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H20

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H20 last won the day on February 22

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  1. H20

    Daqo (DQ)

    In Frankfurt ... https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/WCH:GR ... Wacker Chemie quotes (175-140) at a Price of 9-8 EV / EBITDA_2017 (and Polysilicon is 33% EBITDA) someone should go to Frankfurt to explain how wrong they are and I agree, beacuse in the Future (when china has ultra high purity polysiclion in big quantities) Then the Polysilicon Price will go to Wacker Chemie EBITDA = 0 --- DQ 6 EV / EBITDA_2017 = $80
  2. H20

    Daqo (DQ)

    The Change From p-Multi (2017) to p-Mono (2018-) and n-Mono (2019-) The chinese p-mono-wafer and n-mono-wafer Makers will need around 200,000 tons, ultra high purity Polysilicon, and there is NO ultra high purity Polysilicon in big quantities in China, the typical chinese polysilicon have no enough quality, so Daqo New Energy is very well positioned Look https://www.pv-tech.org/news/longi-signs-major-us1-billion-polysilicon-supply-contract-with-oci Longi will pay 15.7 $/Kq for 64,000 tons: 2018, 2019 and 2020 because in China there is NO ultra high purity polysilicon in big quantities @ 15.7 $/kg ASP Daqo would earn $8, $11 and $15 EPS in 2018, 2019 and 2020 Remember that Wacker Chemie (80,000 tons ultra high purity Polysilicon) have an agreement with MOFCOM, a minimum import price: neither Wacker nor OCI can sell below cost in China: Wacker Chemie have an agreement with MOFCOM, and OCI knows that if the price goes down a lot MOFCOM will impose a tariff
  3. H20

    Daqo (DQ)

    this is a pure joke https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20180221PD202.html (1) "China's polysilicon output of 24,200 tons in January could support production of 5GWp of solar mono-Si wafers and 6.5GWp of poly-Si ones" LOL, "and" (?) or "or" (!) (2) "hitting highest-ever monthly level" highest-ever monthly level + Low Season And the Polysilicon Price for p-multi-wafer @ RMB 135 and the Polysilicon Price for p-mono-wafer and n-mono-wafer @ RMB 150 LOL (3) .... And so one But Klothilde is the Reality, the Reality Of This World full of fear, hatred and lies Klothilde is the Queen of this World, so we can only kneel and ask for clemency The chamberlam hit the onyx floor and exclaimed: -The Queen of Terror And everyone present trembled
  4. H20

    Daqo (DQ)

    Page 16 The Cost Curve http://hugin.info/136555/R/2121542/808425.PDF the rectangle at the left corner is Daqo the big rectangle around 129,900 is GCL that don't sell Poly in big quantity but sell wafer and the white rectangles are the germans and the koreans
  5. H20

    Daqo (DQ)

    "They are producing at nameplate capacity today with 4500MT a quarter" No, no 4,500 tons a quarter + 25 millions wafer a quarter
  6. H20

    Daqo (DQ)

    "With production at 25KMT" That is (nameplate) capacity, now the (nameplate)capacity is 18,000 tons but the (real) capacity is 21,000 tons, so you say that the phase B will go from 21,000 tons to 25,000 tons, LOL "and the need for module manufacturers to make profits" that is the best argument that i have read in my whole life you must go to Germany to Wacker Chemie (80,000 tons) and to the koreans (120,000 tons) to explain to them: I am in love with a module maker, please lower the price to EBITDA = 0 and lower the price until MOFCOM puts a tariff, LOL by the way, Wacker Chemie in Frankfurt quoted @ 10 EV / EBITDA
  7. H20

    Daqo (DQ)

    Klothilde is a voice, only a voice, but a voice that expresses very well the most widespread opinion in this sector
  8. H20

    Daqo (DQ)

    With the expression "basher team" I mean a collective mind, a crowd mood: I am scared and this stock is scared very easily in the future, in the year 2030, DQ will be a 80,000 tons gorilla, has the Cash Flow to grow, in my Bear Case 2020: $9 EPS, $64 Equity Book Value, 14% ROE and all the producers are toast: the cash cost of the chineses marginal producers (50.000 tons) are $14-16-18 and the Koreans (120,000 tons) and Wacker Chemie (80,000 tons) around $13-$12.5 Poly are toast: EBITDA = 0, and GCL (75,000 tons) don't sell Poly but wafer (I mean that dont sell Poly in big quantiy) Then, Why so afraid Because the module maker EPS record has polluted the entire solar sector of pessimism Example: https://about.bnef.com/blog/chinas-rooftop-solar-boom-2018-deregulation/ And in this "Solar PV Investor Forum" nobody speak about this the mood is of complete defeat because the module maker EPS record has polluted the entire sector of pessimism, because you can phone Meyer Burguer a you have a complete factory
  9. H20

