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H20

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H20 last won the day on November 12

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About H20

  1. Daqo (DQ)

    Daqo New Energy (DQ) Earning Per Share (EPS) imo 2017e (20,000 tons): $8.5 EPS 2018e (21,000 tons): $9 EPS 2019e (23,000 tons): $8 EPS 2020e (30,000 tons): $8-$15 EPS 2030e (90,000 tons): $30 EPS This are Estimates with the Poly price going down Clearly there is no communication between Frankfurt and New York http://finance.google.com/finance?q=ETR%3AWCH&hl=en&ei=tG0lWukHgo9QzeeBsAY Wacker Chemie (the actual Gorilla and may be a marginal producer in the Future): +2% Daqo New Energy (the lowest cost producer with ample room to grow): -20%, wow, -20% for H20 Crazy world made of small worlds locked in on themselves
  2. Daqo (DQ)

    Daqo was in the Depths of the Mariana Trench https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariana_Trench And is emerging, rising to the Surface of the Sea looking for the air let's see 2.2 + 1.2 + 2.2 + 2.8 (4q17e) => $8 EPS 10 x 8 = $80 1.2 + 2.2 + 2.8 + 3 (1q18e): $9 EPS 10 x 9 = $90 now the year 2020 is a bit very far away IMHO First we have to see where is the stock in March of the next year (2018) when the Earning of the fourth quarter (4q17) are release
  3. Daqo (DQ)

    "the market is forward looking" yes, yes, but, but in a commercial Enterprise ... with + abundant FreeCashFlow (FCF = CashFlow - Capex - working capital needs) + RoA (Return on Asset) or RoCE (Return on Capital Employed) > 20% + stable revenues and stable margin you can run a Discounted FCF with +3 years Estimates + Projection 7 years in an industrial Enterprise ... the Horizon is + 1 year DQ in Shanghai would be a $270-$180 Stock now, and this is not a joke, not an exaggeration, but I mean it completely seriously, look at Longi Green Energy (601012): this is love but this game is played in New York
  4. Daqo (DQ)

    in the numbers above there is an error ... but I think the idea is understood --- EPS_4q17e imho: $2.8 (4.5 K tons @ 18 + 25 M wafer @ 0.62, ca. 20% gross margin) I would like to read other Estimates
  5. Daqo (DQ)

    2017: 20,000 tons 2018: 21,000 tons http://pv.energytrend.com/pricequotes.html http://daqo.gotoip1.com/Public/Uploads/4016461475a0abb528ba9c.pdf You can make your own EPS (Earning Per Share) Estimate Example, 4q17e https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/DQ/analystestimates 5 K tons @ 18 ASP - 5 K tons @ 8.95 Cost = 45.25 + 10% Wafer margin (0.10 x 25 x 0.62 = 1.55) = 46.8 Gross Profit - 4 SGA - 4 i = 38.8 Net before Tax - 38.8 x 0.18 Tax = 31.8 Net / 10,5 = $3 EPS (that means $12 EPS potential peak Earning) but, look the interesting question 5.25 K tons @ 14 ASP - 5.25 K tons @ 8.5 Cost = 28.875, +1.55 = 30,425 Gross Profit -4, -4 = 22.425 Net before Tax, -0.18 x 22.425 = 18.38 Net / 10,5 = $1.75 EPS and that means $7 EPS sustainable Earning (remember that in the past [2H15/1q16] there was a great oversupply, and now the market is tight, DQ Low [2H15/1q16] was 10 x EPS_2015) (TSL Top was 10 x peak EPS) (CSIQ Top was 10 x peak EPS)
  6. Trading Solars

    (1) because play at home in Frankfurt (Daqo in Shanghai would be now a $ 180 stock) (2) because Wacker (80,000 tons, Germany) and OCI (75,000 tons, Korea) are the two Gorillas on the top of the hill https://www.pv-tech.org/news/bnef-raises-chinas-solar-installation-forecast-to-54gw Wacker+OCI are 40% of the Market and was 99% in China high purity Market, if the Price go down ... store, that is the very very interesting question about Daqo, the two Gorillas can not attack Daqo look, page 15: http://hugin.info/136555/R/2101124/796563.PDF the rectangle at the left corner is Daqo the Polysilicon Price (2018-2019) can gow to $14 one quarter, one quarter, no a year And if go down to $14 one year the four quarters -the four quarters- then DQ wiil earn $6 EPS (3) because in an industrial enterprise you must look at the EBITDA fair Value for an industrial Enterprise = 10 x Expected-and-Sustainable EPS (that means sustainable RoE) Yes, but also 6 x EBITDA - 1 x Debt + 1 x Cash the Wacker Price now is may be around 8.5 EV / EBITDA (EV = Market Cap + Debt) Wacker is a bit overvalued but not as much as it seems looking at the P/E ratio DAQO, 6 EV / EBITDA = $ 80 6 x EBITDA (169) - 1 x Debt (217) + 1 x Cash (61) = 858 / 10,6 = $ 80
  7. Trading Solars

    you should go to Frankfurt, to Wacker (WCH) pit to explain them that they should not pay 30 x EPS_ttm http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=DE%3AWCH&insttype=Stock
  8. Trading Solars

