Jump to content

H20

Solar Member
  • Content count

    40
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    3

H20 last won the day on January 13

H20 had the most liked content!

Community Reputation

9 Neutral

About H20

  1. Daqo (DQ)

    Page 16 The Cost Curve http://hugin.info/136555/R/2121542/808425.PDF the rectangle at the left corner is Daqo the big rectangle around 129,900 is GCL that don't sell Poly in big quantity but sell wafer and the white rectangles are the germans and the koreans
  2. Daqo (DQ)

    "They are producing at nameplate capacity today with 4500MT a quarter" No, no 4,500 tons a quarter + 25 millions wafer a quarter
  3. Daqo (DQ)

    "With production at 25KMT" That is (nameplate) capacity, now the (nameplate)capacity is 18,000 tons but the (real) capacity is 21,000 tons, so you say that the phase B will go from 21,000 tons to 25,000 tons, LOL "and the need for module manufacturers to make profits" that is the best argument that i have read in my whole life you must go to Germany to Wacker Chemie (80,000 tons) and to the koreans (120,000 tons) to explain to them: I am in love with a module maker, please lower the price to EBITDA = 0 and lower the price until MOFCOM puts a tariff, LOL by the way, Wacker Chemie in Frankfurt quoted @ 10 EV / EBITDA
  4. Daqo (DQ)

    Klothilde is a voice, only a voice, but a voice that expresses very well the most widespread opinion in this sector
  5. Daqo (DQ)

    With the expression "basher team" I mean a collective mind, a crowd mood: I am scared and this stock is scared very easily in the future, in the year 2030, DQ will be a 80,000 tons gorilla, has the Cash Flow to grow, in my Bear Case 2020: $9 EPS, $64 Equity Book Value, 14% ROE and all the producers are toast: the cash cost of the chineses marginal producers (50.000 tons) are $14-16-18 and the Koreans (120,000 tons) and Wacker Chemie (80,000 tons) around $13-$12.5 Poly are toast: EBITDA = 0, and GCL (75,000 tons) don't sell Poly but wafer (I mean that dont sell Poly in big quantiy) Then, Why so afraid Because the module maker EPS record has polluted the entire solar sector of pessimism Example: https://about.bnef.com/blog/chinas-rooftop-solar-boom-2018-deregulation/ And in this "Solar PV Investor Forum" nobody speak about this the mood is of complete defeat because the module maker EPS record has polluted the entire sector of pessimism, because you can phone Meyer Burguer a you have a complete factory
  6. Daqo (DQ)

    Klothilde is a voice, a voice without power in the real world, but is a voice that expresses very well the terrible power of the basher team that scared this stock this stock is a scared little creature look https://pv.energytrend.com/pricequotes.html 150 RMB / 6.4 / 1.17 tax = $20 @ that price DQ would earn $16, $20 and $27 EPS (Earning Per Share 2018, 2019 and 2020) The stock price discount $14 - $12 Polysilicon ASP with 7 P/E This stock will go down beacuse is a small creature in a big city and the basher team is powerfull In Shanghai this stock would be a $240 stock in Frankfurt, Paris and Milan this stock would be a $120 stock but under the power of the Queen of Terror -The Kingdom of Klothilde- it is very difficult to know what to think about this small and trembling creature: DQ has earned $9 EPS in 2017 and maybe will earn $10-$11-$12 EPS in 2018, and $9-$10 in 2019, and $9-$12 in 2020 but this stock will go down beacuse is a small and tembling creature surrounded by monsters
  7. Daqo (DQ)

    mono-wafer, n-wafer and htj https://www.pv-tech.org/news/longi-tripling-monocrystalline-wafer-capacity-to-45gw someone from this forum is able to give me the name of a chinese company capable of producing polysilicon of sufficient quality for mono-wafer and n-wafer, someone is able to tell me the global supply capacity of ultra high purity polysilicon this stock will go down beacuse this stock is loveless and the basher team and the fearmongering is powerful in this forum a have read words and words and words but no one fxxxxxx number I'm tired of so much laziness I throw the towel
  8. Daqo (DQ)

    154 RMB https://pv.energytrend.com/pricequotes.html 154 RMB / 6.4 (USD/CNY) / 1.17 (Tax) = 20.5 $/Kg @ that Price DQ (21,000 tons 2018) would earn $17 EPS But I was talking about the year 2020
  9. Daqo (DQ)

