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Everything posted by MVA

  1. Solar News

    I am curious if, besides DACA, democrats are also pushing for PV tariff total rejection, to avoid government shutdown...? Timing is just perfect...
  2. Daqo (DQ)

    Watch out for Hemlock... If there will be a deal, in the next 10 days, with 201 section rejection in exchange for Chinese poly market access for Hemlock and other US poly producers, then DQ may have a problem... https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/01/12/hemlock-calls-on-trump-to-restore-access-to-the-chinese-polysilicon-market/
  3. Daqo (DQ)

    Polysilicon is not some RareEarth metal, which can be difficult to mine/produce. Silicon is abundant, this niche with a high price will be filled quickly... And then oversupply... GCL-Poly Energy Holdings is one of many who adds 40 000 mt of polysilicon to Chinese market in 2018...https://www.pv-tech.org/news/gcl-poly-to-spend-us823-million-on-expanding-polysilicon-production-by-4000
  4. Daqo (DQ)

    She is right. My background is 17 years of Ferroalloy production and trading. Ferrosilicon (met grade) is one of them. Metal oversupply happens constantly. When producer is facing oversupply and price going below production cost, there is usually two scenarios: 1) is to shut down facility, send employees home with 75% pay, continue to pay multiple payments (taxes, leases, rents, maintenance, etc) and wait until shortage of material on the market again or 2) continue producing at a loss. But that loss will be smaller than loss at idle facility. I had personally experienced at one facility 6 times what I have described. So, Yes, price can go below 12 or 7 or whatever cost is at DQ, in no time. And yes, one should expect oversupply in China as there is expected extra volumes coming online in 2018....also what is important is that Silicon price of $20/kg is only in China, the rest of the world has around 15... such situation is going to change, it can’t be like that for a long time...
  5. Solar News

    What is going on with JA Solar? Anybody knows? Volume 1.5 mln and price 7.62, $0.07 more than buyout offer (7.55)... Is it the last day on the market for JASO?
  6. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Canadian Solar Sells 80 MW Solar Project in Maharashtra, India https://mercomindia.com/canadian-solar-solar-project-maharashtra/ I don't remember company's Press Release on this sale...
  7. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Brazil to hold another auction including solar in April 2018 https://www.pv-magazine.com/2017/12/04/brazil-to-hold-another-auction-including-solar-in-april/
  8. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Wow, JASO in Premarket 7.78/share... Above buyout price 7.55...
  9. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    It is obvious that institutional investors (and other ordinary SH) have two options now: 1) to sell now and repurchase lower (trading). 2) continue to hold their 44.5 mln of shares and simply demand higher price, suggesting to BoD (everybody can send a letter both to CEO or BoD) that there will be "No" vote to 18.47... Like you said the whole game is going to be short, due to reasons mentioned here many times, therefore what is the most efficient decision here: to keep and suggest "No" or to trade & speculate? I think the most efficient way would be to "suggest" No, force Qu into upping offer to 19.5 - 20.5 level and then say Yes. And everybody happy. If you have 2 - 3 mln of shares, like one of those institutions (DNB Asset Management AS or QUENTEC ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC) , and daily trading volume is just 700-900 000 shares, what would you do - trade or increase price simply saying No...?
  10. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    "No" vote will keep it public.
  11. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Another question for you Robert: Can Institutional investors (who own approx 24 mln of shares, 42%) organize themself into "Private Equity holding" or "group" and represent their 42% collectively while trading/negotiating with Qu/BoD? Plausible? I am asking because GJ mentioned in his interview to Benzinga that "there is significant push back in shareholders community against buyout offer" I wonder who are those who are pushing back?
  12. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Regarding clause #2, CSIQ is incorporated in Canada with production capacity in many countries. Not exactly 100% Chinese entity. Same is APPLE, incorporated in USA with production facilities in China...
  13. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    I would suggest Scenario #3. If by December 31/2017 there will be no sale of projects, first week of January 2018 Q4EPS will be adjusted by analysts from 1.04 to 0.57... Hence, no huge disappointments when Q4 will be reported. Furthermore, if sale of projects happens in January, then everyone knows that Q4 results going to be decent (0.57, comparing to the rest of the industry) and Q1/2018 will be huge, about 1$... Therefore I doubt the plunge to 15 level... On top of it, if January 26 Trump decision on 201 leaves Canada and Singapore unaffected, then another positive push for CSIQ... Also, positive solution of BEAT problem (which is done deal) will be pushing up all renewable stocks starting on Monday...
  14. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Article has limited info, I suggest to listen here what Gordon Johnson actually said: start time 47:31 Actually, despite the fact that GJ downgraded the stock, his speech was quite positive about Canadian Solar.
  15. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    GJ said: “You can hold the stock, and if you’re willing to hold it for a year, you’re fine, because I think next year has bright things for them.” - then, if BoD accepts the offer, it means they are not acting in the interests of shareholders. And we elected them to represent us. Obviously the best alternative to "buyout" is simply keep the company public. Projects will be sold anyway, if not in Q4 then Q1... What is the problem? - delay is not company related it is simply long procedure plus Holidays...
  16. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    And what is GJ conslusion/feeling, is it all going to end quickly or the process will take 10-15 months?
  17. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    yes, it is back to normal now... but all morning it was in chinese without investor related info...
  18. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Also, something happened to Canadian solar website, it is all in Chinese now and no more investor-related information...https://www.canadiansolar.com/ Probably first signs of artificial destruction of its investment attractiveness...
  19. Solar News

    More details: https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2017/12/14/deal-cut-to-fix-anti-renewable-beat-provision-in-tax-bill/
  20. Solar News

    Deal Reached to Shield Renewables From Tax Change, Thune Says https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-14/deal-reached-to-shield-renewables-from-tax-change-thune-says
  21. Trading Solars

  22. Daqo (DQ)

    Aren't you, DQ holders, concerned about extra 40 000 mt of polysilicon on the market in China in 2018, from GCL-Poly, and fast transition of the PV industry to Diamond Wire Saw technology, which reduces silicon usage considerably?
  23. https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/12/13/16768074/tax-bill-renewable-energy-wind-solar-credits
  24. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Energytrend http://pv.energytrend.com/pricequotes.html shows today this: Item High Low Avg Chg Multi-Si Module (Per Watt) 0.40 0.32 0.359 (0 %) Mono-Si Module (Per Watt) 0.41 0.35 0.370 (-0.27 %) Energytrend (0.359/w) versus PV insight (0.31/w)... So who is right? I suggest to read this article: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2017/07/28/taiwan-starts-investigation-on-pvinsights-and-energytrend-for-lowering-prices/ I don't want to continue to argue, it is obvious that prices stopped falling as in 2016, hence the term stabilized...