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Mark

Solar Investor
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Posts posted by Mark


  1. 14 minutes ago, solarpete said:

    Perhaps more of a calculated risk.  If they make that $1/share Klothilde expects, and if they guide for similar or better for next quarter, they should certainly move back up to the mid-60s.  It's only if they don't meet those lofty expectations that trouble may set in.

    Yeah, that's why I'm not dumping these... unless we lose 50 or something absurd.  Too much big money involved to let this crash without getting out a bit higher first is how I see it.  Nevertheless, they got me holding this bag of one-trick-pony-poo for a while longer.


  2. 33 minutes ago, Klothilde said:

    Also don't forget folks that First has $16 in net cash per share.  Deduct that from the JPM target of $82 and you are left with $66.  Relative to a $5 ttm EPS that's a PE of 13, so where's the problem?

     

    The only way this gets to $82 is if not only does worldwide demand keep improving considerably (which I believe it is), but also only if all those lower tier Chinese companies go belly up to soak up that worthless supply and if FSLR decides to finally get much more geographically diversified.  Probably have to expand capacity at some point soon too.  And get a Dem POTUS, or at least not a POTUS that's gonna try and do all he can do trash renewables.  These stocks aren't loved enough to be cut any slack.  So I guess the theory on this trip back to the mid-50s or lower is they're running it down to shake out weak hands and load up for the big ride to $82?  I'll ride that ride if it happens.  Certainly a sell program has been running for several days.  


  3. On 10/12/2019 at 8:24 AM, Klothilde said:

    First Solar to benefit from bi-facial solar panel tariff, says JPMorgan
     Coster, who reiterates an Overweight rating on First Solar with an $82 price target.

    $82 seems more than laughable, downright criminal to make such a call.  What about 7% off the highs since the bi-facial reversal?  Once again, analysts are bullish, always means sell!


  4. Are there any installers or knowledgeable people in here when it comes to array performance?  We have 2 arrays on our house, all get the same amount of unblocked sun, but one panel in the array is producing a fair amount less than the others.  28 panels, all in what seems like a reasonable range, but one is a sore thumb.  Our installer told me one thing, but I kinda wanted a second opinion just to be sure I wasn't getting dusted off.  If you may have some insights, private message me and I'll give you some production numbers.


  5. 4 hours ago, Klothilde said:

    WTF why is First down?  Should be +20% at least.

    Take your pick of reasons...

    - FSLR still at technological and pricing disadvantage in 2021/22 (sooner?)

    - The market never makes any sense and loves to hate solar

    - Bifacial hasn't even ramped yet, but when it goes, tariffs won't matter because it'll be a more obvious choice

    - FSLR can't ramp up capacity quickly.  They're sold out.  They don't see real benefit and have to hope for safe harbor.

    - China oversupply

    I've traded in and out of FSLR 3 times today already.  I do think it'll reverse, so bout to buy and hold for a bit longer than 45 seconds.


  6. 17 minutes ago, solarpete said:

    I've noticed--including FSLR, I might add.

    I'm just not sure what to make of it.  Solar stocks have experienced similar falls before, for no apparent reason.  Perhaps Chinese demand is indeed not living up to expectations.  But then why is FSLR also falling?  ENPH certainly shot up too far, too fast after last earnings.  But to now fall back to a level BELOW that before those earnings were announced is also completely overdone.

    Whatever the cause, I've shut down my trading for now, until we hit a bottom (wherever that will be) and start rebounding.

    China demand isn't there and the electricity rate adjustment by China won't help either.  FSLR would be falling because they're gonna have to compete in a lower ASP environment... well, that's the market theory, despite being sold out for the next couple years.  I sold off my remaining CSIQ shares today and am also going to the sidelines.  I'll trade a small hand if i see an opportunity (did once today already), but no holding for me.  Disgusted, because I think they're positioned best of any of them right now.  One thing being totally ignored is EU solar growth and Tiawan's ambitions, not to mention other countries which will soak up a lot of that China shortfall.  But with solars and Trump/trade issues, who in their right mind would buy right now is how I see it.  We'll need one of the puppets to come out and say selloff is overdone and global demand will make up for China.  I don't think this selloff is totally justified, but I get why they're doing it.  Wall Street loves trashing the solars.  Qu would be best off taking this private now and listing in China.  Oh and we're in a manufacturing recession.  And Trump seems fine with burning down the castle to make a point or get his family lower interest rates.


