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  1. 2 points
    Right now CSIQ the core MSS is running over 22% gross margins. This does not include Systems sales from Japan. As far as Japan projects, they have 90MW already in operation for sales. They also have an additional 120MW to be completed in 2019 and 2020 along with 187MW in 2021 and beyond. These numbers are around 40-50MW above the inital Japan projects MW schedule from a year ago. That indicates most of the projects of 150MW a year are still the higher FIT. That is a nice buffer for the next 2 to 3 years that will likely add and extra $150M in gross a year at a minimum.
  2. 2 points
    Expired SSL certificate caused the security risk message. Site is now restored. Thanks
  3. 2 points
    New CN policy looks to be targeting 2019 installations greater than 2018. Seems to set targets of around 45GW. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190219/963630.shtml According to the most conservative estimate, the installed capacity of photovoltaics will reach more than 45 million kilowatts in 2019, which has exceeded 44.26 million kilowatts in 2018 http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190219/963637.shtml In 2019, the subsidized rated installed capacity will be calculated according to the current expected 3 billion subsidy scale (excluding poverty alleviation). The subsidy intensity of the power subsidy is 0.075 yuan/kWh, and the subsidy scale is about 35.9 GW. (When the power subsidy intensity is 0.05 yuan/kWh, the subsidy scale is about 53.8GW), and then consider 5GW photovoltaic poverty alleviation and 5GW unsubsidized projects, and deduct about 1GW of household occupancy index after 2018 531, 2019 The installed capacity of photovoltaics in the year may reach 45GW, exceeding the installed capacity of 44.3GW in 2018.
  4. 2 points
    Awesome update from CSIQ. Beat on Q4.
  5. 1 point
    Agreed that IRRATIONAL exuberance is always a bad idea when investing. But today's report gives plenty of reason for RATIONAL exuberance.
  6. 1 point
    Chinese solar manufacturers guiding big hikes in 1H 2019 financial results https://www.pv-tech.org/news/chinese-solar-manufacturers-guiding-big-hikes-in-1h-2019-financial-results
  7. 1 point
    Big picture stuff, but helps spread the word. https://www.forbes.com/sites/enriquedans/2019/07/16/the-global-energy-map-is-changing-faster-than-youthink/#4426cab624f1
  8. 1 point
    Pretty interesting. This sort of thing will only continue. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2019/07/01/new-solar--battery-price-crushes-fossil-fuels-buries-nuclear/#727b67b05971
  9. 1 point
    Here you go, straight from the horse's mouth: "...And for the Q2, the gross margin is at the mid range of 14% to 15%, it’s relatively lower than Q1. And Q1, the gross margin is pretty good and exceeding our guidance. And for the Q2, it's basically because our new capacity is still in the construction stage and will not have contributing to the profitability in second quarter..." https://seekingalpha.com/article/4272691-jinkosolar-holding-co-ltd-jks-ceo-chen-kangping-q1-2019-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single That puts them around break-even before adjustments in Q2 on my books. A forex gain may probably put some icing on the numbers.
  10. 1 point
    Koch brothers now using crows to destroy solar power plants: http://m.solarzoom.com/index.php/article/126902
  11. 1 point
    Total renewable energy capacity passes that of coal in the U.S. FERC projections that Renewables will supply 1/3 of the capacity in a few years. https://solarindustrymag.com/renewables-finally-beat-coal-for-u-s-electrical-generating-capacity For the first time, U.S. electrical generating capacity by renewable energy sources – biomass, geothermal, hydropower, solar and wind – has surpassed that of coal, according to a SUN DAY Campaign analysis of new data from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC).
  12. 1 point
    I know their bifacial panels are a small part of CSIQ's sales, but wouldn't they suddenly become the panel of choice in the U.S. if they avoid the 30% tariff and are more efficient? Not sure where they are on costs, but that 30% off seems like a great place to start. Looks like it's up a bit after hours since news posted.
  13. 1 point
    Chinese solar execs detained in Germany on suspicion of smuggling modules into Europe: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/06/07/three-arrests-at-intersolar-europe-for-circumventing-eus-minimum-module-price/
  14. 1 point
    I think you need to take with a grain of salt their stated costs. Typically costs are quarters end stated for internal production with current quarterly claimed margins. They have a large deferred revenue recognition with respect to their project builds and module acceptance periods of customers. This means that a large portion 30% or more could be from earlier builds as much as 6 months earlier when their costs were much higher than Q4 stated. For example it takes 1 to 2 months to freight ship. It could take another 1 to 2 months to get them installed. The contracts may also have acceptance clauses that require 6 months of running for baseline output. This suggests that a good portion of the quarterly recognized modules for revenues could be deffered from quarters back. Just look at Q1 where there revenue recognized modules were 1423MW and shipped is about 150MW more. As they mentioned they have over 900MW of EPC projects going on. That is the potential of 250MW a quarter in deferred sales until completed and acceptance. As they roll into more and more NTP this will be worse as will some of their major customer contracts like the recent 1.8GW contract. You also need to understand that not only is the deffered sales hitting their cost structure but it also props up the ASP. They are also being selective and selling to high margin markets and have built a direct sales team. These all lead to the higher ASP as well. The ASP was covered in a reply to Colin Rush.