    Daqo (DQ)

    Klothilde is a voice, a voice without power in the real world, but is a voice that expresses very well the terrible power of the basher team that scared this stock this stock is a scared little creature look https://pv.energytrend.com/pricequotes.html 150 RMB / 6.4 / 1.17 tax = $20 @ that price DQ would earn $16, $20 and $27 EPS (Earning Per Share 2018, 2019 and 2020) The stock price discount $14 - $12 Polysilicon ASP with 7 P/E This stock will go down beacuse is a small creature in a big city and the basher team is powerfull In Shanghai this stock would be a $240 stock in Frankfurt, Paris and Milan this stock would be a $120 stock but under the power of the Queen of Terror -The Kingdom of Klothilde- it is very difficult to know what to think about this small and trembling creature: DQ has earned $9 EPS in 2017 and maybe will earn $10-$11-$12 EPS in 2018, and $9-$10 in 2019, and $9-$12 in 2020 but this stock will go down beacuse is a small and tembling creature surrounded by monsters
  10. H20

    Daqo (DQ)

    mono-wafer, n-wafer and htj https://www.pv-tech.org/news/longi-tripling-monocrystalline-wafer-capacity-to-45gw someone from this forum is able to give me the name of a chinese company capable of producing polysilicon of sufficient quality for mono-wafer and n-wafer, someone is able to tell me the global supply capacity of ultra high purity polysilicon this stock will go down beacuse this stock is loveless and the basher team and the fearmongering is powerful in this forum a have read words and words and words but no one fxxxxxx number I'm tired of so much laziness I throw the towel
  11. H20

    Daqo (DQ)

    154 RMB https://pv.energytrend.com/pricequotes.html 154 RMB / 6.4 (USD/CNY) / 1.17 (Tax) = 20.5 $/Kg @ that Price DQ (21,000 tons 2018) would earn $17 EPS But I was talking about the year 2020
  12. H20

    Daqo (DQ)

    The Bear Case, 2020 In The Bear Case Polysilicon Price in China for electronic, mono-wafer, n-wafer and heterojunction: $13 DQ ASP: $ 12.5 Polysilicon Price in China for multi-wafer: $ 12 Polysilicon Price in the small international market (pvenergytrend): $10 Polysilicon Price in the small international market (pvinsights): $9.5 In The Bear Case, DQ: $8.5 EPS, $64 Equilty Book Value, 14% RoE The interesting question is that in The Bear Case all the producers are toast, nobody has CashFlow to grow, and DQ (the lowest cost producer) has CashFlow to grow, and maybe in 2030 will be a 90,000 tons gorilla
  13. H20

    Daqo (DQ)

    "Does not Daqo make lower quality poly from their FBR process vs the electronics grade poly that is made using Siemens reactors?" FBR ? This is crazy talk Daqo use closed-loop modified Siemens process, and now 40% is electronics grade and in 2020 maybe 80% will be electronics grade Polysilicon Price, What Polysilicon Price January 19, 2018 "As the Lunar New Year approaches, China put several projects on hold (...) https://www.pvinfolink.com/single-post/2018/01/19/Cell-Prices-to-Plummet-as-Off-Peak-Season-Arrives Although the off-peak season has arrived, polysilicon makers are still running at full capacities, leading to continuous tight supply. The average trading price reached RMB 153-158/kg."
  14. H20

    Daqo (DQ)

    if this Polysilicon Cycle (2017-2020) [and the next (2021-)] were similar to the previous Cycle (2013-2016) ... then DQ Earning Path (EPS, Earning Per Share) looks like this: 2017: $8.5 2018e: $12 2019e: $10 2020e: $12 [2021e: $14 2022e: $20]
  15. H20

    Daqo (DQ)

    Now the Polysilicon Price in China is ... https://www.pvinfolink.com/e-spotprice http://www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-463.html http://pv.energytrend.com/pricequotes.html ... maybe around ... let's say ... $19 maybe $20 (and in the international market the last week the Price go up +6% to $16)
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