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  1. 2 points
    New CN policy looks to be targeting 2019 installations greater than 2018. Seems to set targets of around 45GW. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190219/963630.shtml According to the most conservative estimate, the installed capacity of photovoltaics will reach more than 45 million kilowatts in 2019, which has exceeded 44.26 million kilowatts in 2018 http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190219/963637.shtml In 2019, the subsidized rated installed capacity will be calculated according to the current expected 3 billion subsidy scale (excluding poverty alleviation). The subsidy intensity of the power subsidy is 0.075 yuan/kWh, and the subsidy scale is about 35.9 GW. (When the power subsidy intensity is 0.05 yuan/kWh, the subsidy scale is about 53.8GW), and then consider 5GW photovoltaic poverty alleviation and 5GW unsubsidized projects, and deduct about 1GW of household occupancy index after 2018 531, 2019 The installed capacity of photovoltaics in the year may reach 45GW, exceeding the installed capacity of 44.3GW in 2018.
  2. 2 points
    Awesome update from CSIQ. Beat on Q4.
  3. 2 points
    Hopefully not for a buyout at 18.60! Chuckle....
  4. 2 points
    The story of Canadian pipeline shrinking was heard loud and clear on this forum since Canadian plants were completed. The company is not only one pure developer still standing, but it is producing more and more business encompassing other arms of managing solar plants. It maintains healthy "sell and/or keep" strategy. There are many markets to go with solar plants. And those markets will expand. We have not seen any victims of the slowdowns with exception of few subs going bankrupt in China. There is plenty of space available. The manufacturing and the decisions made had worked thus far for the company. I am not sure why transformation, when required, would not be as well executed as it has been to date. Not sure why a successful organization would suddenly lose its footing. They are the most capable of a shift. FSLR has zero ability to shift, SPWR is dead, JKS is almost dead and will never be buried if it died, like Yingli, but CSIQ is somehow paralyzed and cannot make a move? I read those scenarios too many times. I argued against them as many, and I am surprised to see them again. Even Snake seems to be seeing Chinese taking FSLR to cleaners now. I do not have a skin in this game, but I think Canadian could surprise few folks here with its share price going forward. Cheers, I am back under the rock.
  5. 2 points
    While I understand (and, as a former [albeit small] JASO stockholder, share) the sentiment, I wouldn't put too much stock into this announcement (pun intended). First, since the guilty parties are all in China, I don't know if a US court has any jurisdiction over them. Second, Pomerantz are ambulance chasers. I've seen their name in dozens of headlines. A company will announce bad news one day, and the next half a dozen of these guys all announce lawsuits, including Pomerantz. I have never once heard of such a suit actually being successful. So this may be a Pyrrhic victory at best....
  6. 1 point
    I know their bifacial panels are a small part of CSIQ's sales, but wouldn't they suddenly become the panel of choice in the U.S. if they avoid the 30% tariff and are more efficient? Not sure where they are on costs, but that 30% off seems like a great place to start. Looks like it's up a bit after hours since news posted.
  7. 1 point
    https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2019/06/12/bifacial-beats-trumps-tariffs/ Always thought one day I'd get my money back on some FSLR shares I had at $70. I dumped every share I owned today at 61.50, so that'll never happen. This makes yesterday's strange attempted breakout look like some insider knew what was gonna happen. Now, to see how the analysts spin this and twist it up and spit it back out to us to move the stocks. I added to my CSIQ today.
  8. 1 point
    I think you need to take with a grain of salt their stated costs. Typically costs are quarters end stated for internal production with current quarterly claimed margins. They have a large deferred revenue recognition with respect to their project builds and module acceptance periods of customers. This means that a large portion 30% or more could be from earlier builds as much as 6 months earlier when their costs were much higher than Q4 stated. For example it takes 1 to 2 months to freight ship. It could take another 1 to 2 months to get them installed. The contracts may also have acceptance clauses that require 6 months of running for baseline output. This suggests that a good portion of the quarterly recognized modules for revenues could be deffered from quarters back. Just look at Q1 where there revenue recognized modules were 1423MW and shipped is about 150MW more. As they mentioned they have over 900MW of EPC projects going on. That is the potential of 250MW a quarter in deferred sales until completed and acceptance. As they roll into more and more NTP this will be worse as will some of their major customer contracts like the recent 1.8GW contract. You also need to understand that not only is the deffered sales hitting their cost structure but it also props up the ASP. They are also being selective and selling to high margin markets and have built a direct sales team. These all lead to the higher ASP as well. The ASP was covered in a reply to Colin Rush.