  15. 1 point
    CANADIAN SOLAR SET A WORLD RECORD OF 22.28% MULTI-CRYSTALLINE CELL CONVERSION EFFICIENCY http://investors.canadiansolar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/canadian-solar-set-world-record-2228-multi-crystalline-cell
  16. 1 point
    Canadian Solar among buyers of 75% stake in Kazatomprom photovoltaic (PV) cell and module production units. https://renewablesnow.com/news/kazatomprom-selling-75-stake-in-kazakh-pv-production-ops-654654/
  17. 1 point
    Another hobo sighting: Evaluating Canadian Solar's Q4 2018 Earnings Selloff https://seekingalpha.com/article/4265136
  18. 1 point
    Well honeys the stock is up despite the heavy bashing earlier here. Let's just hope CSIQ behaves just as good after its ER. 🤪
  19. 1 point
    I believe that article is incorrect in the period of the bookings. They PR'd http://ir.jinkosolar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/jinkosolar-secures-over-107-gw-orders-2019 "Jinko has announced they have contracted FOR 2019 10.7GW.." They did not state 10.7GW IN 2019 which would imply a 4 month bookings. This PR appears to be a cumulative statement for 2019 and not a new bookings in 2019. If that interpretation is correct, they have 3.3-4.3GW left to book for 2019. This would be bookings needed in the next 5 or 6 months. That is very attainable for them. This PR follows a notice of expanding 5GW of of Mono capacity pushing capacity to 11.5GW of Mono wafers. That is 500MW higher than previously guided in Q1. Phillip Shen asked some expansion questions the company indicated it needs some $400-$450M in Capex for the expansions this year. He also questioned them on the equity raising needed and where it comes from and it was clear they are looking at some equity raising. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4250602-jinkosolar-holding-co-ltd-jks-ceo-kangping-chen-q4-2018-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single Based on the 2 back to back PR's which are basically an affirmation of their intended capacity expansions and progress for sales in 2019, the company is likely looking for positive press and stock so they can raise equity to pay for the capacity expansion.
  20. 1 point
    Approaching 50% return less than 4 months into the year. Nothing special in solar world, but this time my capital preservation strategy is better. After a long time of focus on asset allocation optimization and verification of Alpha and Beta return attribution I've recently focused more on return contribution analysis in order to verify that the allocation does not contain any poor contributors due to flawed strategy or tactic. I think that this continuous qualification of the strategy and tactic is key to long-term performance success. --- Goal Financial independence by 2030 Objective 15% annual return @ 25% volatility Strategy Rebalance optimal allocation Tactic Buy the dips and hold the rips Allocation Return
  21. 1 point
    I had been telling you that the costs being reported in ER's was not where current costs to manufacture were being headed. Now you have hard evidence that the cost to manufacture from the low wafer, cell and lamination price drops has pushed the cost down to $0.20. That cost point can easily be profitable at $0.25/watt that high efficiency poly is averaging according to PV insights. That $0.20 basically means they sell for 20% margins at what is the costs FSLR to produce their S6 modules at today. Their S4 module costs are even higher than your estimate $0.24-$0.25 FSLR has become a 1 trick pony selling into a protected subsidized market in which the subsidy will go away and competition will increase. I do not invest in companies that rely on a single market for 80%+ of their revenues. That never ends well.
  22. 1 point
    Looks like H2/2019 in China will be explosive: with about 15 GW PV installations per quarter... https://www.pv-tech.org/news/chinas-new-subsidy-programme-could-support-up-to-50gw-says-official
  23. 1 point
    Only what the web shows. The web suggests they are a 200MW facility that assembles the modules in San AntonioTexas. They use Asian sourced components. They shut down their 100MW cell late 2016 https://www.pv-magazine.com/2016/10/03/mission-solar-energy-to-close-texas-cell-lines-lay-off-87-employees_100026343/ There warranty is 4 to 12 years on mechanical assemby and 25 yrs on power degredataion http://www.missionsolar.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/MSE-PV-Module-Limited-Warranty-2018-2019-4BB-5BB.pdf They wholesale for around $0.70/watt https://www.bluepacificsolar.com/best-solar-panels.html It looks like they are a subsidiary of OCI lmtd, those same Multi National guys who make Poly in Seoul Korea. http://www.missionsolar.com/about-us/ They started up around 2014 and have panels installed in the Alamo1 power plant located in San Antonio area. https://newsroom.cpsenergy.com/made-san-antonio-solar-panels/ Hope this helps.
