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heliostat

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Everything posted by heliostat

  1. Solar News

    today 26th BMO is NEP Q3, big drop recently - Florida effect? or buying opportunity?
  2. Trading Solars

    On a different tack noticing that NYLD moving up consistently past few sessions now $19.15 - on increased volume. ?news leaking ahead of imminent sale announcement?
  3. Thanks, I did look at ENB and can see its attraction clearly but too much Bakken etc for me personally. I have been looking at DENERG recently as offshore wind now cheaper than new gas in some markets, also VWS a lot of growth .
  4. You are right , sorry for getting carried away without reading it in more depth. BTW One of the reasons I have not held NEE is their exposure to Florida climate change events /sea level etc (despite FPL appearing v positive based on annual NEE reports) and the market sentiment as you have pointed out earlier linking yieldco and yieldco parents . This may be a bit esoteric at this point but a potential longer term concern. That said tipping points of investor /public concern may occur unexpectedly (eg solar run up from ~2007 , before crash 2012). I wonder if this connection to florida indirectly for NEP (real or imagined) will become less important for NEP over time as its scale grows? If it dips I would see it as buying opportunity, same with SUNIVA . How do you see Suniva playing out for yieldcos currently?
  5. Just saw another raising $1.1Billion from NEP - something big coming I wonder.
  6. Hi Robert, just wondering any thoughts on why the 2% drop yesterday? Delayed reaction to Irma?? Any news of big plant damage? Or via concern for FPL component of NEE?? good buying opportunity as I see it. News of prompt closure of $300m issue should be good news? Any ideas?.
  7. Solar News

    A renewable grid asap will fix that, plus public transport and bicycles at least in cities.
  8. Very interesting to see the implied SP value range of the options they took out as well.
  9. I'm wondering if there is positive news re NEP acquiring assets from NYLD or CAFD that is starting to leak? NYLD allowing for ex-div timing holding up , will be interesting to see if starts to move in next few sessions. The other aspect would be larger investors waking up to how good a stock this is. I dont have access to parcel level trading data - does anyone know the scale of the individual purchases on those big up days - are big players involved?
  10. I wanted to thank you Robert as your articles on SA really introduced me to NEP which is now a key holding. Not as exciting in the short term as the panel makers - but after some previous experiences I'm OK with that :-)
  11. NRG Yield, Inc. (NYLD)

    Any thoughts as to possible valuation of NYLD under this 50-100% sale and likley shareprice translation. Interesting to compare how PEGI is placed with setup having both money now via pension fund and developer under same roof. That would look like an ideal outcome. I wonder if NRG would be thinking of a 'passive' 50% (seems unlikely) or active 50% . Active 50% could mean NRG becomes the Devco and the other 50% is the 'pension fund' as a source of cash for projects and NRG gets to free up a chunk of cash and participate in renewables profitably which are the only game in town for utilities going forward. Getting out of renewables completely (100% sale option) IMO seems a crazy idea unless Elliott etc is just carving up NRG as a short term value extraction play. Selling 100% would be an option I'm guessing only if someone offering massive price arrived on the scene. If management was a bit sharper something like the PEGI set up would be interesting . So how much is it worth and who will buy?
  12. Trading Solars

    Thanks, much appreciated.
  13. Trading Solars

    Interesting times... Robert , do you have a take on the impact for Yieldcos of the Paris exit and petition? I understand that for wind hence PEGI might be positive, as well as turbine makers , GE, also smaller US wind players , vestas (has been consistently rising past 18 months). Gamesa? etc Re NEP and NYLD I'm wondering if they will largely continue on current trajectory largely ? unscathed as the economic and legislative drivers (eg california and like-minded states) pushing renewables are strong and developers have to deliver an IRR acceptable to Yieldco's or they wont pick up the projects. Maybe yieldcos will buy more wind till 2020? The earlier discussion re PPAs seems right - the rate of cost decrease for renewables reflected in PPA paid by end client will slow, maybe stabilise /small rise for a while. But as new power plants are needed and only a very brave or ideological executive would lock in a 20 year carbon based electricity ppa (and how many developers would build a fossil plant with a 40 year life expectancy or be able to finance it these days?) 19 Banks have so far turned down Adani's massive Australian proposed coal mine. They will all know the move to renewables is unstoppable and wont bet against the future. ***Because Nov 4 2020** is not that long away. Maybe an opportunity for some well placed option strategies. Appreciate hearing your thoughts as your take on yieldcos unrivalled .
  14. Hi Everyone, just saw two Form 4's showing PEGI insiders selling at $23 a few days ago, not big volume but nevertheless.....
  15. Solar News

    Thanks very much Explo and Robert for your thoughtful responses. Slowing grid decarbonisation through uncertainty - many tens of thousands of jobs - to benefit few thousand (?) workers in US panel fabs and raise costs to US end users seems unwise, although wind benefits. The time frame to build and fully ramp domestic US production I'm guessing would be ~24? months minimum from a decision on the petition and gives thin film a big free kick and limited competition - maybe to have it all changed again as once ramped - at artificially high prices - it would only be about a year then till next election, not to mention the midterms. If european tariff regime dropped then rest of world gets flooded with cheap panels from SE ASIA /CHINA plants whilst US consumers locked into high prices and reduced competition as the pressing need to decarbonise mounts. Thats the bitter irony of protectionist policies. The money spent overpaying panels means slowing decarbonisation, capital misallocation and investment delays, setting the bigger system up for failure as investment to change old grid slows/ climate change impacts persist/ until a crisis such as happened recently in Australia with state wide blackouts ensues due to policy vacuum slowing and distorting investment . Is the petition decision due in about 100 days now ~ mid August? Robert do you think your thesis on NEP sp growth is impacted much, maybe more likely at the 12% rather than 15% level of div increase? feeling a bit over solar at the moment....
  16. Solar News

