Jump to content


Popular Content

Showing content with the highest reputation on 02/11/2020 in all areas

  1. 1 point
    I appreciate the word of caution, but you are neglecting some mitigating factors. They are expanding their efforts to penetrate the European residential market. For example, just this morning they announced they just signed a new cooperation deal with a roof manufacturer in Germany to provide in-roof PV components. So they know they don't want to stay US-centric. Also, the US residential market will continue to grow, as other states pass mandates similar to the California one requiring PV installations on new residential housing. And not all inverters are created the same. Yes, the Chinese can come in with cheaper units. But will they have the same connectivity as the Enphase ones (where the ASICs are heavily patented)? That would require patent infringement or other intellectual property theft--certainly something China is known for, but nevertheless something they'd have to retro-engineer first, and that takes time. Finally, a currently completely overlooked market is their completely off-the-grid solution for rural areas in undeveloped countries (Africa, India outside the cities). That, too, is coming, and is completely separate from their offerings for the developed rooftop market. So the question becomes, how much farther do they have to run? And here the honest answer is, of course, no one knows. But currently, their prospects are good. They've proven their technology, and they have a head start on the competition. I can easily see the stock eventually heading to $100+, based on their expanding into the European and off-grid markets. If they pull that off (and that's their plan), they'll have the profits to justify that share price. If they don't, they won't, and I will be monitoring the news for any indications those markets are not growing as expected. And of course, there will undoubtedly be pullbacks along the way. So I am not a blind cheerleader for the stock. Indeed, I have just today taken profits in it again, and currently own only one small trading position (in case they continue to go higher before pulling back). (My trading approach actually has me holding only small amounts of a stock at its all-time high, as that's the time it's most vulnerable to quick reversals.) But I am certainly ready to pounce and aggressively buy any pullbacks, even small ones. As you say, Q4 results and FY20 guidance will be key. And I anticipate both will be excellent. For the next 12 months, at least, I think this stock will continue to be a trader's dream, with frequent fluctuations around a steadily increasing stock price due to increasing profits from expanding markets. After that, who knows? Perhaps the trend will continue. Perhaps not, and it will be time to look for another trading stock. But for now, the sun is out, and it's time to make hay!
  2. 1 point

  • Create New...