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  1. 2 points
    New CN policy looks to be targeting 2019 installations greater than 2018. Seems to set targets of around 45GW. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190219/963630.shtml According to the most conservative estimate, the installed capacity of photovoltaics will reach more than 45 million kilowatts in 2019, which has exceeded 44.26 million kilowatts in 2018 http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190219/963637.shtml In 2019, the subsidized rated installed capacity will be calculated according to the current expected 3 billion subsidy scale (excluding poverty alleviation). The subsidy intensity of the power subsidy is 0.075 yuan/kWh, and the subsidy scale is about 35.9 GW. (When the power subsidy intensity is 0.05 yuan/kWh, the subsidy scale is about 53.8GW), and then consider 5GW photovoltaic poverty alleviation and 5GW unsubsidized projects, and deduct about 1GW of household occupancy index after 2018 531, 2019 The installed capacity of photovoltaics in the year may reach 45GW, exceeding the installed capacity of 44.3GW in 2018.
  2. 2 points
    Awesome update from CSIQ. Beat on Q4.
  3. 2 points
    Hopefully not for a buyout at 18.60! Chuckle....
  4. 2 points
    The story of Canadian pipeline shrinking was heard loud and clear on this forum since Canadian plants were completed. The company is not only one pure developer still standing, but it is producing more and more business encompassing other arms of managing solar plants. It maintains healthy "sell and/or keep" strategy. There are many markets to go with solar plants. And those markets will expand. We have not seen any victims of the slowdowns with exception of few subs going bankrupt in China. There is plenty of space available. The manufacturing and the decisions made had worked thus far for the company. I am not sure why transformation, when required, would not be as well executed as it has been to date. Not sure why a successful organization would suddenly lose its footing. They are the most capable of a shift. FSLR has zero ability to shift, SPWR is dead, JKS is almost dead and will never be buried if it died, like Yingli, but CSIQ is somehow paralyzed and cannot make a move? I read those scenarios too many times. I argued against them as many, and I am surprised to see them again. Even Snake seems to be seeing Chinese taking FSLR to cleaners now. I do not have a skin in this game, but I think Canadian could surprise few folks here with its share price going forward. Cheers, I am back under the rock.
  5. 2 points
    While I understand (and, as a former [albeit small] JASO stockholder, share) the sentiment, I wouldn't put too much stock into this announcement (pun intended). First, since the guilty parties are all in China, I don't know if a US court has any jurisdiction over them. Second, Pomerantz are ambulance chasers. I've seen their name in dozens of headlines. A company will announce bad news one day, and the next half a dozen of these guys all announce lawsuits, including Pomerantz. I have never once heard of such a suit actually being successful. So this may be a Pyrrhic victory at best....
  6. 1 point
    Koch brothers now using crows to destroy solar power plants: http://m.solarzoom.com/index.php/article/126902
  7. 1 point
    https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2019/06/12/bifacial-beats-trumps-tariffs/ Always thought one day I'd get my money back on some FSLR shares I had at $70. I dumped every share I owned today at 61.50, so that'll never happen. This makes yesterday's strange attempted breakout look like some insider knew what was gonna happen. Now, to see how the analysts spin this and twist it up and spit it back out to us to move the stocks. I added to my CSIQ today.
  8. 1 point
    I was so excited earlier this year when ENPH hit $7. Looks like $17+ today and no end in sight as they build market share with their industry leading products. IQ8 by the end of the year!
