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Mark

Solar Investor
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Everything posted by Mark

  1. Given the Issuer’s high quality assets as well as the outstanding $18.47 per Share acquisition proposal (the “Privatization Proposal”) made by Shawn (Xiaohua) Qu, the Issuer’s Chairman and Chief Executive Officer (the “Chairman”), Lion Point continues to believe that the Shares are significantly undervalued and trade at a steep discount to their intrinsic value. Lion Point also believes that there are significant opportunities within the control of the Issuer’s management and Board of Directors (the “Board”) to unlock shareholder value, including operational expense reductions, share repurchases, improved communication with public investors and strategic transactions, including a spin-off or separate listing of the Issuer’s energy business or a sale of the Issuer as a whole or in parts. Following the public announcement of the Privatization Proposal, Lion Point had conversations with several large financial and strategic institutions that expressed an interest in potentially providing financing for the Privatization Proposal, and Lion Point subsequently submitted a preliminary term sheet, subject to due diligence and certain other conditions being met, including the participation of certain third party financing sources, to the Chairman offering to provide a 5-year financing package of up to $250 million to i) backstop the sources of funds arranged by the Chairman for the Privatization Proposal and ii) to make additional funds available to increase the per Share price of the Privatization Proposal, if necessary. Lion Point has also indicated to the Chairman that, based on its discussions with certain financial institutions and strategic investors, it may be able to significantly increase the size of the offered financing subject to governance, diligence and other conditions.
  2. Lion Point Capital says it's had talks with a number of players interested in funding a privatization deal (the chairman/CEO has a bid in at $18.47).
  3. Mark

    Solar News

    Yeah, need China to confirm this soon and put an end to the bleeding. Watching FSLR bleed out on such light volume is like having teeth pulled with my kid's toy pliers.
  4. Mark

    Solar News

    In 2017: 52.83 total, 24.4 of that in 1H17
  5. Mark

    Solar News

    From GTM when China did the original cuts: "The changes could cut China’s capacity forecast by 40 percent, to 28.8 gigawatts from 48 gigawatts, according to GTM Research. Wood Mackenzie projects a cut of 20 gigawatts this year, down to just 30 gigawatts. Other projections put 2018 capacity closer to 35 gigawatts." And per PV-Tech, China has installed 24.3GW in 1H2018.
  6. Mark

    Solar News

    I hear ya... my trading income has gone to zero for the last several weeks. Much of my trading money is stuck at $68 and what i had left is just sitting here doing next to nothing with this low volume summer BS. Really hope these China rumors are confirmed, maybe that'll get things moving... would seem to perk Gordon up, given his 2 ways that he'd consider changing his FSLR view. US tariffs haven't been extended, but trade war is ugly and also tax credits were extended. Should make him happy. And China isn't exactly reversing policy as he said he'd need, but adding 10GW ain't all that bad.
  7. Mark

    Solar News

    So no tariffs/MIPs in India or EU. And possibility of this extra 10GW in China. Anyone feeling like we've seen/are seeing the bottom?
  8. Mark

    Solar News

    https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/08/27/is-china-about-to-add-10-gw-of-unsubsidized-solar/
  9. Mark