    The Bear Case, 2020 In The Bear Case Polysilicon Price in China for electronic, mono-wafer, n-wafer and heterojunction: $13 DQ ASP: $ 12.5 Polysilicon Price in China for multi-wafer: $ 12 Polysilicon Price in the small international market (pvenergytrend): $10 Polysilicon Price in the small international market (pvinsights): $9.5 In The Bear Case, DQ: $8.5 EPS, $64 Equilty Book Value, 14% RoE The interesting question is that in The Bear Case all the producers are toast, nobody has CashFlow to grow, and DQ (the lowest cost producer) has CashFlow to grow, and maybe in 2030 will be a 90,000 tons gorilla
  10. Daqo (DQ)

    "Does not Daqo make lower quality poly from their FBR process vs the electronics grade poly that is made using Siemens reactors?" FBR ? This is crazy talk Daqo use closed-loop modified Siemens process, and now 40% is electronics grade and in 2020 maybe 80% will be electronics grade Polysilicon Price, What Polysilicon Price January 19, 2018 "As the Lunar New Year approaches, China put several projects on hold (...) https://www.pvinfolink.com/single-post/2018/01/19/Cell-Prices-to-Plummet-as-Off-Peak-Season-Arrives Although the off-peak season has arrived, polysilicon makers are still running at full capacities, leading to continuous tight supply. The average trading price reached RMB 153-158/kg."
  11. Daqo (DQ)

    if this Polysilicon Cycle (2017-2020) [and the next (2021-)] were similar to the previous Cycle (2013-2016) ... then DQ Earning Path (EPS, Earning Per Share) looks like this: 2017: $8.5 2018e: $12 2019e: $10 2020e: $12 [2021e: $14 2022e: $20]
  12. Daqo (DQ)

    Now the Polysilicon Price in China is ... https://www.pvinfolink.com/e-spotprice http://www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-463.html http://pv.energytrend.com/pricequotes.html ... maybe around ... let's say ... $19 maybe $20 (and in the international market the last week the Price go up +6% to $16)
  13. Daqo (DQ)

    The PV Solar Global growth 2012: 100,000 MW + 30 GW + 43% 2013: 138,000 MW +38 GW +38% 2014: 168,000 MW +40 GW + 28% 2015: 229,000 MW + 51 GW +29% 2016: 306,500 MW +77 GW +32% 2017: 401,500 MW +95 GW +31% 2018e: 521,500 MW +120 GW +30% The Polysilicon Consumption for the production of solar wafer will go down : 4.8 g/W (2016) 4.4 g/w (2017) to 4 g/w (2018) The PV Market + The electronic Market need this year 510,000 tons, and now the Supply is around 450,000 tons , it is expected that in the second half of the year the Supply increase by 50,000 tons to meet Demand But there is a little problem: the technological change of the module manufacturers demands a better quality Polysilicon, and there is no enough ultra high purity Polysilicon in 2H2018
  14. Daqo (DQ)

    "China will stay flat in 2018 at best" (Klothilde, 6 hours ago) --- "Get ready for the cliff" (Klothilde, May 11, 2017) "the approaching China cliff" (Klothilde, May 31, 2017) "we have a China demand cliff coming up in a matter of weeks" (Klothilde, Jun 1, 2017) "I really HATE repeating myself, therefore PLEASE put your glasses on when you read. Here AGAIN": The China Cliff is coooooming "The China cliff is here" (Klothilde, Jun 21, 2017) "Looks like China cliff to me" "you can smell China cliff" (Klothilde, Jun 28, 2017) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elephant Porcelain shop https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blindness_(novel) "Polysilicon price another day up" (W20, Jun 9, 2017) "Polysilicon +8% I do not understand Why this quantitatively beautiful Enterprise is loveless. DQ neither buy Polysilicon nor sell Oil. DQ sell Polysilicon. One day maybe the market will understand these simple statements or maybe not, I don't know" (W20, Aug 2, 2017)
  15. Daqo (DQ)

    "this niche with a high price" high price ? yesterday, in 2q2017, Wacker Chemie stored Poly to not sell it because the Price was very low my impression is that in this forum the particular case of Daqo is confused with the whole sector Daqo Poly ASP 2H2015: $16 [Big Oversupply] 1H2016: $15.5 [Oversupply] 2H2016: $15.3 [Oversupply] 1H2017: $15.2 [Oversupply until June, and begin a new Cycle] 2H2017: $17.2 The last Low was around $15 (1H2016-1H2017) and the next Low maybe in 1H2020 will be $14, and Then @ $14 Poly ASP DQ will earn $12 EPS
×