  9. 1 point
    I have a hard time confirming the $0.30 ASP. I do have theories after looking at revenue segments from the PR. The theory is that revenues of module sales is included in some of the other areas of revenues such as Kits OAM and ESS Projects. They shipped for Revenue 1423MW $371M for MSS solar modules and other products = $0.26 ASP If you add in $25M for kits , the ASP is $0.278 if you add in OAM you get $0.306 if you take MSS $431M you get $0.318 If you take MSS Kits OAM and Energy Projects you get $0.323 Clearly in MSS numbers some of the products is inverters rails etc as part of the kits. Lets presume Kits are 1/3 other costs $0.10 for inverters maybe $0.05 mounts connectors etc. This would reduce 8.3M from the revenue side and $0.006 in lowe ASP If OAM includes upgrades to modules, then there could be some module sales embedded inthose numbers. If say 20% of that is modules, then you lose about $0.022/W I presume that some of the Energy section could have embedded in it the module ASP for the NTP projects as sales. This could be as much as 70-80% of the services. That would lose about $0.01 on the above numbers. Very odd but my best guess is they took MSS numbers, at $453.1. This is $0.318. They subtracted out kits other costs and OAM non module costs(total of around $40M) or $0.028 And added in some NTP revenue say 50% or $0.008. That would get you around $0.298 ASP. This is just looking at the numbers and trying to figure where some of the module revenue would be recognized as a whole.
  10. 1 point
    CANADIAN SOLAR SET A WORLD RECORD OF 22.28% MULTI-CRYSTALLINE CELL CONVERSION EFFICIENCY http://investors.canadiansolar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/canadian-solar-set-world-record-2228-multi-crystalline-cell
  11. 1 point
    Well honeys the stock is up despite the heavy bashing earlier here. Let's just hope CSIQ behaves just as good after its ER. 🤪
  12. 1 point
    I've had my fair share of drama today with the kids so need no more. All these issues are peanuts compared to what's cooking at JKS's or CSIQ's. FSLR will make so much money over the next two years it s just obscene.
  13. 1 point
    I believe that article is incorrect in the period of the bookings. They PR'd http://ir.jinkosolar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/jinkosolar-secures-over-107-gw-orders-2019 "Jinko has announced they have contracted FOR 2019 10.7GW.." They did not state 10.7GW IN 2019 which would imply a 4 month bookings. This PR appears to be a cumulative statement for 2019 and not a new bookings in 2019. If that interpretation is correct, they have 3.3-4.3GW left to book for 2019. This would be bookings needed in the next 5 or 6 months. That is very attainable for them. This PR follows a notice of expanding 5GW of of Mono capacity pushing capacity to 11.5GW of Mono wafers. That is 500MW higher than previously guided in Q1. Phillip Shen asked some expansion questions the company indicated it needs some $400-$450M in Capex for the expansions this year. He also questioned them on the equity raising needed and where it comes from and it was clear they are looking at some equity raising. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4250602-jinkosolar-holding-co-ltd-jks-ceo-kangping-chen-q4-2018-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single Based on the 2 back to back PR's which are basically an affirmation of their intended capacity expansions and progress for sales in 2019, the company is likely looking for positive press and stock so they can raise equity to pay for the capacity expansion.
  14. 1 point
    Congratulations! Nice to hear you've hit your goal.
  15. 1 point
    Approaching 50% return less than 4 months into the year. Nothing special in solar world, but this time my capital preservation strategy is better. After a long time of focus on asset allocation optimization and verification of Alpha and Beta return attribution I've recently focused more on return contribution analysis in order to verify that the allocation does not contain any poor contributors due to flawed strategy or tactic. I think that this continuous qualification of the strategy and tactic is key to long-term performance success. --- Goal Financial independence by 2030 Objective 15% annual return @ 25% volatility Strategy Rebalance optimal allocation Tactic Buy the dips and hold the rips Allocation Return
  16. 1 point
    Not sure, I'd guess 24-25 cts on a comparable basis.
  17. 1 point
    Looks like H2/2019 in China will be explosive: with about 15 GW PV installations per quarter... https://www.pv-tech.org/news/chinas-new-subsidy-programme-could-support-up-to-50gw-says-official
  18. 1 point
    Updated investor presentation out: http://investors.canadiansolar.com/static-files/48509dd8-8e15-4d99-90f8-c22fa89905f8 Anything interesting you guys? I noticed they've started playing with quasi-mono. But why?
