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Everything posted by heliostat

  1. Thanks, much appreciated.
  2. Interesting times... Robert , do you have a take on the impact for Yieldcos of the Paris exit and petition? I understand that for wind hence PEGI might be positive, as well as turbine makers , GE, also smaller US wind players , vestas (has been consistently rising past 18 months). Gamesa? etc Re NEP and NYLD I'm wondering if they will largely continue on current trajectory largely ? unscathed as the economic and legislative drivers (eg california and like-minded states) pushing renewables are strong and developers have to deliver an IRR acceptable to Yieldco's or they wont pick up the projects. Maybe yieldcos will buy more wind till 2020? The earlier discussion re PPAs seems right - the rate of cost decrease for renewables reflected in PPA paid by end client will slow, maybe stabilise /small rise for a while. But as new power plants are needed and only a very brave or ideological executive would lock in a 20 year carbon based electricity ppa (and how many developers would build a fossil plant with a 40 year life expectancy or be able to finance it these days?) 19 Banks have so far turned down Adani's massive Australian proposed coal mine. They will all know the move to renewables is unstoppable and wont bet against the future. ***Because Nov 4 2020** is not that long away. Maybe an opportunity for some well placed option strategies. Appreciate hearing your thoughts as your take on yieldcos unrivalled .
  3. Hi Everyone, just saw two Form 4's showing PEGI insiders selling at $23 a few days ago, not big volume but nevertheless.....
  4. Thanks very much Explo and Robert for your thoughtful responses. Slowing grid decarbonisation through uncertainty - many tens of thousands of jobs - to benefit few thousand (?) workers in US panel fabs and raise costs to US end users seems unwise, although wind benefits. The time frame to build and fully ramp domestic US production I'm guessing would be ~24? months minimum from a decision on the petition and gives thin film a big free kick and limited competition - maybe to have it all changed again as once ramped - at artificially high prices - it would only be about a year then till next election, not to mention the midterms. If european tariff regime dropped then rest of world gets flooded with cheap panels from SE ASIA /CHINA plants whilst US consumers locked into high prices and reduced competition as the pressing need to decarbonise mounts. Thats the bitter irony of protectionist policies. The money spent overpaying panels means slowing decarbonisation, capital misallocation and investment delays, setting the bigger system up for failure as investment to change old grid slows/ climate change impacts persist/ until a crisis such as happened recently in Australia with state wide blackouts ensues due to policy vacuum slowing and distorting investment . Is the petition decision due in about 100 days now ~ mid August? Robert do you think your thesis on NEP sp growth is impacted much, maybe more likely at the 12% rather than 15% level of div increase? feeling a bit over solar at the moment....
  5. Hi all, wondering what the collective wisdom is re yieldcos and (1) the petition and (2) NRG potential 5Gw renewables sell off or both ?{admission - long NEP and NYLD} Enertuition on SA has an article re devco situations re petition but no mention of Yieldcos. I'm assuming drop downs will still occur but cost might be higher and unless PPA $ rise then lower IRR for yieldcos so presumably a general slow down , lower prices bid for projects or higher PPA or all three? Is wind preferentially boosted , hence an uptick for PEGI? What happens if CAFD sold and FSLR suddenly gangbusters? Which yieldco gets lucky or will it be using SUNE style warehouses? Back with yieldcos - If NRG does dump 5GW renewables and NYLD becomes freestanding then ?BAM ?Berkshire ?Total etc? (?Pensions /greenbonds money?) pick up the assets either directly or via partnering with yieldco's? Maybe thats the cryptic comment re 'seeking partners' in NYLD recent statements (already pointed out on this site) . In any event thinking the more stable yieldco's should continue to be stable and may either get some catalyst if partner arrives or at least provide steady dividend but ?lower growth in dividend if acquisitions slow? If petition + NRG selloff happens could be interesting??? All thoughts welcomed !