  9. 1 point
    Chinese solar execs detained in Germany on suspicion of smuggling modules into Europe: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/06/07/three-arrests-at-intersolar-europe-for-circumventing-eus-minimum-module-price/
  10. 1 point
    I have a hard time confirming the $0.30 ASP. I do have theories after looking at revenue segments from the PR. The theory is that revenues of module sales is included in some of the other areas of revenues such as Kits OAM and ESS Projects. They shipped for Revenue 1423MW $371M for MSS solar modules and other products = $0.26 ASP If you add in $25M for kits , the ASP is $0.278 if you add in OAM you get $0.306 if you take MSS $431M you get $0.318 If you take MSS Kits OAM and Energy Projects you get $0.323 Clearly in MSS numbers some of the products is inverters rails etc as part of the kits. Lets presume Kits are 1/3 other costs $0.10 for inverters maybe $0.05 mounts connectors etc. This would reduce 8.3M from the revenue side and $0.006 in lowe ASP If OAM includes upgrades to modules, then there could be some module sales embedded inthose numbers. If say 20% of that is modules, then you lose about $0.022/W I presume that some of the Energy section could have embedded in it the module ASP for the NTP projects as sales. This could be as much as 70-80% of the services. That would lose about $0.01 on the above numbers. Very odd but my best guess is they took MSS numbers, at $453.1. This is $0.318. They subtracted out kits other costs and OAM non module costs(total of around $40M) or $0.028 And added in some NTP revenue say 50% or $0.008. That would get you around $0.298 ASP. This is just looking at the numbers and trying to figure where some of the module revenue would be recognized as a whole.
  11. 1 point
    CANADIAN SOLAR SET A WORLD RECORD OF 22.28% MULTI-CRYSTALLINE CELL CONVERSION EFFICIENCY http://investors.canadiansolar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/canadian-solar-set-world-record-2228-multi-crystalline-cell
  12. 1 point
    Looks like Aguascalientes is not a problem any more... http://investors.canadiansolar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/canadian-solar-completes-sale-aguascalientes-solar-project
  13. 1 point
    Canadian Solar among buyers of 75% stake in Kazatomprom photovoltaic (PV) cell and module production units. https://renewablesnow.com/news/kazatomprom-selling-75-stake-in-kazakh-pv-production-ops-654654/
  14. 1 point
    Another hobo sighting: Evaluating Canadian Solar's Q4 2018 Earnings Selloff https://seekingalpha.com/article/4265136
  15. 1 point
    They should rename everything to losses instead of earnings. Losses release, losses con call, losses per share, etc. Complete crap. Used to be mad at the Chinese for keeping the dead alive (YGE) but turns out the westerners are not a bit better. Guess we're all human LOL.
  16. 1 point
    Looks like CSIQ is digging the CN solar policy news out today. It's been my personal ATM this year. Thanks to it and FSLR, I just signed a contract to go solar on our home, finally. Always been my goal to have solar pay for solar and today its official. Going with QCells and Enphase, however, sorry Qu, just made more sense. Pretty thrilled to get some modules up on the roof next month.
  17. 1 point
    I think the real issue with FSLR is its risk concentration: Rely on US market dominated revenues Rely on temporary competition protection in US market Rely on temporary subsidies in US market Rely on competitive success of narrow field of CdTe manufacturing equipment development Rely on success of narrow field of rare Tellurium production Rely on continued wide market acceptance of toxic Cadmium So far there's been volatile reward for these risk bets. When one has failed another has delivered. It would seem prudent to spread bets.
  18. 1 point
    I had been telling you that the costs being reported in ER's was not where current costs to manufacture were being headed. Now you have hard evidence that the cost to manufacture from the low wafer, cell and lamination price drops has pushed the cost down to $0.20. That cost point can easily be profitable at $0.25/watt that high efficiency poly is averaging according to PV insights. That $0.20 basically means they sell for 20% margins at what is the costs FSLR to produce their S6 modules at today. Their S4 module costs are even higher than your estimate $0.24-$0.25 FSLR has become a 1 trick pony selling into a protected subsidized market in which the subsidy will go away and competition will increase. I do not invest in companies that rely on a single market for 80%+ of their revenues. That never ends well.
  19. 1 point
    You guys be careful, Q1 will be horrible for Canadian, that's no secret anymore.
