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MVA

Solar Member
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Everything posted by MVA

  1. Wacker slashes profit forecast amid polysilicon price slump https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/10/16/wacker-slashes-profit-forecast-amid-polysilicon-price-slump/
  2. "NextEnergy Capital cements US play with second asset acquisition". The seller, It is believed to be Canadian Solar and its subsidiary Recurrent Energy, which closed financing on the project last May. https://www.pv-tech.org/news/nextenergy-capital-cements-us-play-with-second-asset-acquisition
  3. I am not exaggerating Klothilde. Raise yourself above Q3/Q4 and look at the whole picture. What I see is FSLR, which is stuck in the niche, where no competition is going on, within that niche. And silicon guys, on the contrary, have entire food chain (ingots, wafers, cells, modules, bifacial modules) where ruthless competition is going on - pushing prices down for components and modules as a result. Different demand/supply cycles, within silicon food chain, allow companies like CSIQ to profit and have margin of up to 25%, even if entire PV market is in downtrend. FSLR is spending all their reserves just to keep up. And the best solution, they found so far, is to increase the size of their module...??? The way I see it: Bifacial format is point-blank shot into FSLR's head. Funny is that this blow came exactly when they finished S6 upgrade. FSLR is also mostly focused on the large scale PV plants, and this is exactly where bifacial is getting more success! With tariffs or without. How much money now FSLR have to spend to make bifacial? Is CdTe (Cadmium/Telluride) technology even make sense to make bifacial?
  4. As per Qu: "Canadian Solar’s bifacial module products are competitive with or without this tariff exemption". Next year tariff in USA is going down to 20% and then to 15%. Bifacial format is becoming fast superior to conventional. First solar doesn't look a success story anymore. They just came to finish line with S6 format upgrade, and look what Chinese have - new headache - Bifacial.... 🙂 O no, we have to spend money again to upgrade all production lines.... Soon there will be no cash left (the only pride of FSLR)... And if miracle happens and DemPres is elected with ideas of H. Clinton to open gate for import of 500 mln panels, then FSLR is done - bankrupt!!! They don't lead anymore, they are trying to keep up. They keep all eggs in one basket, which is US market. Not investable for me!
  5. Dr. Shawn Qu: "But don’t worry, Canadian Solar’s bifacial module products are competitive with or without this tariff exemption" https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/reflections-from-extended-absence-dr-shawn-qu/
  6. MVA

    Solar News

    There are other markets for bifacial too...
  7. MVA

    Solar News

    I think Qu could expect this loophole to be open just temporarily, because domestic producers (SPWR in particular) opposed "201 exclusion" from the start. On May 29/2019 (2 weeks before section 201 exclusion) Canadian solar has signed 3-year module supply agreement with EDF Renewables North America to deliver 1,800 MW of high efficiency poly solar modules (bifacial enhanced wafer BiHiKu (CS3W-PB) and enhanced wafer HiKu (CS3W-P) modules) for projects in the US, Canada, and Mexico. Then on June 13/2019 Bifacial solar modules have been excluded from Section 201 tariffs per a ruling by the office of the United States Trade Representative. Which means that Qu signed agreement including into his cost 201 tariff. But then, having this window of opportunity (June 13 - October 28/2019), I think they pumped bifacials into US warehouses, just enough, to serve this contract (1800 MW) and Recurrent projects in the US, tariff free. So, I don't think he is pissed. May be just a little... 😉
  8. MVA

    Solar News

    In the meantime, guys, if you didn't notice, solar stocks just collapsing... 8 days in a row. :-)))) And, surprisingly, nobody talks about it here...
  9. MVA

    Solar News

    If energy prices in China go down 15% next year, then polysilicon and entire components chain (wafers, cell, modules) will be cheaper again. FSLR is in trouble. Not good :-((( https://www.pv-magazine.com/?utm_source=crossdomain&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=tabs
  10. MVA