  19. 1 point
    Hmmm, Q4 DQ had 61% production being mono. In Q1 they are forecasting 78% of their production will be mono. To me that sounds like the Multi ASP drop will not impact them significantly for now. As you can see from their transcript below they indicate that Mono would not drop much due to the production costs of most online. In fact they were suggesting due to ratios of mono vs multi poly and much better pricing on Mono and more production Q1 should be improved margins. As for the price tightening, when everyone refines and moves from junk poly to mono quality, then the Si price for Poly wafer production will rebound as the glut will be less. That price rebound for poly would create a narrowing in the price gap. That suggests that that while Mono may decline some, it will not necessarily decline much since the Mono wafers is ramping much faster this year in wafer productions vs last year. Now to add to that DQ, is suggesting they will reduce cash costs to $6.0/KG. That is close to 20% from the Q4 producton costs, This means that they can easily maintain profitability with handle the price dropping 20% from Q4 levels to $~8/KG . When you recognize they will have 2x the capacity and $6/Kg cost, the spread and margins can be narrower and they can make more money than now come 2020. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4248446-daqo-new-energy-corp-dq-ceo-longgen-zhang-q4-2018-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single "For example, I can say an example, in Q4, our monosilicon supply is around 61%. So, if you look our gross margin, our monosilicon price ASP is around like $10 and the multi is around $6.30 or whatever. Our ASP is around like renminbi is around like – US dollar maybe around like $9.50. So, we see in Q1, we will get more improved our gross margin, the reason because first of all, the monosilicon percentage will increase to around 77%, 78%,"
  20. 1 point
    Just like you've been predicting Daqo to lose money for the last three quarters and every time you were wrong. They don't need prices to rise (although that would be a nice bonus). They just need prices to stabilize somewhere, and to have costs below that. So far, their cost-cutting has managed to stay ahead of the price declines. I see no reason for that to cease.
  21. 1 point
    PEGI has been one of my better buys - steady climb and paying great divi
  22. 1 point
    You are reading the tea leaves wrong. They do not need a $2 spread in 2020. They needed a $2 spread at past 6KMT production levels. For 2019 they are guiding 37-40KMT. They will earn $1 a share on a $1.50 spread before subsidy payments and taxes. In October Nov they will have the Phase 4A starting trial production. They should be ramped 70KMT come January 2020(9 months for now). That 70KMT will produce around 80-90KMT of poly. At a $1 spread that is $80-$90M gross. SGNA is $8.2M today and might go to say $12M. Interest is $2M a Q. That is $56M expenses when 70KMT is ramped. They will earn $24-$34M before taxes adjustments and subsidies in 2020 based on a $1 spread. That is $2-$3 in earnings. For every $0.025 above that $1 spread they will gross an added $20M that goes straight to the bottom line. A $0.50 spread could add $3-$4 a share potential upside to $5-$7 a share in 2020. That and think what happens to FSLR with Poly cost and the rest of the CN costs dropping 30-40% over the next 2-4 years. That is what you should be worried about.
  23. 1 point
    So they wrote off the inventory last couple Q's and now they sell it and claim revenue with great margins. What a scam. I thought that would be put under other income and not revenues.
  24. 1 point
    Well the transcript is out and Philip Shen got us the answers to our questions. The extra revenue was from Chonqing inventory sell-off of non-poly crap like ingots and poly-blocks. They seemed to have sold off everything so 2019 will be clean. And the subsidies are basically tax returns which will continue to varying degrees over the next years always in Q4. They also give some good info on production mix and prices which will help to pinpoint EPS over the next quarters I think: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4248446-daqo-new-energy-corp-dq-ceo-longgen-zhang-q4-2018-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single
  25. 1 point
    What confuses me is they had added an additional revenue of around $6M based on poly asp and volumes. I am not certain where this comes from? Written off wafers? This other income amounted to around $4.5M profits or 60% gross margins. This is looking at revenues and gross profits less the revenue generated from Poly sales of 7030 and their claimed costs.
  26. 1 point
    energytrend says demand is weak: https://www.energytrend.com/pricequotes/20190307-13440.html
  27. 1 point
    My estimize numbers are 0.16 and 75. Though it is highly possible that DQ uses the lousy 2018 4Q to clean up all the loose ends and write down the kitchen sink. If there is value in that inventory, etc. they just sell it and reconcile on the positive side for 1Q. So Klothhilde could be the winner here with a negative 4Q number. I agree with a turn up in the 2Q and continuous improvements throughout the year.
