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Showing content with the highest reputation since 10/14/2018 in Posts

  1. 2 points
    New article just out: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/daqo-energy-begins-pilot-production-103000440.html So here's the business case, according to the article: production cost to decrease to $7.50/kg by end of Q1 19, to $6.80/kg by end of Q1 20. Klothilde, what does your number-crunching say about profitability at these cost levels?
  2. 1 point
    Thanks for sharing. Imho this is the best analysis so far supporting the thesis of a polysilicon re-adjustment to lower price levels. The article points to a price level of $8.5/kg supporting a run-rate of 110GW of installation at the end of 2019. The supply stack suggests this price can easily fall to near $7/kg for a slightly lower demand of around 100GW. No point in regurgitating the implications for DQ EPS and PPS based on the above, you guys know my opinion.
  3. 1 point
    Chinese solars coming in with Q3 express reports. No surprise earnings are down and impacted by the new deal https://www.pv-tech.org/news/impact-from-chinas-solar-deployment-cuts-start-hitting-companies-q3-financi
  4. 1 point
    Nice article on the Si capacities costs and demand of new vs legacy Poly plants. It also covers some demand/price suggestions a bottoming near especially based on wether GCL winds up shuttering the older capacity. It is suggesting that Si/watt is falling to 3.27grams for 2019 due to moving to more efficient mono, thinner diamond wires black silicon etc. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20181019/935243.shtml Due to the production capacity of 60,000 tons of domestic Tongwei shares and 50,000 tons of Xinjiang GCL in November and December, even if all the current three types of capacity are 90,000 tons, the total amount is increased, so for those high For enterprises with electricity costs, the current industry situation is already very clear: the price of silicon materials will not pick up in the future, and continuing to maintain production will only increase losses. The early withdrawal of such capacity is a responsibility for protecting themselves and investors, and is a wise decision to judge the situation. The amount of silicon produced by the number of components will continue to decrease. Even assuming a global PV demand of 110 GW in 2019, the demand for silicon is only 360,000 tons. After understanding the total demand and supply, we can make a balance between supply and demand based on these data:
  5. 1 point
    256MW? Very nice. Can only mean one thing. Down we go today! https://investors.canadiansolar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/canadian-solar-partners-biosar-build-256-mwp-solar-project-total
  6. 1 point
    FSLR can only sell in the U.S. due to the Trumpian tariffs for the premium. That premium is quickly fallen. The ROW they are now not competitive. That is 20% of their shipments if I recall. As for the U.S. There is also 2.5GW of tariff free that can be imported and Sunpower can import unlimited tariff free modules. They will be getting those modules on the cheap with the ASP collapse. Now as for the ASP collapse, here is a nice link that covers the impact on foreign pricing that you can now adjust for current ASPs. https://news.energysage.com/2018-us-solar-tariff-impact-prices/ The first year was expected to have a 10-12 cent impact. based on module low and high prices.The second year it falls by 5% to a 25% tariff. It was expected that based on a 32 to 38 cent module ASP the impact would add 8-10 cents. Now the reality is that the module prices are now in the $0.24-$0.28. That places the impact at 7.2-8.5 cents for the rest of the year. Starting February 2019 the rate drops to 25% and the impact on the module drops to 6-7 cents. So the ASP will soon be $0.30-$0.35 for 2019 at most. In all probability with 2.5GW of tariff free modules to subisdize the profits, the ASP could be $0.28-$0.33 in 2019 especially when looking at Sunpowers unlimited imports. Jinko and others are ramping U.S. module manufacturing as well. They will be importing solar cells at cost or $0.09-$0.013(multi Mono). With the tarrif impacts the cost is $0.115- $0.165. That means at 12-13 cents for module processing their costs for Multi will be around $0.245 and mono at $0.275. From that the ASP will stay in that upper $0.20s to low $0.30s for ASPs. By the time the S6 lines are ramped come 2020, the tariff impact will only be 20% and if trends continue as China moves wafering to low energy regions of inner Mongolia and cheaper Si is abundant, then the cost for US manufactured will be in the $0.23-$0.26 range with an ASP under $0.30. Those Chinese imports will be almost as competitive. There is not a lot of meat on the bone for FSLR at those ASPs.
  7. 1 point
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-shares-hanwha-q-cells-155500821.html HQCL is being bought out. Big jump today.


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