    Solar News

    If delisting was the reason for today's sale off, then why FSLR and SPWR dropped the most? Only JKS, SOL and DQ are main candidates for this stupidity, CSIQ is Canadian company, with production sites in many countries (besides China). And Qu is Canadian citizen. As per cnbc comments today, delisting is a total BS, it is impossible to accomplish. They can prohibit pension funds to invest in Chinese companies, and that is all. I still think a number of factors played this week here: Uncertainty about China Q4, End of Q3, and Market repricing, because major indexes reached the new highs last week.
  11. MVA

    Solar News

    I think JKS and DQ is dangerous to touch now, considering this: " Trump administration officials are considering ways to limit U.S. investors’ portfolio flows into China, including delisting Chinese companies from American stock exchanges and putting a limit on U.S. government pension funds’ exposure to the Chinese market." https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/27/white-house-deliberates-block-on-all-us-investments-in-china.html Canadian Solar was smart to become Canadian. 🙂
  12. This is the beginning of FSLR end. First - they exit EPC business, and then - they exit PV modules business. Not good... :-((((
  13. MVA

    Solar News

    This line is very strange: "... most of the subsidized projects allocated this year are in regions that are unworkable after October due to weather conditions" - as though nobody new locations of approved subsidized projects back in July, when everybody was mega jubilant having 45 GW number in mind.... We will see tomorrow or Thursday what www.energytrend.com will say about China market...
  14. MVA

    Solar News

    Apart from Polysilicon, prices for Wafers, Cells and Modules were unchanged this week (08/21/2019). https://www.energytrend.com/solar-price.html
  15. Second 2019 Half Margin Expansion Could Benefit Canadian Solar Investors https://seekingalpha.com/article/4286991-second-2019-half-margin-expansion-benefit-canadian-solar-investors?app=1#alt2
  16. MVA

    Solar News

    Chinese solar manufacturers guiding big hikes in 1H 2019 financial results https://www.pv-tech.org/news/chinese-solar-manufacturers-guiding-big-hikes-in-1h-2019-financial-results
  17. MVA

    Solar News

    Solar panel demand expected to reach 125.5 GW in 2019, TrendForce says https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/07/17/solar-panel-demand-expected-to-reach-125-5-gw-in-2019-trendforce-says/
  18. MVA

    Solar News

    PV indexes show us today that PV Module prices are still relatively stable, but Cell prices are falling. I see two reasons: 1) Tier 1 module producers increase cell share production in their vertical structure. CSIQ as an example. Hence no need to buy more cells than before. 2) Delay in China H2 installation boom. Which now, after National Energy Administration (NEA) finally approved subsidies for solar power projects equal to 22.79 GW, should start very soon. Canadian solar, for instance, having Modules sales in China only at the level of 10%, benefits again, like in 2018, from cells depreciation. Next ER in August will show us again substantial margin increase, because of cheap Chinese components (cells).
  19. MVA

    Solar News

    So, if numbers are correct in this article, China is still going to have min 45GW this year installed... Am I mistaken?
  20. "Canadian Solar's 2019 Earnings Could Fuel An Extended Cyclical Rally" https://seekingalpha.com/article/4271475-canadian-solars-2019-earnings-fuel-extended-cyclical-rally?app=1#alt2
  21. USA grants tariff exemption for imports of bi-facial solar modules! No link yet....
  22. CanadianSolar EPS was UPgraded again by analysts today: 2019 = $2.23 > $2.36 > $2.4/share 2020 = $2.74 > $2.81/share http://investors.canadiansolar.com/index.php/earnings-estimates
  23. MVA

    Solar News

    Price Trend: Market Atmosphere Is Optimistic, and There Will Be No Off-season in 2H19 https://m.energytrend.com/pricequotes.html Scroll down to see the article below price list...
  24. During this weekend CanadianSolar EPS was UPgraded by analysts: 2019 = $2.23 > $2.36/share 2020 = $2.74 > $2.81/share http://investors.canadiansolar.com/index.php/earnings-estimates Probably on Monday stock price upgrades will follow....
  25. CANADIAN SOLAR SET A WORLD RECORD OF 22.28% MULTI-CRYSTALLINE CELL CONVERSION EFFICIENCY http://investors.canadiansolar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/canadian-solar-set-world-record-2228-multi-crystalline-cell
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