    Solar News

    This will give Breitbart a chance to refresh their "solar cooks birds mid-flight" article they put out every few months with some new ammo.
  10. Only been hearing/reading negative on FSLR lately. Got anything positive to say Klothilde?
  11. I’ll give you $9million, but not a penny more.
  12. Let's say things bottom in Q4 as it seems like there's some consensus around. During the last cycle, when did shares prices start rising again? I can obviously see the stock charts, but don't have clear recollection of when ASPs actually bottomed to make the correlation.
  13. https://www.smarteranalyst.com/brief/oppenheimer-thinks-canadian-solar-incs-stock-is-going-to-recover/ “As the solar industry navigates a sizable air pocket in demand due to China policy changes and waits for clarity on India domestic production mandates, CSIQ is making prudent investments in technology which we believe will position it well for the next upcycle. We believe the company’s multi-PERC technology offers the potential to differentiate its product by having efficiency near mono-silicon modules at a meaningful cost advantage. We note CSIQ has historically been a leader in technology-driven cost reduction for silicon module technology and maximizing performance of lower purity materials. This leadership appears to be true again, going through this cycle. We remain constructive on the shares, looking for a bottom in module pricing and capacity during 4Q18.”
  14. Truer words were never spoken. It's been pretty frustrating investing/trading the solars over the years.
  15. Blah. Well, at least the margins are still good. 🙄 Buy up shares, Qu, buy up shares.
  16. So are we worried about their big Turkey supply deal or no?
  17. Bye Bye HQCL... joining the parade. SEOUL, South Korea, Aug. 2, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- Hanwha Q CELLS Co., Ltd. ("Hanwha Q CELLS" or the "Company") (NASDAQ: HQCL), a global leading photovoltaic manufacturer of high-performance, high-quality solar modules, today announced that its board of directors (the "Board") has received a preliminary non-binding proposal letter (the "Proposal Letter"), dated August 2, 2018, from Hanwha Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. ("HSH"), a subsidiary of Hanwha Chemical Corporation incorporated in the Republic of Korea, to acquire all of the outstanding shares of the Company not already owned by HSH in a "going private" transaction (the "Proposed Transaction") for a cash consideration of US$9.00 per American Depositary Share ("ADS", each ADS representing fifty ordinary shares) or US$0.18 per ordinary share. A copy of the Proposal Letter is attached hereto as Exhibit A.
  18. Mark

    Daqo (DQ)

    Agreed, sunnypease. But pete brings up a point I have been interested in... at what price would you sell Klothilde? Is there any price you'd sell or is this a buy it and forget it type purchase for your kids when they're of age? What's your plan if I/we may ask?
  19. Ok, so I read the transcript a couple of times again last night. Are we all feeling like this is just what they said it would be? The weakest/low point of earnings? Obviously if they can't get their technical issue fixed, that's a big problem, but it sounded to me like they weren't terrified of that. The only thing they did say would be a potential risk is that JP project timing that may roll into 2019 and affect FY guidance. But that's typical lumpy solar stuff as they said it wouldn't affect the economics. Of course the market will do what analysts and big money want it to do, but to me, it really sounds like things are on the right track with slight hiccups due to the technical issue and project timing. Project timing, anyone who has been around solar for any amount of time knows that's how it goes. I'm not about to add shares here, but I don't think I'm going to sell anything either. They feel like this is the bottom as far as their business and their contracts are locked up. With cancellation penalties on those, it seems to me like so long as PV prices don't totally collapse, it wouldn't be of great financial benefit to cancel FSLR and buy CSIQ panels or what have you. By the time you pay the penalty, you're cutting into your potential savings. One thing I wish they'd do is put out regular press releases when they have a big module agreement or pick up a project. I didn't know about the South Carolina one... and hell, I even live here in SC. Why they're so quiet about their transactions between conference calls really bugs me and doesn't exactly encourage new investors to come in. Why did we have to wait for that comment about China impact for a full month? What Widmar said could have been said the day or three after the announcement! Their IR sucks.
  20. Yeah, I kinda zoned out when he was explaining the back end issues with that tool. Got a bit in the weeds for me, just tell me its gonna be fixed.. which he seemed to say would be beginning of Q4 I believe. I'm thinking through all of this again and getting a little irritated (with the market/analysts) that not much has changed with the company since it was $80/sh and everyone was in love - in fact, one could say there are actually some positives that have emerged when most of them were expecting total fear. The SE Asia "pause" is to be expected and is a small segment. He didn't give the impression that existing contracts were being re-negotiated or squeezed. Darn near fully booked to end of 2020. I also didn't get the impression that margins would be collapsing or project sales were in limbo/turmoil. I'll have to read the transcript again later, but in a challenging environment it seems like they're perfectly positioned to handle it. I didn't fully grasp the response to the Goldman Sucks question re: shifting the S4 to S6 lines faster. I want to say he didn't say they would be... seemed like they just planned on maintaining the current course. They'll move the stock where they want, but I'm not sure why my $69 shares are worth $50 right now after hearing the call.
  21. I didn't think this was a bad call at all... typical lumpy revenue recognition and some Series 6 hiccups as expected, but by in large I felt that call was ... good? SEems like little has changed after China, except a 'pause' in the global market, but US is still strong. Gotta feed the kids, but I dunno... don't feel like anyone should be in a panic to sell becuase they're dropping the ball. On the contrary, I was re-assured everything is ok after the call. Market probably won't care, since all they care about is lumpy Q earnings, but I'm not terrified the world is ending.
  22. Mark

