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Everything posted by heliostat

  1. Any ideas why NEP +4.6% and with the IR rise? I hold this and think it is trading well below value based on dividend stream but wondering if some catalyst I have missed?
  2. Also can use investor.firstsolar.com/sec.cfm and set up sec filing alerts etc , have this kind of alert set up for key stocks, the nasdaq site always gives me trouble loading.
  3. Index funds will shed them, timing based on rebalancing dates. Form4 (mentioned already in FSLR discussion) has exec selling at ~$32.50 , only additions seemed to be the stock they get 'for free'.
  4. FSLR sell looks on, lots of Form 4's now show selling around $32. Last time Form4's were selling was at ~$44 and then ....went to $28. How low this time?
  5. Thanks Robert , very good article. Feel more comfortable if PEGI payout ratio moves lower over time. I think the $100m for devco could be strategic if not too soon (say 2018-19 ) and preferably with more visibility re sponsor finances (unlikely to be forthcoming) as the sheer volume of solar/wind going forward then will I suspect float most boats at a minimum and so far feel managment quality at PEGI is good. Assume this greater dynamism despite your reservations underlies your portfolio tilt to PEGI relative to NEP?
  6. Thanks for these comments. In my case there is a tax treaty which reduces the withholding tax to 15% but in the case of tax free dividend there should be no tax deducted. I received a TERP dividend (?late 2015 - cant remember) which was called a 'distribution ' electronically and no tax deducted. The form 8937 that PEGI has on the website (plus their K10 ) confirms non taxable, except that the brokers custodian chose not to accept the 8937 arguing it was based 'on reasonable assumptions' (allowed by the IRS) but would only become incontrovertible once annual P&L known. Its an annoyance and an issue for all the Yieldco's i know and all tax advantaged dividends as have to wait .......till annual P&L, which makes the costs of the Form 8937 seem a waste. If anyone knows an authoritative statement from IRS on whether custodians /brokers have to act in good faith on 8937 statements would be useful. I have scoured IRS website but cant find the killer quote to send to custodian. If anyone has gone through lodging a claim with IRS for refund of 'overwithholding' as they term it -love to hear !
  7. Thanks, looking forward to the next installment in your SA series of articles .
  8. If its OK to ask this - any non us PEGI holders here? Wondering if your broker /custodian accepted the Form 8937 (ROC) and as a result did not deduct withholding tax ? or do you have to get it back later (?when?) .
  9. Agree. Garland hinting at good things to be announced on investor day and also with a credible plan going into 2020. The southern cross transmission line and the likely move to capture some developer upside in a low risk (sounding ) entry via Pattern Dev , plus lack of IDRs and management that seems to be well focussed are all positives IMO. I used the dip to average down as well.
  10. Can you share current thinking based on your portfolio allocation heavy PEGI VS NRG/NYLD , what tips the balance ?
  11. The Moodys rationale is behind the paywall, anyone have access?
  12. Hi Everyone, What do you think of the $100Billion from ARAMCO proceeds to be pumped into renewables story? That would be placements and takeovers ? How else could it be done ? Could some of the jump in SP be strategic stakes being built for this? has been some action on FSLR and PEGI lately, maybe more? Wondering when next beneficial ownership statements are out ?especially CSIQ? From fundamentals /event driven solarco SP not v convincing to me atm but what about from the perspective of the people who brought us the dot com bubble? Load up, pump .....
  13. Thank you for comments Robert. How useful do you think a discounted cash flow model based on rate of dividend growth is as a methodology (+ fundamentals /catalysts) for stocks like PEGI and NEP, NYLD or other yieldcos in determining correct value and/or entry points? (ie will standard dividend portfolio analysis be applicable here to determine price points)? Trying to avoid FOMO re solarco (but also not miss the yieldco boat - already have some, looking to add) as current solarco SP gains last few days seems hard to explain ,as you have noted, although yieldco SP action much more muted. What is going on in enewables ? Talking to friends in the funds management area they talk a lot about 'inflection point' for solar etc but realities of ASP/wafers costs etc and debt servicing dont go away. For new entrants investing other people's money does low comparative P/E like CSIQ etc look cheap?
  14. Thought your article Robert on SA today re NEP vs CAFD was terrific, much appreciated. Cant wait for the next installment. You have marvellous grasp of the detail and make the picture much easier to follow, many thanks. Just wondering if NEE owns such a big piece of the NEPOpco how NEE stacks up vs NEP in your opinion ? I will read up on NEE. Have you thought of an article comparing parentco BAM/BEP vs NEE vs ?HASI? vs Total vs Pattern Dev etc? I like the lack of IDR with PEGI you pointed out in earlier article and thinking that Southern Cross transmission etc you linked above might one day be like the gas pipeline transmission component of NEP. PEGI strikes me as having genuine ambitions, trying to see if any big catalysts coming (?GLBL wind assets?). I'm still trying to understand what Pattern Dev is really all about (hard as private company) and their longer term ambitions re PEGI. The announcement a few weeks back of as I recall cooperation (Pattern Dev and PEGI) for larger financing seems positive.
  15. I'll take that as a no! Fair enough :-)
  16. Thanks for the comments. Anyone heard more about PEGI trying to bid for assets/sune yieldcos? BAM is expected to win but why enter if not serious, whats the plan? Sorry cant find any links to flesh this out but sure I read something about 8 weeks back cant access now. Do we know where Pattern Dev gets its money?
  17. Thanks for your response Robert, BTW just saw Franklin Resources has now 6% of FSLR
  18. Hi, first post (topic sits across yieldco and solarco forums so thought here as good as any) and wanted to thank everyone for interesting discussion/site. I hold PEGI as a stable dividend and placeholder till solarco (FSLR/JKS/CSIQ) /china /politics etc clearer. Intrigued by your shift from PEGI to CSIQ just now , just as some volume /blackrock etc happening for PEGI. Is this rebalance based on CSIQ factors (Q4 report/CSIQ bottom? etc ) or PEGI factors ? I'm thinking the short term upside to PEGI might be more than CSIQ given political issues/solar glut ? Why not wait for FSLR bottom? Would welcome your thoughts on this as I'm trying to unravel the same question.