  20. 1 point
    Only what the web shows. The web suggests they are a 200MW facility that assembles the modules in San AntonioTexas. They use Asian sourced components. They shut down their 100MW cell late 2016 https://www.pv-magazine.com/2016/10/03/mission-solar-energy-to-close-texas-cell-lines-lay-off-87-employees_100026343/ There warranty is 4 to 12 years on mechanical assemby and 25 yrs on power degredataion http://www.missionsolar.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/MSE-PV-Module-Limited-Warranty-2018-2019-4BB-5BB.pdf They wholesale for around $0.70/watt https://www.bluepacificsolar.com/best-solar-panels.html It looks like they are a subsidiary of OCI lmtd, those same Multi National guys who make Poly in Seoul Korea. http://www.missionsolar.com/about-us/ They started up around 2014 and have panels installed in the Alamo1 power plant located in San Antonio area. https://newsroom.cpsenergy.com/made-san-antonio-solar-panels/ Hope this helps.
  21. 1 point
    Exactly, Explo. CN solars should be bought when everyone is selling them (or better yet sold alredy) and sold when everyone is buying them (or better yet bought already), not the other way around. I.E.:JKS should have been bought last quarter of last year at $8-9 and sold earlier this month once it hit $20 (none can pick absolute top and bottom); just like CSIQ should have been bought for much of last half of last year at $12-13 and sold this month in $22-23. I believe we won't see irrational move in solar circa 2009/10 and 2012/13 again. So double is good enough, triple is great. Just do no think CSIQ will get to $40 (without yieldco anticipation of 2014) nor JKS will hit $30+ without Power. Those days are done. Possibility of high margins return is hard to see when all legacy projects are gone and only low margin businesses remain where volume will be everything. Brian Lee asked JKS on Friday where are they going to get $500M without an equity raise they need to expend to 15GW. I did not hear a clear answer from Jinko's side, cause there isn't.
  22. 1 point
    Second half recovery! Everybody's doing it. It's all the rage. (MU, NVDA, AMD).. why not the solar stocks too?
  23. 1 point
    They are sold out into 2021 at fixed prices. Nothing can change their top line in 2020, not even the meteorite that killed the dinosaurs.
  24. 1 point
    OK, in your opinion. Obviously the market disagrees with you right now. But you post information meant to be critical of DQ on a nearly daily basis. Half the time, your interpretation is wrong--the article you reference is actually positive in its entirety, but you pull out an isolated number and present it in a negative light. Or ask us how we should "spin" it. This behavior reminds me of the Yahoo message boards. Do you think your "spinning" actually influences the stock price? Surely you're more intelligent than that. You want the stock price to go down. I want it to go up. Nothing either you or I do or say in this forum will influence what the stock actually does. I value this forum precisely because it is NOT the Yahoo environment. If I want to read "spin," I'll go there (and I sometimes do, when I want a laugh). Here, I want to read quantitative analysis. Moreover, I want to read CONSISTENT analysis. Don't tell me you're looking 2 years out for one stock, but are concerned about the next 3 months for another. Or if you do, just tell me once. You don't have to tell me every day. I don't mean to offend. Your posts are at least polite, unlike the Yahoo crowd. But they clearly support an agenda. We all know that agenda by now. And there's nothing wrong with having an agenda. But when you post it every day, well, it just gets old, that's all.
  25. 1 point
    You are getting me wrong, I like DQ a lot and I was hoping I could buy some. But the price needs to drop, it's too expensive right now, out of sync with fundamentals imho.
  26. 1 point
    You are reading the tea leaves wrong. They do not need a $2 spread in 2020. They needed a $2 spread at past 6KMT production levels. For 2019 they are guiding 37-40KMT. They will earn $1 a share on a $1.50 spread before subsidy payments and taxes. In October Nov they will have the Phase 4A starting trial production. They should be ramped 70KMT come January 2020(9 months for now). That 70KMT will produce around 80-90KMT of poly. At a $1 spread that is $80-$90M gross. SGNA is $8.2M today and might go to say $12M. Interest is $2M a Q. That is $56M expenses when 70KMT is ramped. They will earn $24-$34M before taxes adjustments and subsidies in 2020 based on a $1 spread. That is $2-$3 in earnings. For every $0.025 above that $1 spread they will gross an added $20M that goes straight to the bottom line. A $0.50 spread could add $3-$4 a share potential upside to $5-$7 a share in 2020. That and think what happens to FSLR with Poly cost and the rest of the CN costs dropping 30-40% over the next 2-4 years. That is what you should be worried about.