  28. 1 point
    If you were wondering why JKS has dumped, patent infringement cases filed against Jinko and Longi and the REC Group by QCells for stealing and using their patented quantum technology. They are trying to block them from the US and European Union markets among others. https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2019/03/05/hanwha-q-cells-sues-jinko-longi-and-rec-for-patent-infringement/
  29. 1 point
    OMG I just noticed that I already had a Q4 estimate back in November. Here's my update. I've just posted in on estimize. OMG I'm the only one forecasting a loss. It's so exciting to be competing against WS names like Philip Shen. Wish me luck you guys! Volume sold: 7200T ASP: $9.8/kg cost: $8.7/kg Gross: $8.3M OPEX&NI: $11.2M EPS: -$0.18 before adjustments P.D. anybody else have an estimate?
  30. 1 point
    Q1 sales are generally announced near the end of Q1 or a couple weeks into Q2. They also are relying more and more on EPC contracted work from projects they did sell in the past before completed.
  31. 1 point
    Ah, I see, you are narrowly looking at the word Green New Deal and suggesting it is strictly power. Green means many things. Like Getting Chemicals our of building materials. Getting harmful chemicals out of the ground and water. Having healthy natural foods that are not processed or altered (GMO) or hormone injected being fed to to us. Medicines that are consumed and then pissed into the water systems polluting the water. Broaden your scope and this New Deal lays out a template of objectives that are good goals to want to achieve.
  32. 1 point
    JKS' double in 3 months (almost a triple in 4 months) combined with a massive contract with DQ announce the other day (a.k.a. expansion) smells like a secondary is coming.
  33. 1 point
    It's taking off folks! Watch out for 40 before August, now is not the time to take a quick buck.
  34. 1 point
    You have not only the trade war, but the unwinding of the ITC tax credits that will come creating pricing pressures. This year the ITC is 30% tax credit , next years projects qualify for 26% in 2020 and 22% in 2021. The ITC falls to 10% for commercial and grid after 2021. As the S6 ramps, the projects costs are going to have to drop 25% over the next 3 years. This will be heavily felt in the module ASP as it is some 30-40% of the cost to build in the U.S.
  35. 1 point
    Who says I don't believe the outlook is shiny? Just because I warn against investing in some solar companies doesn't mean I don't believe in solar. In fact I think I'm one of the fiercest believers in solar here.
  36. 1 point
    Europe bounces back in 2018, and 2019 will be bigger. https://www.rechargenews.com/transition/1707217/eu-solar-bounces-back-in-2018-led-by-german-and-dutch-push?utm_source=Recharge+Daily+Newsletter&utm_campaign=c4c2e4fe31-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_02_21_09_00&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_8680971c0c-c4c2e4fe31-19444157
  37. 1 point
    Chinese city wants 700 MW of new solar within two years: The announcement from the city authorities comes in the wake of the central government’s call for local authorities, electricity companies and big lenders to remove roadblocks to what it designated ‘grid-parity’ PV projects, by which it meant installations which did not benefit from central subsidies but which could be encouraged by local incentives. https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/02/14/chinese-city-wants-700-mw-of-new-solar-within-two-years/
  38. 1 point
    I am not Klothilde but I do have a few predictions for the upcoming earnings. First off, the company should declare a fairly large tax refund. In 2017 First Solar took a $405M hit to repatriate its overseas earnings due to the new tax bill. Considering the one-time rate was 15.5%, this seemed like a massive overpayment. Management has a history of overpaying taxes and then claiming a big refund. Unless I am mistaken this should provide a huge ($1.5-$2) EPS beat. The company has alluded to a potential refund in every earnings call and 10-Q this year. Here is what they said last time. "To relate, the U.S. tax reform enacted last December, we have not recorded any adjustment through Q3 related to our original estimates. We expect to finalize our accounting related to tax reform in Q4 based upon finalization of currently proposed tax regulations and the filing of our federal and state income tax returns." Also, during the guidance call the company hinted at possibly expanding in either Vietnam or Ohio. It wouldn't be to surprising for them to announce construction beginning on a third plant in Vietnam. Also, management mentioned getting started on 5GW of projects to qualify for the ITC Safe Harbor requirements. This should mean that the projects pipeline should grow dramatically in the next few quarters. Lastly, here's an article about a 135GW project getting developed in Cambodia. It would appear the company is still competitive internationally.
  39. 1 point
    Nah, not bitter at all. In fact I've been rather excited and bullish since Christmas, having dug out of my CSIQ hole and made a handsome profit at the same time. It's just the last time we heard from you, DQ was going to $100 or something and it promptly went to $20. So you're a bit of a contrarian indicator. Longer term, I agree though and ain't going anywhere... party is just starting.