  24. 1 point
    I've lost count of how many times they have lied to investors. I buy their audited financial statements but not much more than that. That's just me.
  25. 1 point
    PEGI has been one of my better buys - steady climb and paying great divi
  26. 1 point
    They are sold out into 2021 at fixed prices. Nothing can change their top line in 2020, not even the meteorite that killed the dinosaurs.
  27. 1 point
    You are reading the tea leaves wrong. They do not need a $2 spread in 2020. They needed a $2 spread at past 6KMT production levels. For 2019 they are guiding 37-40KMT. They will earn $1 a share on a $1.50 spread before subsidy payments and taxes. In October Nov they will have the Phase 4A starting trial production. They should be ramped 70KMT come January 2020(9 months for now). That 70KMT will produce around 80-90KMT of poly. At a $1 spread that is $80-$90M gross. SGNA is $8.2M today and might go to say $12M. Interest is $2M a Q. That is $56M expenses when 70KMT is ramped. They will earn $24-$34M before taxes adjustments and subsidies in 2020 based on a $1 spread. That is $2-$3 in earnings. For every $0.025 above that $1 spread they will gross an added $20M that goes straight to the bottom line. A $0.50 spread could add $3-$4 a share potential upside to $5-$7 a share in 2020. That and think what happens to FSLR with Poly cost and the rest of the CN costs dropping 30-40% over the next 2-4 years. That is what you should be worried about.
  28. 1 point
    JKS booked out until H2 and expanding capacity 10-20%: https://menafn.com/1098223156/China-plans-to-sustain-solar-growth-with-its-new-policy
  29. 1 point
    energytrend says demand is weak: https://www.energytrend.com/pricequotes/20190307-13440.html
  30. 1 point
    I think they have positive earnings of a couple pennies before 1 timers I expect a $1.85 spread on cost to ASP. I am using a lower cost and volume than yours Gross comes in around $12.6M My Opex and Int are slightly higher at $12.2M Q4 though is not relevant. 2019 costs and guidance are. I expect Q1 to be the low for the year in earnings in the low double digits and increasing from there. I expect Q1 costs to be around $7.50 I expect costs to decline slightly from there with production ramps and optimization The second half of 2019 should be stronger as that is were the forecast in volume increases over the first half. This should lead to a slight rise in ASP int he second half even with the new capacity. From this I reasonably expect a full year profit of North of $2 a share. Disclosure: I do not own DQ.
  31. 1 point
    Q1 sales are generally announced near the end of Q1 or a couple weeks into Q2. They also are relying more and more on EPC contracted work from projects they did sell in the past before completed.
  32. 1 point
    I think he's referring to 2018 and their FY GM of 17.5% vs. original guidance of 22-23% in Dec. 2017. I don't know all the reasons, they had some extra costs in Q4 to finish the projects on time, but that's only one of several reasons probably. On a positive note revenue came very close to the lower end of guidance, EPS within the guidance range, and net cash above guidance. However I think pointing out their GM miss is like searching for a hair in the soup, as they say in my country. Good thing the CNs don't give you GM guidance because then you would find the whole wig in the soup.
  33. 1 point
    JKS' double in 3 months (almost a triple in 4 months) combined with a massive contract with DQ announce the other day (a.k.a. expansion) smells like a secondary is coming.
  34. 1 point
    Your word in God's ear! That would pretty much restore my portfolio to previous highs....
  35. 1 point
    Why do we have to "spin" anything? This is a board for factual discussion.
  36. 1 point
    You are clueless. Went long csiq yesterday, minimum 6 month target 40s
  37. 1 point
    Chinese city wants 700 MW of new solar within two years: The announcement from the city authorities comes in the wake of the central government’s call for local authorities, electricity companies and big lenders to remove roadblocks to what it designated ‘grid-parity’ PV projects, by which it meant installations which did not benefit from central subsidies but which could be encouraged by local incentives. https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/02/14/chinese-city-wants-700-mw-of-new-solar-within-two-years/
  38. 1 point
    I expect them to meet or slightly beat, though I haven't looked at the numbers in detail. They are basically sold out for the next two years at fixed prices, so imo that leaves little room for EPS surprises either up or down. Two positives are that prices in the U.S. are holding up well (despite the ominous 2.5GW quota for foreign cells) and that S6 certification is progressing as planned: https://www.pvinfolink.com/post.php?sn=2 https://investor.firstsolar.com/news/press-release-details/2018/First-Solar-Series-6-Completes-CSA-C450-Test-Protocol-at-CSA-Groups-PV-Test-Lab-CFV-Solar/default.aspx Imho FSLR will be quite boring over the next several quarters because they are transparent and predictable. If you prefer a roller coaster with 50% swings then I'd suggest to stick with the CNs.