  27. 1 point
    What confuses me is they had added an additional revenue of around $6M based on poly asp and volumes. I am not certain where this comes from? Written off wafers? This other income amounted to around $4.5M profits or 60% gross margins. This is looking at revenues and gross profits less the revenue generated from Poly sales of 7030 and their claimed costs.
  28. 1 point
    JKS booked out until H2 and expanding capacity 10-20%: https://menafn.com/1098223156/China-plans-to-sustain-solar-growth-with-its-new-policy
  29. 1 point
    energytrend says demand is weak: https://www.energytrend.com/pricequotes/20190307-13440.html
  30. 1 point
    If you were wondering why JKS has dumped, patent infringement cases filed against Jinko and Longi and the REC Group by QCells for stealing and using their patented quantum technology. They are trying to block them from the US and European Union markets among others. https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2019/03/05/hanwha-q-cells-sues-jinko-longi-and-rec-for-patent-infringement/
  31. 1 point
    I think he's referring to 2018 and their FY GM of 17.5% vs. original guidance of 22-23% in Dec. 2017. I don't know all the reasons, they had some extra costs in Q4 to finish the projects on time, but that's only one of several reasons probably. On a positive note revenue came very close to the lower end of guidance, EPS within the guidance range, and net cash above guidance. However I think pointing out their GM miss is like searching for a hair in the soup, as they say in my country. Good thing the CNs don't give you GM guidance because then you would find the whole wig in the soup.
  32. 1 point
    In my opinion, CSIQ has had a greater string of positive announcements lately, including project wins and margin expansion. FSLR is still in execution of CIP phase and that hasn’t gone smoothly. If FSLR shows any acceleration of ramp up to Series 6, large project wins, margin expansion, etc. the share price trends could shift quickly.
  33. 1 point
    As for the word affordable. My it is a nasty word if all you care about is massive unfettered capitalism. The word is listed 4 times (D) building or upgrading to energy-efficient, distributed, and “smart” power grids, and ensuring affordable access to electricity Comment: Affordable sounds so nasty when trying to build something that is useful and futuristic. If they only did that with Nuclear Power plants Georgia and South Carolina would have avoided a $20Billion catastrophe that is no longer able to be built but citisens are paying for. (ii) clean, affordable, and accessible public transit; Comment: sounds reasonable to want affordable public transit that is clean. That is unless you don't use public transit that might get you from your hotel to your airport, aroud your airport, around densely populated areas etc. But I guess affordable is a hated word by unfettered capitalists. (ii) affordable, safe, and adequate housing; What affordable safe housing in a green new deal? No more tens of thousands of trailers passed out by our government that poisoned and made sick those displaced by Hurricane Katrina? Or maybe we should just let Lumber Liquidators knwoingly have their suppliers make flooring with illegal chemicals and mark them as legal just so they undercut their competitors by 15%. How about try finding materials that are safe and affordable not like lead based products , asbestos based products, products made from Oil etc. Jeesh what a terrible idea and the use of the word affordable. (iv) clean water, clean air, healthy and affordable food, and access to nature. What healthy and affordable food? Maybe only the rich should be able to buy healthy food. Or maybe food should not be tried to be made affordable. Personally I am getting sick and tired of buying $20 a pound T-Bone steaks that I used to by for $3 a pound.