  6. Just wondering if BAM might be the play if such a big renewable portfolio seems likely to be up for sale? They specialize in buying cheaply and have very deep pockets??? Hope you are enjoying vacation Robert - missing your thoughts on PEGI Q1 and now NYLD :-)
  7. Agree - not very rational the FSLR movement, I think very much driven by emotion and possibly the sense that tariff etc might help them. I noticed on the latest Form 4 exec selling at $35, might be for other reasons but when I observe this at FSLR usually a SP drop is coming. Trading in a high volatilty market means a lot of time in front of screens and playing against the high frequency algorithms. I think your articles and analysis re high quality yieldcos (and high low risk compounding returns ) is very smart.
  8. Thanks. I cant find the details but noted that the 12 month high is different and lower for the NYLD.A and share count lower and delta vs NYLD not constant so I will avoid. Nothing on NYLD site , might need to email lR .
  9. Wondering about NYLD vs NYLD.A which one is best? The spread between the two at closing was NYLD.A 40 cents cheaper. The beta on NYLD.A looks higher, (1.2 vs 0.98) which is telling although dividend stated to be the same. Is NYLD.A just more thinly traded ?? Do the voting or security holder rights differ?
  10. Thanks Robert much appreciated, might be a good entry.
  11. Thanks Robert, I look at parents and yieldcos as a pair these days after sune complex misadventures. My thinking currently is that if Dev 2.0 100m financed by equity and enables recycled growth to hit acquisition target the PEGI payout should as you pointed out drop to say 86% or similar. If a 6% yield at that point and current div steadyish that should be SP 27.50 approx (as you and others/company calculated ). (ie approx +25% from current) Whereas on NYLD at say $16.85 a 5.5% return (current 1.08 annualised) as you say (or more to to compensate for NRG issues) would be approx sp 19.60-$20.00 in 2018 (ie approx +16.3% from current SP taking lower end of range). [these are rough calculations and quote some of your work]. The difference as you say is in the number of steps , hence failure points for PEGI to get there. However the potentially larger liquidity NYLD might have is a countervailing factor going forward. Will the little guys get squeezed as space matures?
  12. Is the recent NYLD drop just about market reaction to Q1 results, although seemed in line or anything else? Have looked but cant find anything obvious? Any info? Any NRG issues? The sensitivity of tNYLD portfolio returns in the earnings call transcript to wind/curtailment was interesting moving from P25 to P 75 leads to +/- $5m and from memory an average 5% fluctuation in either direction can trigger this, so they need one quarter of +5% to counterbalance the Q1 underperformance , although interestingly the CEO/CFO (forget which) did say annual guidance on track with some potential upside which sounds overall positive. Robert I'm wondering about your take on NRG the parent itself , is it basically coming out of trouble currently? Thanks Robert for the reminder re NEP record date , rebalanced from PEGI to NEP recently. Wondering how market will go for PEGI Q1 /Dev2.0 on Tuesday, drifting at the moment.
  13. Thanks Robert very useful thoughts. I read your comments on NYLD , thinking about NEP comparison, half the price of NEP is attractive but NEE seems a lot stronger parent than NRG . I realise NYLD is advising 16% div growth next two years which ~ matches or slightly better than NEP. How do you see NYLD vs NEP after 2020? NYLD has dropped to $16.75 AH ?entry?
  14. Hi Robert, Thank you for excellent article re PEGI whitepaper. Wondering from your research for that article how you see potential returns of NEP VS PEGI over next 5 years assuming Pattern Dev 2.0 proceeds and no major hickups? You calculate approx $27 for PEGI on 6% return (is this post near term equity raise to finance the 100m?) and can see in your analysis how the 100m into Dev2.0 projects can lead to cash flow for acquisition of the next 2.3GW. What I'm wondering is what kind of 2020 SP valuation this might imply for PEGI? Beyond 2020 does this Dev2.0 investment then compound or hits a ceiling , limiting growth after that , assuming ppa get less generous etc? This is a long way of saying I am trying to weigh up NEP 2022 SP projection you have made previously vs 2022 PEGI SP potential if Dev2.0 proceeds sucessfully. I am planning to hold both longterm but can add a bit to either position at this time and working through this decision. Thanks in advance.
