects in their portfolio... How this committee is going to justify 18.47...?
  23. MVA

    Trading Strategy

    Agreed. I actually send my letter directly to Qu (tru Investor PR rep) they promised me it will be given to him... 😕
  24. MVA

    Trading Strategy

    It took Trina about 7 month to decide. Dec 24/2015 non-binding offer form CEO was presented and July 30/2016 - final definitive agreement was signed. In case of CSIQ - Dec 09/2017 offer was presented to BOD and today is already 6 month...
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