  34. 1 point
    You clearly have not read the Green New Deal. If you did you would recognize it is uses the US Science intelligence report that identifies issues with Climate change. It identifies impacts of Global warming and effects on the U.S and globally. It then outlines goals and objectives with time lines in order to curb the impacts of man made US contributions to Global Warming. To me this is a reasonable to set goals to try and achieve them. Even if they achieve 50% of the goals and 50% of those targets, it is better than sitting around doing nothing. It is far better sounding to me than the current administration current policies of allowing more ground water pollution, more pollution put into the air, more strip mining and more burning of fossil fuels with less pollution inhibitors. It is only a 12 page outline of things to address and why. Please take the time to read it and do not listen to all the BS hype of banning airplane travel etc. https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-resolution/109/text?fbclid=IwAR0RQdF7V_HtPyYdjvAp-gk0Aq5iehvJ-c7_IU5MBg7M7PvBA2LGqN1R0DA
  35. 1 point
    You have not only the trade war, but the unwinding of the ITC tax credits that will come creating pricing pressures. This year the ITC is 30% tax credit , next years projects qualify for 26% in 2020 and 22% in 2021. The ITC falls to 10% for commercial and grid after 2021. As the S6 ramps, the projects costs are going to have to drop 25% over the next 3 years. This will be heavily felt in the module ASP as it is some 30-40% of the cost to build in the U.S.
  36. 1 point
    Who says I don't believe the outlook is shiny? Just because I warn against investing in some solar companies doesn't mean I don't believe in solar. In fact I think I'm one of the fiercest believers in solar here.
  37. 1 point
    Europe bounces back in 2018, and 2019 will be bigger. https://www.rechargenews.com/transition/1707217/eu-solar-bounces-back-in-2018-led-by-german-and-dutch-push?utm_source=Recharge+Daily+Newsletter&utm_campaign=c4c2e4fe31-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_02_21_09_00&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_8680971c0c-c4c2e4fe31-19444157
  38. 1 point
    Why do we have to "spin" anything? This is a board for factual discussion.
  39. 1 point
    You are clueless. Went long csiq yesterday, minimum 6 month target 40s
  40. 1 point
    First Solar risk/reward remains favorable into Q4 report, says Baird Baird analyst Ben Kallo previewed First Solar's Q4 report and he believes the risk/reward setup is favorable heading into the results. The analyst said he would be a buyer into the report as he thinks a recovering macro environment in the solar space could improve sentiment and drive share appreciation. Kallo said it remains a top pick and he maintained his Fresh Pick designation while reiterating his Outperform rating and $75 price target on First Solar shares.Read more at: https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=2864736
  41. 1 point
    That makes sense as grid parity is not in place in China. That also suggests why price declines are in store. PV insights is suggesting module prices have fallen. There are 2 good articles on Guangfu today. The first covers current market analysis and utilization rates. They suggest that utilization rates are still far below the pre 531 announcement although they did up tick recently in China. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190213/962366.shtml The overall utilization rate of production capacity in the Chinese market continued to rise, reaching 83% - but still not returning to the level before the "531 New Deal" This second article is a good article on the details of costs that China needs to hit for grid parity. It will give you an idea that the prices will drop significantly over the next 2 years. They are suggesting an average cost to build of 3.25RMB or $0.49(USD) for Grid parity. Depending on regions some are lower costs and some are higher in cost. They are suggesting the current cost to build is ~4.2RMB. They are suggesting a 28% system cost price decline is in order to meet grid parity. These suggest that the solar costs are going to have to further drop. Current costs of $0.63(USD) will fall to $0.49(USD). The current module cost I estimate at $0.26. That is 41% of the total cost. A 28% price drop on the module cost is $0.0728. This places China needing a target module cost of $0.18-$0.19 come 2020 and later. That is where China hits grid parity and solar PV demand will explode. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190213/962352-2.shtml Definition of Parity online “The cost of PV system for I, II, and III resource areas requires 3.21, 3.37, and 3.28 yuan/W, respectively; the median of all regions, the threshold for national PV affordable Internet projects is 3.25 yuan/W.” Analysis of the cost reduction of PV parity online Based on the above parameters, the conclusions that can be calculated are: 1 The cost of the power station system is 4.2 yuan / W; 2 The internal rate of return of the project is 7.14%. Core conclusion: According to this standard, the current national photovoltaic ground power station system cost still needs to drop by 28% compared with the median level of 3.25 yuan/W national parity online. That is to say, the cost of photovoltaic power plant system will drop by 28% at the current level, and the country will implement large-scale (more than 50%) low-cost Internet access on the power generation side.