    Polysilicon Price and Daqo EPS $18 - $18 - $18 - $18 = $12 EPS $14 - $14 - $14 - $14 = $6 EPS $18 - $16 - $16 - $18 = $10 EPS and 2018 is more tight because the Mono Wafer Market need Ultra-High-Purity Polysilicon, and now the Mono Wafer are maybe a 30 GW Market, but next year (2H18) will be a 50 GW Market "If we do some calculation, all the imports from international supplier like OCI or Wacker, if 100% used, still cannot meet that requirement (...) So our company is positioned for mono wafer position very well." (Gongda Yao, Daqo New Energy Corporation)
  9. Trading Solars

    "Jaso seemed to suggest in Q2 that they hope to see it in the $16 range" $18 Poly = EPS $12 $16 Poly = EPS $8.5 My estimates are: 2017e (20,000 tons) > $8 (4q: 2.9) 2018e: $7 - $9 2019e: $8 - $10 2020e (30.000 tons): $7 - $14
  10. Daqo (DQ)

    (Benjamin Graham in memoriam) E1 = Equity, Book Value E2 = Earning x 10 E3 = Market Cap If you speak about "Equity, Book Value" you must speak about RoE on the contrary you say nothing at all 10 x RoE x Equity Book Value = EPS x 10 RoE 10 = Economic Profit = 0 and P / B = 1 and P / E = 10 RoE 20 = Economic Profit > 0 and P / B = 2 and P / E = 10 100 years ago the New York Stock Exchange discovered that it was more convenient to talk about Earning Earning_1 = Earning Earning_2 = Owners Earning, FreeCashFlow Earning_3 = Economic Profit --- Benjamin Graham Number = P/B x P/E Normal Benjamin Graham Number = 20 https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/graham-number.asp
  11. Daqo (DQ)

    10 x sustainable EPS is a fair Value for a industrial enterprise 6 x EBITDA - 1 x Debt + 1 x Cash is a fair Value for a industrial enterprise I am planning to hold until I see a fair Valuation $ 70 now or $ 200 in 2030 Daqo New Energy have room to growth in the long run (-2030-2040) I'm puzzled with DQ Price
  12. Daqo (DQ)

    Daqo New Energy, DQ Earning Path 2017e_EPS $ 8.5 2018e_EPS $ 7 - $ 9 2019e_EPS $ 7 - $ 10 2020e_EPS $ 7 - $ 14
  13. Daqo (DQ)

    Very, very Strong Just Reported FQ3 17 https://www.estimize.com DQ Reported Earnings 2.35 Estimize Consensus (15 estimates weighted) 1.44 Estimize Mean (15 estimates averaged) 1.37 Your Estimate 1.26 6 x EBITDA (169) - 1 x Debt (217) + 1 x Cash (61) = 858 / 10,6 = $ 80 nice http://daqo.gotoip1.com/Public/Uploads/4016461475a0abb528ba9c.pdf
  14. Daqo (DQ)

    "For your potential estimates of 12 EPS by 2020, are you attributing the increase to the manufacturing capacity expansion?" Yes the Nameplate Capacity or Nominal Capacity is 18,000 tons, but the effective capacity was 20,000 tons and is now 21,000 tons https://solarindustrymag.com/daqo-new-energy-plans-ramp-polysilicon-production so 30,000 tons maybe are 33,000 tons in 2020 "Are you assuming Polysilicon prices will remain stable or are you foreseen increase in Poly prices also?" No IMHO the Polysilicon Price is no sustainable above 18 or below 12 > 18 the Module maker dont buy < 12 the Polysilicon maker dont sell the Polysilicon Price now is ... maybe ... $ 18 - $ 17.5 http://www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-463.html (china polysilicion price - 1.5 ) 150 rmb / 6.6 (USD/CNY) / 1.17 tax [thanks Klotilde] = $ 19,4 - 1,5 = $ 18 http://pv.energytrend.com/pricequotes.html (pv energytrend - 0.5) 18.7 - 0.5 = $ 18.2 http://pvinsights.com/indexUS.php (pvinsights + 1 ) 16.6 + 1 = $ 17.6 if the Polysilicon Price go down to $ 14.5 in 2018 DQ EPS = $ 6 That is the interesting question from my point of view, and if the Polysicilon Price go down to $ 12.5 in 2020 DQ EPS = $ 7
  15. Daqo (DQ)

    Hello Tupapa my thoughts: 2017e_EPS (20,000 tons): $ 7 2018e_EPS (21,000 tons): $ 6 - $ 8 2020e_EPS (33,000 tons): $ 6 - $ 12 DQ fair Value IMHO: $ 60 because $ 6 EPS is sustainable in the long run and is sustainable in the long run because OCI (Korean, 60,000 tons) and Wacker Chemie (Germany, 80,000 tons) and GCL (China) and ... and ... and ... look, page 15: http://hugin.info/136555/R/2101124/796563.PDF the rectangle at the left corner is Daqo
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