  39. 1 point
    I am not Klothilde but I do have a few predictions for the upcoming earnings. First off, the company should declare a fairly large tax refund. In 2017 First Solar took a $405M hit to repatriate its overseas earnings due to the new tax bill. Considering the one-time rate was 15.5%, this seemed like a massive overpayment. Management has a history of overpaying taxes and then claiming a big refund. Unless I am mistaken this should provide a huge ($1.5-$2) EPS beat. The company has alluded to a potential refund in every earnings call and 10-Q this year. Here is what they said last time. "To relate, the U.S. tax reform enacted last December, we have not recorded any adjustment through Q3 related to our original estimates. We expect to finalize our accounting related to tax reform in Q4 based upon finalization of currently proposed tax regulations and the filing of our federal and state income tax returns." Also, during the guidance call the company hinted at possibly expanding in either Vietnam or Ohio. It wouldn't be to surprising for them to announce construction beginning on a third plant in Vietnam. Also, management mentioned getting started on 5GW of projects to qualify for the ITC Safe Harbor requirements. This should mean that the projects pipeline should grow dramatically in the next few quarters. Lastly, here's an article about a 135GW project getting developed in Cambodia. It would appear the company is still competitive internationally.
  40. 1 point
    I can see the past year has turned you into a more bitter fellow, which is unsurprising given the poor performance of most solar stocks but this needen't be the case in the coming years. I'm very grateful to this forum, specially Robert and H20 since I learnt a lot from both of these members and had large profits with Daqo in 2018. I just wanted to share my view that I believe it is probable that the solar sector is making another turn to the upside and long term bets could produce ample profits in the future. Solar still only ptovides 0.6% of the world's energy consumption, the growth potential is huge and CSIQ is in a great possition to capitalize it.
  41. 1 point
    Wow, climate change is negatively impacting solar PV profits now..
  42. 1 point
    My second recommendation is Sangamo Therapeutics, SGMO. By Feb 7, the company will have a delivery of the results in MPS II and MPS I. They are first in the world to edit the human genome in vivo. MPS II results were released in September where the application reduced negative byproduct GAGs. In Feb expectation is to confirm that IDS enzyme is produced therefore GAGs are reduced by patients' production of IDS, a deficit of the enzyme is a sole root-cause of MPS II disease. The stock volatility may be very high. However, for those with risk acceptance, now and next 7 trading days from today, the stock could move 10 to 15%. If something fails a 20 to 30% may be experienced on Feb 7. There are more stories to this company. If I will see that Feb 7 is validated I will offer a bigger summary. Proceed at your own risk and good luck.
  43. 1 point
    Here is a news: China ready to set 3 GW quota for residential solar in 2019 https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/01/24/china-ready-to-set-3-gw-quota-for-residential-solar-in-2019/
  44. 1 point
    I would be concerned about JKS. They are the guarantor of the debt they spun off with the New Energy spinoff. A very large portion of those projects were not in the catalog and not getting the FIT payments.
  45. 1 point
    If your math is correct, they'd be smarter to just shut down their business right now.
  46. 1 point
    GP $620-$700M. Opex $430M+/- Interest $100M+/- ASP $0.27 CPW $0.235(13%GM) on 8GW shipments for revenues The wild card are project sales revenue , power revenues and EPC revenues. Project 130MW Japan @ 3.30 @ 30%GM 700MW @ 1.2/W @ 12.5%GM Power Revenues/Dividend Incomes $40M @ 50%GM EPC $150M @ 15%GM
  47. 1 point
    Low end I see is $1.25 high end range is $2.25. Shipments for revenues in the 8GW range.
  48. 1 point
    Needham transcript https://seekingalpha.com/article/4233632-canadian-solar-inc-csiq-21st-annual-needham-growth-brokers-conference-transcript?page=1
  49. 1 point
    China unveils an ambitious new push on grid parity solar https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/01/10/china-unveils-an-ambitious-new-push-on-grid-parity-solar/
  50. 0 points
    Sounds like a great advice - buy high (sell low?). So there was no reason to buy CSIQ in low teen$ for most of last year, but all the reasons to buy it in low (almost mid) $20s earlier this week? I think I need to go back to school as I'm missing all the logic behind it.


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