    Hi all, wondering what the collective wisdom is re yieldcos and (1) the petition and (2) NRG potential 5Gw renewables sell off or both ?{admission - long NEP and NYLD} Enertuition on SA has an article re devco situations re petition but no mention of Yieldcos. I'm assuming drop downs will still occur but cost might be higher and unless PPA $ rise then lower IRR for yieldcos so presumably a general slow down , lower prices bid for projects or higher PPA or all three? Is wind preferentially boosted , hence an uptick for PEGI? What happens if CAFD sold and FSLR suddenly gangbusters? Which yieldco gets lucky or will it be using SUNE style warehouses? Back with yieldcos - If NRG does dump 5GW renewables and NYLD becomes freestanding then ?BAM ?Berkshire ?Total etc? (?Pensions /greenbonds money?) pick up the assets either directly or via partnering with yieldco's? Maybe thats the cryptic comment re 'seeking partners' in NYLD recent statements (already pointed out on this site) . In any event thinking the more stable yieldco's should continue to be stable and may either get some catalyst if partner arrives or at least provide steady dividend but ?lower growth in dividend if acquisitions slow? If petition + NRG selloff happens could be interesting??? All thoughts welcomed !
  17. NRG Yield, Inc. (NYLD)

    Just wondering if BAM might be the play if such a big renewable portfolio seems likely to be up for sale? They specialize in buying cheaply and have very deep pockets??? Hope you are enjoying vacation Robert - missing your thoughts on PEGI Q1 and now NYLD :-)
  18. Trading Solars

    Agree - not very rational the FSLR movement, I think very much driven by emotion and possibly the sense that tariff etc might help them. I noticed on the latest Form 4 exec selling at $35, might be for other reasons but when I observe this at FSLR usually a SP drop is coming. Trading in a high volatilty market means a lot of time in front of screens and playing against the high frequency algorithms. I think your articles and analysis re high quality yieldcos (and high low risk compounding returns ) is very smart.
  19. NRG Yield, Inc. (NYLD)

    Thanks. I cant find the details but noted that the 12 month high is different and lower for the NYLD.A and share count lower and delta vs NYLD not constant so I will avoid. Nothing on NYLD site , might need to email lR .
  20. NRG Yield, Inc. (NYLD)

    Wondering about NYLD vs NYLD.A which one is best? The spread between the two at closing was NYLD.A 40 cents cheaper. The beta on NYLD.A looks higher, (1.2 vs 0.98) which is telling although dividend stated to be the same. Is NYLD.A just more thinly traded ?? Do the voting or security holder rights differ?
  21. NRG Yield, Inc. (NYLD)

    Thanks Robert much appreciated, might be a good entry.
  22. NRG Yield, Inc. (NYLD)

    Thanks Robert, I look at parents and yieldcos as a pair these days after sune complex misadventures. My thinking currently is that if Dev 2.0 100m financed by equity and enables recycled growth to hit acquisition target the PEGI payout should as you pointed out drop to say 86% or similar. If a 6% yield at that point and current div steadyish that should be SP 27.50 approx (as you and others/company calculated ). (ie approx +25% from current) Whereas on NYLD at say $16.85 a 5.5% return (current 1.08 annualised) as you say (or more to to compensate for NRG issues) would be approx sp 19.60-$20.00 in 2018 (ie approx +16.3% from current SP taking lower end of range). [these are rough calculations and quote some of your work]. The difference as you say is in the number of steps , hence failure points for PEGI to get there. However the potentially larger liquidity NYLD might have is a countervailing factor going forward. Will the little guys get squeezed as space matures?
  23. NRG Yield, Inc. (NYLD)

    Is the recent NYLD drop just about market reaction to Q1 results, although seemed in line or anything else? Have looked but cant find anything obvious? Any info? Any NRG issues? The sensitivity of tNYLD portfolio returns in the earnings call transcript to wind/curtailment was interesting moving from P25 to P 75 leads to +/- $5m and from memory an average 5% fluctuation in either direction can trigger this, so they need one quarter of +5% to counterbalance the Q1 underperformance , although interestingly the CEO/CFO (forget which) did say annual guidance on track with some potential upside which sounds overall positive. Robert I'm wondering about your take on NRG the parent itself , is it basically coming out of trouble currently? Thanks Robert for the reminder re NEP record date , rebalanced from PEGI to NEP recently. Wondering how market will go for PEGI Q1 /Dev2.0 on Tuesday, drifting at the moment.
  24. Thanks Robert very useful thoughts. I read your comments on NYLD , thinking about NEP comparison, half the price of NEP is attractive but NEE seems a lot stronger parent than NRG . I realise NYLD is advising 16% div growth next two years which ~ matches or slightly better than NEP. How do you see NYLD vs NEP after 2020? NYLD has dropped to $16.75 AH ?entry?
  25. Hi Robert, Thank you for excellent article re PEGI whitepaper. Wondering from your research for that article how you see potential returns of NEP VS PEGI over next 5 years assuming Pattern Dev 2.0 proceeds and no major hickups? You calculate approx $27 for PEGI on 6% return (is this post near term equity raise to finance the 100m?) and can see in your analysis how the 100m into Dev2.0 projects can lead to cash flow for acquisition of the next 2.3GW. What I'm wondering is what kind of 2020 SP valuation this might imply for PEGI? Beyond 2020 does this Dev2.0 investment then compound or hits a ceiling , limiting growth after that , assuming ppa get less generous etc? This is a long way of saying I am trying to weigh up NEP 2022 SP projection you have made previously vs 2022 PEGI SP potential if Dev2.0 proceeds sucessfully. I am planning to hold both longterm but can add a bit to either position at this time and working through this decision. Thanks in advance.
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