  7. 20 minutes ago, solarpete said:

    WOW!!  I certainly hadn't heard anything about THAT!!

    Let's hope the Administration doesn't actually have the POWER to do that....

    Every day gets more and more insane.  I too wondered about their power to do that.  I also wonder how many times Trump tips off his kids and friends to his next stupid idea that will tank the market, so they can short, ride down and then go long and make money on both ends of the tweets.  All the while waiting to further trash the market to get interest rates down so he can benefit from that too.  


  8. 5 minutes ago, solarpete said:

    OK, thanks.  That doesn't sound all that alarming, though.  And there are still no negative headlines.

    If prices stabilize here, and rebound in a couple of days, I'd say this was just another of those random fluctuations we've seen so often before.  If they continue to crater, you may be on to something.

    CSIQ doesn't have a ton of China exposure, so there's that... but given what FSLR is also doing right now, looks like some big fish caught a Chinese cold again and we're re-pricing for lower global ASPs.  The Tiawan news today was nice, they seem to be ready to suck up a lot of modules pretty quick over the next year.  I sold half my position today.  Took pretty major losses.  Still up substantially on the year, but the highs never feel as high as the lows do low.  I just hope I'm not wishing next week that I'd sold the other half too given what happened last time China caught a cold.


  9. Just now, solarpete said:

    What makes you say that?  Just the market reaction (which could be due to anything--we all know solars sometimes trade with no rhyme or reason), or do you have some knowledge of what was actually said at the conference?  I haven't seen any headlines coming out of it....

    Sorry, I should have given a reference.  That's from CSIQ's investor relations:  

    SPI just ended. There was talk coming out of it that people were getting ahead of themselves with China volume growth and some sense of sell the news.


  10. Ok, so what's wrong with the solars?  That PURPA crap can't make that much difference eh?  Am I missing some massive news?  This can't just be impeachment jitters... kinda sick to my stomach here recently, been blowing a lot of trades.


  11. 4 hours ago, Klothilde said:

    Could we now have some doomsday predictions with bifacial imports eroding prices in no time, etc., cuz the above report for sure has me fired up. 

    It is indeed good.  Now, hopefully ET/PVI get on the same page this week in regards to CN demand.  Seems like they were conflicted last week.  Any shred of good news would be appreciated.


  12. Haha, ouch, that's Pete 2, Klothilde 0.  Let's hear it queen of solar... take a deep breath... CSIQ should be the easy one you can say something positive about.  No?  Just give us one thing about one company.  We'll all feel a lot better.  I bet Pete will meet you halfway and say all that cash in the FSLR bank account is something to envy.  Good stuff, hah.

     

    • Like 1

  13. 25 minutes ago, Klothilde said:

    I would not worry so much about FSLR, they are reasonably well insulated for the next two years.  Not perfectly, but reasonably well.  I would worry more about Junko and Canadian who will see their ASP dragged down to the gutter over the next coupla quarters if things don't improve.  And the troubling part is costs have little left to give since wafer and cell prices have already been cut to the bone.  It's really sad.

    Not saying it won't cause problems, but both of those CNs are nimble and can adjust pretty quickly.  They can also access capital to do so rather easily.  FSLR is like a freight liner.  Takes them years to make any big moves to adjust to the market.  They'd better get started on Series 7.  Or else diversify and use that savings account to buy up a PV player or two so they've got both greater market exposure and greater geographical mix.  


  14. 1 hour ago, solarpete said:

    OK, anybody got any idea what's going on with DQ today?  Not that I'm complaining, mind you (grin)....

    I was wondering the same... typical DQ low float nonsense move I guess.  I was lucky enough to trade a few of those over the last year, but swore off the stock for that very same reason.  Trading solars is wild enough, but DQ can give me intraday ulcers.  However, its strength has me scaling back into CSIQ at a bit higher price than I expected.

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