    Daqo (DQ)

    CHONGQING, China, July 13, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- Daqo New Energy Corp. (NYSE: DQ) ("Daqo New Energy" or the "Company"), a leading manufacturer of high-purity polysilicon for the global solar PV industry, today announced updates to its previous polysilicon and wafer sales guidance for the second quarter of 2018 and reiterates its full year 2018 polysilicon production guidance. The Company estimates that its polysilicon sales to external customers during the second quarter of 2018 will be approximately 3,800 MT to 3,900 MT, as compared to the previous guidance of approximately 5,300 MT to 5,500 MT. The Company sold approximately 2,600 MT of polysilicon during the first two weeks of July and reduced inventory to low levels. The Company produced 5,659 MT of polysilicon during the second quarter of 2018, within the range of its previously announced guidance of 5,600 MT to 5,800 MT. The Company reiterates its full year 2018 polysilicon production guidance of 22,000 to 23,000 MT, which takes into account the impact of annual facility maintenance. The Company also estimates that its wafer sales volume during the second quarter of 2018 amounted to approximately 9.5 million to 10.0 million pieces, as compared to the previous guidance of approximately 15.0 million to 20.0 million pieces. The above updates are mainly attributable to the new solar PV policies issued by the Chinese government on May 31, 2018, which are expected to reduce solar installation quotas and feed-in tariffs in China during the second half of 2018. The policies created significant uncertainty in the domestic solar market and negatively impacted downstream demand. As a result, the Company's customers adjusted production plans and utilization levels, and due to the volatility of polysilicon average selling prices, a significant number of customer orders were not confirmed until the beginning of July. Mr. Longgen Zhang, Chief Executive Officer of Daqo New Energy, commented, "We remain confident in the long-term sustainable growth of polysilicon industry despite the new policies' impact on shipments in the short-term. The new policies created significant uncertainty in the market and disrupted our downstream customer's production plans. At the same time, polysilicon average selling prices saw increased volatility in June but have since stabilized over the past two weeks." "Leveraging our strong cash position, we maintained our production schedule believing that polysilicon ASPs would eventually stabilize and delayed shipments until demand returned in early July. During the first two weeks of July, polysilicon prices stabilized and our shipments returned to normal levels. We are currently running at full production capacity with low levels of inventory, which allows us to reiterate our full year production guidance. The sudden change in policy hasn't impacted our long-term strategic plan to strengthen our leadership position in the industry by further increasing our capacity, improving our cost structure and polysilicon purity."
  23. Mark

    Solar News

    Yingli finally delisted and headed for the pink sheets.
  24. Ya'll are depressing the heck out of me, but I thank you for the number crunching as its the only valuable information I've come to find and trust.
  25. Mark

    Solar News

    I don't think any of this has to do with the add'l 25% tariff because its not really going to affect these guys. I think that's just a smoke screen. That's just another barrier for whatever other tier 2 types may be dumping here, because everyone else jumped ship to SE Asia last time tariffs were put in place. I think FSLR is just trying to find its sea legs again and see where the bottom is. "They" kept us from breaching the VWAP all day after the big tumble this morning. We'd hit the VWAP and each and every time, a sell order would execute and knock us down a few cents. VERY tightly controlled pricing today by the algo(s). I suspect tomorrow we open up down some amount and they'll test the lower end of the range. Just in time for me to hop in the car on friday and drive 6 hours for vacation with the kids and wife. I was hoping we'd find 53 and stick there, just so I could have this garbage off my mind over the next week. I like the declining volume and some of the divergences and the Balance of Power (the Worden version) has kinda indicated that there may be some light accumulation going on the past few days. But who the heck knows, they'll do what they want with it. If this were a normal time, I'd say today and the last few days looks like quiet accumulation. But these aren't normal times, so it could also very well be quiet distribution.
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