  42. 1 point
    I expect them to meet or slightly beat, though I haven't looked at the numbers in detail. They are basically sold out for the next two years at fixed prices, so imo that leaves little room for EPS surprises either up or down. Two positives are that prices in the U.S. are holding up well (despite the ominous 2.5GW quota for foreign cells) and that S6 certification is progressing as planned: https://www.pvinfolink.com/post.php?sn=2 https://investor.firstsolar.com/news/press-release-details/2018/First-Solar-Series-6-Completes-CSA-C450-Test-Protocol-at-CSA-Groups-PV-Test-Lab-CFV-Solar/default.aspx Imho FSLR will be quite boring over the next several quarters because they are transparent and predictable. If you prefer a roller coaster with 50% swings then I'd suggest to stick with the CNs.
  43. 1 point
    I am not Klothilde but I do have a few predictions for the upcoming earnings. First off, the company should declare a fairly large tax refund. In 2017 First Solar took a $405M hit to repatriate its overseas earnings due to the new tax bill. Considering the one-time rate was 15.5%, this seemed like a massive overpayment. Management has a history of overpaying taxes and then claiming a big refund. Unless I am mistaken this should provide a huge ($1.5-$2) EPS beat. The company has alluded to a potential refund in every earnings call and 10-Q this year. Here is what they said last time. "To relate, the U.S. tax reform enacted last December, we have not recorded any adjustment through Q3 related to our original estimates. We expect to finalize our accounting related to tax reform in Q4 based upon finalization of currently proposed tax regulations and the filing of our federal and state income tax returns." Also, during the guidance call the company hinted at possibly expanding in either Vietnam or Ohio. It wouldn't be to surprising for them to announce construction beginning on a third plant in Vietnam. Also, management mentioned getting started on 5GW of projects to qualify for the ITC Safe Harbor requirements. This should mean that the projects pipeline should grow dramatically in the next few quarters. Lastly, here's an article about a 135GW project getting developed in Cambodia. It would appear the company is still competitive internationally.
  44. 1 point
    I can see the past year has turned you into a more bitter fellow, which is unsurprising given the poor performance of most solar stocks but this needen't be the case in the coming years. I'm very grateful to this forum, specially Robert and H20 since I learnt a lot from both of these members and had large profits with Daqo in 2018. I just wanted to share my view that I believe it is probable that the solar sector is making another turn to the upside and long term bets could produce ample profits in the future. Solar still only ptovides 0.6% of the world's energy consumption, the growth potential is huge and CSIQ is in a great possition to capitalize it.
  45. 1 point
    Unloaded all of mine, except for a big bunch o' shares in my wife's 401k. I'm going to trade the heck out of it this year. But not gonna hold it for extended periods. Now if I can just get out of this FSLR garbage bag I'm holding, I'd be a happy guy.
  46. 1 point
    Wow, climate change is negatively impacting solar PV profits now..
  47. 1 point
    Defying gravity? Seem to take of easily these days.
  48. 1 point
    Says ASP's have already stabilized and will rise 10-15 percent this year. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-davos-meeting-solar-gcl/party-is-over-for-dirt-cheap-solar-panels-says-china-executive-idUSKCN1PI2OQ
  49. 1 point
    If your math is correct, they'd be smarter to just shut down their business right now.
  50. 1 point
    China unveils an ambitious new push on grid parity solar https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/01/10/china-unveils-an-ambitious-new-push-on-grid-parity-solar/


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