  15. What about PEGI vs the analysis above re DQ if more risk is considered than NEP/NYLD? PEGI is v strongly North American wind based which CS thinks could be advantaged, significant cost reduction and output increases per turbine coming as per last call, southern cross transmission line opportunities and some higher risk opportunity if they co-invest in Pattern development 2.0 as per whitepaper recently, as well as about ~8% Div. Using a very conservative dividend stream value calculation (Pendragon on SA methodology) with steep discounts on the published numbers and high safety margin for end valuation, buying under $23 would be a target. [noting high current payout ratio and assuming it will drop]. I'm a lot less excited by solarco volatility these days and also hat-tip to Robert for his great yieldco articles which really informed my thinking. (also NEP, NYLD). Happy to get there slowly. That said those with the experience and nerves to ride the volatility may hold a very different and valid view. Good wishes to all.
  16. Good thought, even better if a bit of pullback continues till record date . Agree its a very interesting stock, thanks for your excellent articles on SA.
  17. Nice move up on PEGI recently , heres one explanation , not sure how credible , haven't followed it up as yet. http://www.postanalyst.com/2017/04/24/36-hedge-funds-buy-pattern-energy-group-inc-pegi-for-the-first-time/
  18. Not to mention rapidly advancing Perovskites ...and whatever to come. Significant technological risk in this area makes long term moats tricky. The other issue is when the business case is there the real financial muscle will arrive and buyouts etc. Who will develop and control critical IP , if that is the ultimate revenue source? How much pure science is CN3 funding or will it be quasi public and the IP available widely? Who really made the money medium term on light bulbs for instance ? I doubt governments would allow one company to monopolize IP that likely has been public funded in an area potentially so crucial to our survival as solar. The trouble with solar panels is that they tend to be functional commodities not something like an iphone consumer object however functional that people pay a premium for because they love the pink-gold version. I started out by thinking solar could be a value game but now see it as more about volatility and catalyst effects with maybe something like NEP being the value play. Just my thoughts.
  19. Any ideas why NEP +4.6% and with the IR rise? I hold this and think it is trading well below value based on dividend stream but wondering if some catalyst I have missed?
  20. Also can use investor.firstsolar.com/sec.cfm and set up sec filing alerts etc , have this kind of alert set up for key stocks, the nasdaq site always gives me trouble loading.
  21. Index funds will shed them, timing based on rebalancing dates. Form4 (mentioned already in FSLR discussion) has exec selling at ~$32.50 , only additions seemed to be the stock they get 'for free'.
  22. FSLR sell looks on, lots of Form 4's now show selling around $32. Last time Form4's were selling was at ~$44 and then ....went to $28. How low this time?
  23. Thanks Robert , very good article. Feel more comfortable if PEGI payout ratio moves lower over time. I think the $100m for devco could be strategic if not too soon (say 2018-19 ) and preferably with more visibility re sponsor finances (unlikely to be forthcoming) as the sheer volume of solar/wind going forward then will I suspect float most boats at a minimum and so far feel managment quality at PEGI is good. Assume this greater dynamism despite your reservations underlies your portfolio tilt to PEGI relative to NEP?
  24. Thanks for these comments. In my case there is a tax treaty which reduces the withholding tax to 15% but in the case of tax free dividend there should be no tax deducted. I received a TERP dividend (?late 2015 - cant remember) which was called a 'distribution ' electronically and no tax deducted. The form 8937 that PEGI has on the website (plus their K10 ) confirms non taxable, except that the brokers custodian chose not to accept the 8937 arguing it was based 'on reasonable assumptions' (allowed by the IRS) but would only become incontrovertible once annual P&L known. Its an annoyance and an issue for all the Yieldco's i know and all tax advantaged dividends as have to wait .......till annual P&L, which makes the costs of the Form 8937 seem a waste. If anyone knows an authoritative statement from IRS on whether custodians /brokers have to act in good faith on 8937 statements would be useful. I have scoured IRS website but cant find the killer quote to send to custodian. If anyone has gone through lodging a claim with IRS for refund of 'overwithholding' as they term it -love to hear !
  25. Thanks, looking forward to the next installment in your SA series of articles .