  40. 1 point
    More on PG&E with commentary on the solar aspect as well as those companies most affected... https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2019/01/27/pge-gets-a-break-and-opportunity-is-still-knocking/#3767dfe56d10
  41. 1 point
    My second recommendation is Sangamo Therapeutics, SGMO. By Feb 7, the company will have a delivery of the results in MPS II and MPS I. They are first in the world to edit the human genome in vivo. MPS II results were released in September where the application reduced negative byproduct GAGs. In Feb expectation is to confirm that IDS enzyme is produced therefore GAGs are reduced by patients' production of IDS, a deficit of the enzyme is a sole root-cause of MPS II disease. The stock volatility may be very high. However, for those with risk acceptance, now and next 7 trading days from today, the stock could move 10 to 15%. If something fails a 20 to 30% may be experienced on Feb 7. There are more stories to this company. If I will see that Feb 7 is validated I will offer a bigger summary. Proceed at your own risk and good luck.
  42. 1 point
    Defying gravity? Seem to take of easily these days.
  43. 1 point
    SWEET!!!! So prices are expected to rise, while everyone keeps cutting costs. Means margins will inflate. And with over 100 GW being installed worldwide year after year, volume is no problem. Good volume + increasing margins = good profit growth! Could we finally be on the verge of turning the corner--permanently?! The optimism in this article certainly explains the rise in share prices we've seen across the board recently. Think I'll keep my still-underwater positions in CSIQ, JKS, and DQ a bit longer.
  44. 1 point
    FSLR nowhere in sight by the way...
  45. 1 point
    Here is a news: China ready to set 3 GW quota for residential solar in 2019 https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/01/24/china-ready-to-set-3-gw-quota-for-residential-solar-in-2019/
  46. 1 point
    I believe at the time of the spinoff they had only something like 125MW of their 1GW plus in the catalog. The next catalog that came out I believe after the spinoff should have added about 300-400MW more leaving some 800MW not in the catalog. Then of course there is the GW or so a year they were adding after the spinoff that would not be in the catalog. Those post spinoff projects were funded by modules being sold by Jinko with little or no payment down. Those modules are now AR's and notess receivables. Some of the "revenues and profits" from Jinko are from those sales to Jinko New Energy which are at risk of default as well. The CEO is using JKS to float his spinoff. I do not trust Jinko Chairman to have the shareholders interest at heart.
  47. 1 point
    I would be concerned about JKS. They are the guarantor of the debt they spun off with the New Energy spinoff. A very large portion of those projects were not in the catalog and not getting the FIT payments.
  48. 1 point
    GP $620-$700M. Opex $430M+/- Interest $100M+/- ASP $0.27 CPW $0.235(13%GM) on 8GW shipments for revenues The wild card are project sales revenue , power revenues and EPC revenues. Project 130MW Japan @ 3.30 @ 30%GM 700MW @ 1.2/W @ 12.5%GM Power Revenues/Dividend Incomes $40M @ 50%GM EPC $150M @ 15%GM
  49. 1 point
    Nice to see CSIQ hitting 52-week highs, getting business globally, becoming independent off commodity material swings. I read commentary how they going to fall on their face with their multi products. Not likely if they build solar parks with them as a major user. CSIQ adaptability to business cycles seems superior to any other listed company. And surprisingly the market is recognizing it. Days of $40 per share may not be gone but if anything CSIQ has a chance to reach that in a couple years.
  50. 1 point
    A 30% return based on the date of the post and today's closing. The stock is at just above $1.3B market. Two M&A actions, BMY, and CELG mentioned by explo and LLY buying LEXO are putting a bit of fire on the buyout candidates. BMY and Pfizer is a maker of Eliquis and JNJ and Bayer make Xarelto. Andexxa made by Portola is an antidote for the two drugs. Eliquis is more dominant in sales, between overall markets some $12 or $13B in sales in 2019 and more with an available antidote. Now JNJ and Beyer wanted to use Xarelto in the area where Bevyxxa another Portola drug is already approved. Since BMY bought Celgene, JNJ purchase of Portola seems very logical. There is a sense that Portola can help JNJ and the perception that Xarelto has more bleeds with Andexxa. Bottom line Portola is a candidate for a buyout and JNJ seems like a potential buyer. At 4 times of Andexxa $1B sales and perhaps $500M for Bevyxxa when fully running, $6B looks like $96 per share. This will not happen tomorrow, but there is a good potential that stock could be $70 by Q3 of this year. Good Luck.


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