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Showing content with the highest reputation on 10/02/2019 in all areas

  1. 2 points
    Well I tend to side with the GCL guy, i.e. Imo China installations in Q4 will probably come in way below expectations and installations over the next few years will be reduced. the news on government trying to get electricity rates down also simply means less funds for legacy and new solar plants and longer time to get grid parity dynamics in motion. Globally PV will probably grow at 5-10% per year. Since capacities at all steps are being expanded at much faster rates I expect oversupply to increase and margins to drop. In the short term (i.e. Q3-Q4) JKS and CSIQ may actually benefit from cheaper upstream component prices but going into Q1 and Q2 their margins will probably shrink again. DQ's ASP and margin will be hit as well since we have quite a lot of new polysilicon supply coming online into Q1. Further I speculate China (industry and government) is now ready to price OCI and Wacker out of the Chinese market by lowering prices in 2020 and lending financial assistance to key players to withstand a string of unprofitable quarters. I see blood in my crystal ball. Regarding the delisting thing this may be a good opportunity (excuse) for JKS to finally crash the stock and take the company private. Only reason why it hasn't happened yet is cuz they needed the yearly secondaries to fund their expansion. Some of my thoughts...

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